RJ Bell NFL Playoff notess at pregame.com 42 NFL Playoff Facts I am considering . . .
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 13797
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Add Friend | Follow Posted on Fri, Jan 4 2013 10:24 AM
Bengals at Texans -4.5
opened -5
How bad Texans last quarter of season?
Covered home game against Colts by 2-points.
Other three games, lost against the spread by: 25 points, 23 points, and 17 points
Marvin Lewis has never won a playoff game.
Bengals best defense in football during second half of season: giving up less than 13 points per game.
In the last 4 games,
Texans covered by 2-points at home vs. Colts
In the other three games,
they lost against the spread by: 25 points, 23 points, and 17 points.
Houston: 2 offensive TDs the last 3 games
Vikings at Packers -7.5
opened -8
GB: won 32 last 39 games
In division, Packers have won 12 of 13 SU
and covered 23 of 32 in division
Minny does not do well against good teams:
covering only 7 of 23 vs. team with winning record
Packers: Super Bowl favorite entering season.
Vikings: 100 to 1 entering season.
In games played at home, December or later:
Packers 39-19 against the spread since 1992
Underdogs of a touchdown or more have covered 60% the last 10 playoffs.
Last 15 times Green Bay lost against the spread, covered next game 13 times.
Colts at Ravens -7
opened -6.5
Colts only team in the first round of playoffs with >55% of bets.
Other 11 playoff teams outscored opponents by a combined 1,215 points on the season (average of over +110 per team on the season). Colts only negative team: outscored by 30 points on season.
Colts are the first time in NFL history to win 11 games with a negative point differential.
Other 11 teams +110 in turnover differential.
Colts: -12 turnover differential
Andrew Luck – more INTs than TDs on road
26th rated QB in NFL
5 straight games Andrew Luck has not complete more than half his passes
That’s the longest such streak for an NFL starter in over a decade.
Vegas rankings Colts at 19th best team.
Flacco at home: 34-7 SU (21-20 ATS)
Joe Flacco has more playoff starts (9) than the seven other quarterbacks playing in the wildcard round combined (7 starts).
Coach Pagano defensive coordinator for Ravens last season.
Indy: easiest schedule of any NFL team.
Among Colts road games, played: Jets, Titans, Jags, Lions, Chiefs
Even with that easy schedule: on road: 3rd worst yards per play in entire league.
Baltimore: 2nd BEST offense at home in NFL, measured by yards per play.
On the road: 3rd WORST offense in NFL.
Seattle at Redskins +3
opened pick’em
How much has changed in last quarter of season?
In week 12, Seattle was favored by 3-points at Miami
Now favored by 3 visiting the NFC East division winner.
Seattle: Only 4 NFL ranked higher by Vegas
RG3 still injured.3rd best QB rating.
Russell Wilson: 4th best QB rating.
Coach Carroll experienced against college-type offenses
Seattle on road since 2002: 37% ATS (31-52-1)
Redskins: Weak at home
Seattle: 3rd best point differential: behind only Denver and New England.
Seattle’s offense improved massively in second half of season.
Redskins defensive improved massively in second half of season.
Home underdogs only 1 game above .500 ATS last 10 playoffs.
Week 7 onward in true away games for Seattle:
Beat Bears in final 2 minutes, and 0-3 otherwise, losing at Detroit and at Miami.
Redskins: 9-1 SU when Pierre Garcon plays this season
No team gains more offensive yards per play than Washington.
Playoff-wide:
Prior 10 playoffs, underdogs 55.6% ATS (home dogs actually slightly worse: 7-6)
Teams that lost last game of regular season: 45% ATS (last 10 playoffs)
Think Colts will beat Vikings in Super Bowl? $10 wins $12,000
Most likely Super Bowl result? Broncos over 49ers
