Ruminations About BUF's Playoff Chances I am not a BUF fan. But I know a lot of them. They tend to be the most blindly loyal of professional sports fans.
After yesterday, I have heard many of them contend that if BUF wins @IND on Sunday, BUF has an inside track to the playoffs. BUF fans tend to do this - they easily overreact. I can remember last season how excited many of them were after BUF demolished DEN. I then reminded them that BUF was eliminated from playoff contention before that game had even started. Blank stares.
Anyway, it got me thinking about whether BUF could actually end the longest current playoff drought in the league, and maybe sneak into the last WC spot. A few things made me really think about this, including that BUF has an insanely easy final 6 games, and that the AFC is down this year.
The following is what I came with to share with BUF fans. I share it here just because I already did the work, and, what the hell, it's something to post on a sports handicapping site.
If you think I missed some things, and BUF's chances are better or worse, let's hear it. I'll be seeing some BUF folks for the holiday, and they'll undoubtedly need to be corrected, so I'd like to make sure I've got the most probable scenarios down.
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Don’t plan your playoff party just yet if BUF wins @ IND in WK 12. Even with major assumptions in BUF’s favor, it will still be difficult for BUF to make the playoffs.
Let’s assume the following:
1. BUF goes 5-1 down the stretch to finish 9-7 (even the die hardest BUF fan has to concede finishing 6-0 is unlikely);
2. BUF’s 1 loss is either SEA in WK 15 (in Toronto, so not really a home game) or @ MIA in WK 16;
3. BUF wins @ IND, JAX, STL, and NYJ.
This makes BUF’s record, in the following the format – Overall Record, Conference Record – either 9-7, 6-6 (SEA W) or 9-7, 7-5 (MIA W).
Presently, there are 5 teams ahead of BUF for the 2 WC spots, in order: IND, PIT, CIN, SD, TEN, and NYJ.
A cursory review of TEN’s (@ JAX, HOU, IND, NYJ, @ GB, JAX) and NYJ’s (NE, ARI, @ JAX, @ TEN, SD, @BUF) remaining games, especially assuming BUF beats NYJ in WK 17, revaels that it is unlikely either team gets to 9-7.
That leaves IND, PIT, CIN, and SD ahead of BUF for the 2 WC spots.
Strangely, SD looks to have the best chance to finish 9-7 with games left BAL, CIN, @ PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK. SD is quite capable of winning 3 out of BAL, CIN, @ PIT, and @ NYJ, especially given that: (a) BAL is not a good road team (immensely underwhelming road wins over KC, CLE, and Leftwich-led PIT) and Flacco’s road splits are really bad; (b) CIN, under Marvin Lewis, is an awful WC team (2-8 since 2003); (c) the Roethlisberger injury; and, (d) NYJ will probably be eliminated by WK 16.
With SD finishing 5-1, and winning 3 out of BAL, CIN, @ PIT, and @NYJ, they finish 9-7, 8-4 (assuming they win CAR and OAK).
BUF can’t beat a 8-4 conference record because it is, right now, already 3-5 in the AFC, and each team plays only 12 conference games. So, if both SD and BUF finish 9-7, SD gets the tie-breaker because of the better conference record. [Note: SD cannot finish with a 7-5 conference record without also finishing 8-8, or worse. SD is 4-3 in the conference right now, so losing 2 more games means they will have lost 8 games total, since they are 4-6 right now. Said another way, if SD finishes 9-7, SD will necessarily have the better conference record than BUF. SD will either be 9-7 with an 8-4 conference record, or 8-8 overall or worse.].
So, that will likely leave BUF fighting IND, PIT, and CIN for a final WC spot. It’s unlikely that all of IND, PIT, and CIN finish 8-8, or worse. Also, if BUF beats IND in WK 12, it’s not likely IND then wins 4 of its last 5 (@DET, TEN, @HOU, @KC, HOU) to get to 10 wins. If IND goes 3-2 over its last 5, BUF would still have the head-to-head tie-breaker if BUF also finishes at 9-7. So, IND is probably out if they lose to BUF in WK 12.
It’s not likely CIN will win 5 of its last 6 (OAK, @SD, DAL, @PHI, @PIT, BAL) to finish 10-6. And, if CIN goes 3-2 over its last 5 to finish at 9-7, BUF will still likely have a better conference record (assuming it wins 9 games) for the tie-breaker over CIN. So, CIN is probably drawing dead if BUF finishes 5-1.
That brings us to PIT. For PIT to finish 8-8, they’d likely have to lose @CLE, @BAL, SD, and @DAL. If, however, PIT even wins one of @CLE, @BAL, or SD, and still wins only 9 games, they likely finish with the same conference record as BUF (assuming they beat CIN and CLE in WKs 16 and 17), if BUF loses @MIA and beats SEA in Toronto (6-6). In that case, if PIT wins the @CLE game, PIT wins the tie-breaker because it likely will have a better record than BUF among the common opponents with BUF (NYJ, TEN, KC, CLE). If PIT instead wins @BAL or SD, and splits with CLE, making the common opponent record the same, and wins only 9 games, then it likely comes down to strength of victory, where PIT will also likely have the edge since it will probably beat three 7-9 to 8-8 teams (NYJ, CIN, DAL) and one really good team (NYG), while the best team BUF might have beaten winds up being 9-7 (IND).
BUF’s best chance seems to be making SEA in Toronto their last loss (thereby winning @MIA). That would make BUF’s conference record 7-5. PIT is presently 3-4 in the conference, with 5 conference games left (@CLE, @BAL, SD, CIN, CLE). If BUF wins @MIA, and PIT only wins 9 games, PIT would have to, presumably without Roethlisberger, win 4 out of @CLE, @BAL, SD, CIN, and CLE to finish with a 7-5 conference record, which would make them 10-6 anyway. Or, PIT will just have to win 4 out of all of its remaining games, conference notwithstanding, to get to 10-6 (this would mean beating DAL, and wining 3 out of @CLE, @BAL, SD, CIN, and CLE).
So, to review, for BUF to make the playoffs, they likely need the following to happen:
1. BUF goes 5-1 down the stretch; and,
2. BUF has to win @IND (doable, since IND has a terrible defense), SEA in Toronto (very difficult, and, by the way, thanks a lot Ralph for sending another important home game out of town) or @MIA (doable since MIA has no offense), and NYJ; and,
3. Roethlisberger to stay injured; and,
4. PIT loses a game to CLE (possible given the Roethlisberger injury, but then you are still counting on CLE to do something against the PIT defense); and,
5. PIT loses 2 of @BAL, SD, @DAL, CIN (seems unlikely given the way PIT’s defense is playing right now, the fact that BAL/PIT seems like every game turns on one play, DAL’s mediocrity, and the SD and CIN games being at home); and,
6. SD loses 2 out of BAL, CIN, @ PIT, and @ NYJ.
Also, if you paid attention above, you realize how absolutely CRUSHING Fitzfraudulent’s late INT against TEN, and, consequently, BUF’s loss in that game, was. If BUF, wins that game, it: (a) increases BUF’s conference record, which comes into play vis a vis SD and PIT; and, (b) increases BUF’s record against common opponents with SD and PIT.
Footnotes:
1. Ralph sending games to Toronto absolutely sucks for BUF. In 2008, BUF was 6-6 going into the TOR game, and lost a divisional game to MIA in December. In 2009, BUF lost another divisional game, this time to NYJ in December. In 2010, BUF lost again, this time to CHI. In 2011, BUF finally won a game against a John Beck-led WAS team that was circling the drain at the time. So, BUF’s prospects this year for the game against SEA don’t look good, making the game @MIA all that more critical.
2. The IND win in WK 12 is also critical. BUF needs to win this game.
3. If you are a BUF fan, then, right now, you are also a huge CLE fan. You need CLE to beat PIT once.
4. If you are a BUF fan, as bad as it sounds, you are hoping Roethlisberger stays injured.
