[QUOTE=Fezzik;12214]Solve by inspection good. If I had Atl on the ML, I would have been cursing the second the fake materialized.
The very worst time to kick a fg is when up 3. Going up to 6, we have often joked, seems to almost reduce your chance of winning. Up 3, the other team seems to get complacent, settle for a long 3 attempt, and a lot of things have to go wrong to lose.
Up 6, they know what they want ( a td) and go for your throat.
Ok, it IS better to be up by 6 than 3, but my point is that your chance of winning just doesn't go up all that dramatically. I would imagine that fake would work at least 1/2 the time, and it wins the game.
NE/Indy all over again. Brilliant Call. The Goats disagree IMO.[/QUOTE]
I was going to mention the similarities to poker. By going for it here, you increase the chance that your opponent (the coach on the other sideline) will make a big mistake. Down 6 he makes no mistake cuz it's obvious he needs a TD. Down 3 they often play for the tie, as you mention, even when that's a horrible decision as a double digit dog.