Sample Side Write-Up From Prof Meyer Here is a sample write-up.
As always, comments and criticisms welcome.
4-Star Oakland +1.5 over KANSAS CITY – The Chiefs have been a TD-plus dog for each of their last five games. Here they are a favorite – a role that they just can’t handle. In their three games as a favorite this season the Chiefs have lost 41-7, 31-3 and 17-10. They has scored an average of less than 7 ppg. Not only that, Kansas City is 0-8 ATS since 2007 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent. Check it out with this straightforward SDQL text:
team=Chiefs and F and DIV and season>=2007
Note that their lone STRAIGHT UP win in this spot was a 10-6 win over the Broncos laying 8. Note further that they have failed to cover by an average of 13.8 ppg!
Last week Orton was not sacked at all and the Chiefs got to Aaron Rogers four times. This has been a strong negative indicator for the Chiefs, as they are 0-10 ATS when they are off a home game in which they recorded at least three sacks, failing to cover by an average of 15.3 ppg. The SDQL is:
315 and season>=2007
In their only SU win in this spot, they needed overtime to beat the Bills 13-10 as a seven-point favorite.
The Raiders are not a good team – but they have their play-on spots and this is one of them. Last week, they allowed four TDs at home and lost 28-27. Well, Oakland is 9-0 ATS as a dog after allowing at least four touchdowns at home, covering by an average of 14.9 ppg. The SDQL text is:
po:TD>=4 and team=Raiders and D and p:H and season>=2007
Note that the Raiders have won their last five in this spot STRAIGHT UP, including their 24-17 win as a TD dog vs the Chargers this season.
Also, Oakland has faced five straight non-divisional opponents. This is relevant, because Oakland is 6-0 ATS on the road vs a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, covering by a whopping 15.2 ppg on the average.
Many may cite getting to the playoffs as the Raiders’ motivation here, but we believe that the main source of Oakland’s passion will be the embarrassing 28-0 shutout loss they experienced at home in week 7 to these Chiefs. MTi’s FORECAST: Oakland 13 KANSAS CITY 6
