Sb props!

I don't get the bet on TOs. New Orleans is +17 in TOs, Ind is +4. WTF! Plus you have to lay big juice. This looks like a square bet for sure.

[QUOTE=npc;16365]Um, isn't this one of those "correlation does not imply causation" things? That is, the winner of the turnover battle is very likely to be the game winner, but it isn't very predictive? Said another way, for this to be a good bet wouldn't it have to be the case that SB teams that are *favored* would be 12-8 or better to make this a good bet at -135? I don't have this data lying around, so I don't know if this is the case or not. Of course, if you already know that the Colts will win the game, then this is a pretty good bet, but I can think of at least one better bet... . :-)[/QUOTE] It's a little bit of both. A team that turns it over in a close game will lose more often as a result.. But also, the team that is behind is more likely to take chances and turn it over. I'm sure pregame favorites would show a solid edge in the turnover battle all other things being equal.

TOs ARE predictive of the SU winner. The conclusion SHOULD be to bet New Orleans, not to bet Ind to have fewer TOs being 13 TOs behind NO for the season.

[QUOTE=Old School;16377]TOs ARE predictive of the SU winner. The conclusion SHOULD be to bet New Orleans, not to bet Ind to have fewer TOs being 13 TOs behind NO for the season.[/QUOTE] arent you arguing the same point? but with different conclusions as to the SU winner? i would think the season record is independent of the point fezzik is making. and i wonder how many of these props were actually bet with no buying back. if the saints win, much of these props are in jeopardy.

[QUOTE=roll your own;16378]arent you arguing the same point? but with different conclusions as to the SU winner? i would think the season record is independent of the point fezzik is making. and i wonder how many of these props were actually bet with no buying back. if the saints win, much of these props are in jeopardy.[/QUOTE] The fact that New Orleans is +17 in TOs, and the fact that Ind is +4 in TOs is NOT something that anyone should ignore IMO. Fezzik is talking like Boston Red did about the NE/Carolina SB. He starts with his gut feeling that IND will win, because New Orleans struggled with Min who had an old QB. WOW! What "in depth" analysis. No need to compare the ypp or the QB ratings (I have New Orleans with a small advantage). No need to look at the injuries. No need to look at the rushing offenses. Has any team LAST in rushing ever won the SB? I think not. Forget all that. New Orleans was lucky to beat a team with an old QB (and the NFL officially admitted that New Orleans should have been penalized 15 yards on the play where Favre was intercepted, putting Min on the 19 yard line, thus being +EV to win the game SU). Ind beat two teams without balanced offenses. New Orleans has a great, balanced offense. Ind is hurting with one of their best defensive players out (Sanders) and Freeney a big ? Forget all that. Go with your gut!

I agree with your analysis, but what I am trying to say is fezzik makes a valid point and is actually teaching a lot, stats and guts aside. Instead of laying -2XX on the ml, the prop is cheaper and will accomplish the same goal 80 to 90% of the time. Kind of like the guy who pointed out manning mvp -250 is rediculous as colts ml is cheaper. personally, i am on saints+6, saints +195, and teased +6 and under. i havent heard much talk on the total, that was my gut.

SAints +17 not predictive IMO Saints were -6 and higher in those games. OF COURSE they won the T.O. battle. Let's see them do it GETTING 4.5! The Colts don't fumble. For the Saints lovers, we will be loading up on Saints props Sunday.......

[QUOTE=Fezzik;16385]Saints were -6 and higher in those games. OF COURSE they won the T.O. battle. Let's see them do it GETTING 4.5! The Colts don't fumble. For the Saints lovers, we will be loading up on Saints props Sunday.......[/QUOTE] New Orleans was +11 in TOs when favored by less than 6 points. Ind was -1 in TOs when favored by less than 6 points. Plus, a strong pass rush is crucial to forcing TOs, and Freeney's injury should reduce Ind's pass rush.

Just looking at interceptions, New Orleans had a 27 to 12 edge; Ind had a 19-20 disadvantage.

Pretty sure the stats that should be given the most weight on this one is who turns the ball over the most, not who took it away. Colts are the superior team if looked at that way. Fumbles lost 2009: Colts 5 Saints 16 INTs thrown 2009: Manning 16 Brees 11 Colts don't fumble. Saints high INTS on D can be partially explained by having opponent in must-pass situations quite a bit through-out the year. Less of a chance of that happening here. Same could probably apply to Colts although they played more close games where opp must-pass wasn't the case.