Sb props!

[QUOTE=frankb22;16396]Pretty sure the stats that should be given the most weight on this one is who turns the ball over the most, not who took it away. Colts are the superior team if looked at that way. Fumbles lost 2009: Colts 5 Saints 16 INTs thrown 2009: Manning 16 Brees 11 Colts don't fumble. Saints high INTS on D can be partially explained by having opponent in must-pass situations quite a bit through-out the year. Less of a chance of that happening here. Same could probably apply to Colts although they played more close games where opp must-pass wasn't the case.[/QUOTE] Yes, Ind played a lot of close games, and Ind rarely ran the ball (thus fewer fumbles). In common games, NO is +7, Ind is -2. IND won 7 games by 4 or less, in addition to their two losses. NO lost 2 games by more than 4. The bottom line is that NO should be FAVORED to be + in TOs, not a big dog.

>>Ind played a lot of close games, and Ind rarely ran the ball (thus fewer fumbles).

[QUOTE=frankb22;16396] Saints high INTS on D can be partially explained by having opponent in must-pass situations quite a bit through-out the year. Less of a chance of that happening here. Same could probably apply to Colts although they played more close games where opp must-pass wasn't the case.[/QUOTE] Or is it that many Saints picks and defensive TD's turned close games into blowouts? Colts beat 2 9-7 teams that were very flawed; Saints beat the 3rd best team in NFL that actually may have the most talent but shaky coach and a QB that has imploded late in playoff games for a decade. Manning is awesome and the defense is underrated but lets not overrate his "team" as being "great". This is hardly a team comparable to say the 2004 Pats who were 14-2 and beat I believe a 12 or 13 win team (Colts) and then a 15-1 exceptional team on the road (albeit Big Ben was a rookie) and then only beat the Eagles by 3. That Pats team is one of the top 10 and maybe top 5 team of all time, this Colts team is not nearly as good. How can't you like the Saints getting more than 4??? Especially with the better coach, running game and one of the 3 best QB's in the NFL that negates much of the Colts biggest edge (Manning) against evey other team in the NFL except New England (b/c of Brady)? Good luck

Colts are as fundamentally sound as any team which has a lot to do with their success. They don't make a lot of mistakes. Few penalties, don't fumble, Manning does not take sacks. Those things do not jump out of the box score or get mentions on TV but they make a team tough to beat. Saints D will throw everything at Manning. Whether they are successful at causing problems will determine who wins. They tried to do similar vs Vikes and results were very volatile. They hit Farve and got a couple picks but they also made Bernard Berrian look like Jerry Rice in the process. Collie and Clark will be problems if they send extra men at Peyton.

I like Saints, but very cool insight. Saints might want to take a page from 49ers coach Bill Walsh defending the high flying Miami Dolphins in the Super Bowl in 1985. Marino broke the passing yards record that year and threw for 48 TD's. Miami could not run the ball though. In the Super Bowl Walsh played a nickel defense the whole game and a dime defense on obvious passing situations and dared Miami to run, they still couldn't. 49ers blew out Miami. Saints should play a nickel and not blitz much. Blitzing wont work vs Manning, he is too good and too smart.

[QUOTE=frankb22;16446]Colts are as fundamentally sound as any team which has a lot to do with their success. They don't make a lot of mistakes. Few penalties, don't fumble, Manning does not take sacks. Those things do not jump out of the box score or get mentions on TV but they make a team tough to beat. Saints D will throw everything at Manning. Whether they are successful at causing problems will determine who wins. They tried to do similar vs Vikes and results were very volatile. They hit Farve and got a couple picks but they also made Bernard Berrian look like Jerry Rice in the process. Collie and Clark will be problems if they send extra men at Peyton.[/QUOTE] It appears all that hitting won them the game, despite Berrian looking like J Rice, according to Bus Cook and his photos of the bad bruising....BTW you never see Favre's face in any of those pictures of the alleged bruised thigh and swollen/bruised ankle/foot do you.....hmmmm I love Wayne over 5.5 catches...especially after Revis on him last week. I also think Henderson vs Garcon in yards is a coin flip...my man has Henderson +12.5. Hate to say my Fantasy football passion influences me but the 3rd or 4th receiving option very very rarely has back 2 back big games. Good luck

[QUOTE=frankb22;16446]Saints D will throw everything at Manning. Whether they are successful at causing problems will determine who wins. [/QUOTE] This is what I've been thinking all week. If we knew the answer, we could retire on Monday.

You can twist the facts any way you want, but the bottom line is New Orleans was +17 in TOs, IND was only +4!!! How that makes IND the favorite in TOs is a HUGE stretch. IND is dead last in rushing, and New Orleans has a much more balanced offense, and thus harder to defend against. Brees: 69.8%, 8.37 y/a, 40/11 Tds/Int, 110.3 rating. Manning: 68.7%, 7.83 y/a, 38-17 Tds/Int, 100.5rating.

I see Dr Bob agrees that New Orleans should be favored to have fewer TOs. Yes, he also has New Orleans ATS.

geez i have meacham at 33.5 receiving yards o/u -115