SB THREAD PICKS, Take Gmen +3.5-120 5 weight.

SB THREAD PICKS, Take Gmen +3.5-120 5 weight. EVERYONE is on the Gmen here. Sharps. Squares. Donks. Czecks. Wrecks. Hecklers. Whatever. We come back with some PAts ML when the New Yourkers are done POUNDING THE ML, and we can take the wrong side, right price, right coach Pats ML -135. If this tired train soudns familiar......well........we have been here before.......

Why do you buy Gmen +3,5 to create the middle, instead of betting Gmen +146 to create a surewin? Is the middle a better value bet than the surewin in this case?

Because if the game lands 3 then you get a middle.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;50363]Because if the game lands 3 then you get a middle.[/QUOTE] I think he knows that. The question is of value. More with the point spread and negative vig or the money line and positive vig?

Looking at it that way, there are seven half-points between 0 and 3'. [url]https://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/[/url] says the money line should be +167.

+3.5 -120 is WAY better than +145............... WHO CARES about having a 10 cent scalp? You don't go into a shoe store with a coupon for 2 shoes, and walk out with 2 left foot shoes........

I was just looking at SBR half point calculator. It says about 14-15% chance of game landing at -1, -2 or -3. That corresponds to a line around +600, which is about the payback of your middle. but if actual middle probability is way more than 14% I would be glad to hear that. btw, if I could scalp every game for 10 cents, I would be very happy.

Pitt az xliii. This method almost got me to the window twice yesterday...my rogue gmen 3.5 minus 120 and sf ml squashed by sf special teams errors and a qb who is still not the star everyone made him out to be.

[QUOTE=fullvalue1212;50371]Pitt az xliii. This method almost got me to the window twice yesterday...my rogue gmen 3.5 minus 120 and sf ml squashed by sf special teams errors and a qb who is still not the star everyone made him out to be.[/QUOTE] I don't remember anyone making Alex Smith out to be a star. either way, yeah, that looked vv strong for a while.

Please keep betting the Pats down. I want to make the biggest bet of my life.