SB THREAD PICKS, Take Gmen +3.5-120 5 weight.

I agree with the bullish position on Bradshaw (though not because Jacobs "blew" a 4th and 1), but where did you find these lines, Fez?

I have them at a clone, but I don't know who they clone. They're out there, though.

Nothing new here. I believe I have heard Jacobs has been terrible for some time now on 3rd and 4th and 1 or less. Hard to believe with that big body although it's not real flexible so maybe against a stacked defense, it's tough for him to get going seeing he's not super nimble.

Regarding Bradshaw, way too many ways to lose this bet which is why I am pounding the under on his carries and yards. If NE gets lead, especially if it's a significant one, look for Giants to abandon the run game and let Manning loose. 14 1/2 carries is a LOT of carries for a team that is behind. Bradshaw was 1-3 going over 14 1/2 carries and 0-4 going over 60 1/2 yards when the Giants lose this year. If that's not enough, there is a chance that Jacobs could steal some of his carries if he gets hot. Jacobs, as mentioned by another poster, got same amount of carries in Atlanta game and ran for 92 versus Bradshaw's 63. And lastly, Bradshaw has a lingering foot injury and is only "probable" to play. Everyone expects him to play, but the fact that he is even listed would scare me away from any "over" plays. My calculations show that Bradshaw has a 41% chance going over the 14 1/2 carries and 39% chance going over the 60 1/2 yards. Provided you can get -110 on the unders, these are rock solid.

I really think 61 is ridiculously low. He was 50 yds @ the 49ers. Then Jacobs has a miserable game, only gets 5 carries in an OT game in a swamp that should have favored bigger backs. With an extra week of rest, that injury will be fine, and I'm certaion the Genius will be ready to stop the Gmen big playmakers......leaving the running game wide open.........

A minor quibble: the field at Candlestick was like any other game there.

The genius doesn't have the secondary personnel to stop the Giants playmakers. Doubt NYG goes run heavy b/c the Patriots run out a terrible nickel package. I like the Jacobs under, and Bradshaw over receptions. I also like some version of the "no score in first x minutes" to go along with NYG score first

Basic Strategy is to shy away from Overs and seek out Unders when it comes to RBs and WRS. If you like a player to do well it is sometimes better to look for a matchup to use him in than to bet him Over. I think a play of Bradshaw vs BJGE is not a bad way to go because right now Ridley is being treated as if he won't even see the field. Fact is he was their most used and most effective back at end of season. He fumbled in 3Q vs Broncos and Belichick has not played him since but for them to win they may feel the need to at least give a chance to the guy with the most upside of their RBs. Last 3 games of reg season Ridley avged 13 carries for 70 ypg and 5.6 ypc. BJGE avged 6.67 carries for 16 ypg and 2.5 ypc in those same games. The huge plus in Belichicks' eyes is that BJGE has NEVER fumbled the ball away in his entire college and pro career. I don't know if there is any other RB in the NFL that can say that. Don't think Ridley stays in the doghouse for this game. He's too good and was playing too well at seasons end to just forget about him. I predict he gets carries and if he starts out well that he continues to get his share of carries. That comes at the expense of BJGE, especially in the 1H. If the Pats ever get ahead to where they are just trying to shorten the game though, then BJGE becomes the go to guy due to the fumble factor. If Gronk (another guy to look at UNDER) is limited, the Pats will be short on Off options so using Ridley makes even more sense. Bradshaw vs BJGE somehow (I've seen and bet -1/2 -130 on carries) is a good alternative way to get at Ahmad if you feel you have to bet him Over. Finding any specific line is always a crapshoot and dependent on what outs you have. 1H Fireworks is worth looking at for the reason Johnboy pointed out. 2H game situation/score may favor BJGE and hurt Bradshaw.

[QUOTE=Twoniner;50613]The genius doesn't have the secondary personnel to stop the Giants playmakers. Doubt NYG goes run heavy b/c the Patriots run out a terrible nickel package. I like the Jacobs under, and Bradshaw over receptions. I also like some version of the "no score in first x minutes" to go along with NYG score first[/QUOTE] I like Bradshaw total receptions over as well. Manning has been patient, and not forcing the ball if his first few options are not there. He'll hold the ball and then dump it off to Bradshaw. The Giants have a down field passing game and a lot of their routes take time, and line can't hold up that long, forcing Manning to scramble out of the pocket, and again, end up dumping a safe pass off to Bradshaw. Bradshaw should be in there on most downs, unless it's a short yardage run play, and with the amount of pass attempts I think Manning will have, I will take my chances with the over on this one.

PATS UNDER 428 yards -120, 4 weight This is a LUDICROUS LINE..........MAYBE Pats find a way to win with the genius, trickery, good red zone stuff on O and D, and turnovers. But Gronk hurting, NO big plays, a horizontal passing game, NO home run hitter playmakers. Randy Moss isn't gonna be there to scoop up 83 yards in 1 play, and with Tuck, Umencantspellya, and Frence Peirre dude breathing down Brady, trying to break his collarone, VERY hard for me to think the Genius is going to go hurry up left and right.......................if I lose this one in OT after the Gmen kick a fg, I will lose my mind..........