Several Veteran Cappers were correct w/ SF 49ers...how/why???

Several Veteran Cappers were correct w/ SF 49ers...how/why??? Hello there. I did not have SF on any contest but DID waste a Dime on a foolish 7 pt. teaser. I had PHI + 6 ARZ + 4 The way ARZ whipped MINN last week, in every aspect of any football game I was convinced that ARZ would get revenge on lucky SF 49ers( after week one upset at home). I see that the top cappers in the Hilton had SF by a WIDE margin( no pun intended, Rackers, you reek - if you are injured get replaced). These picks cannot have been taken lightly, as you only get 5 selctions per week. What did the top cappers know that I did not know about that game? Trying to become a better NFL handicapper but it is tough to get information; the ones who are immensely successful do not give out info unless there are $$$ attached. Any opinions and info would be greatly appreciated. Iron Man/Subby

[QUOTE=Iron Man/Subby;12268]Hello there. I did not have SF on any contest but DID waste a Dime on a foolish 7 pt. teaser. I had PHI + 6 ARZ + 4 The way ARZ whipped MINN last week, in every aspect of any football game I was convinced that ARZ would get revenge on lucky SF 49ers( after week one upset at home). I see that the top cappers in the Hilton had SF by a WIDE margin( no pun intended, Rackers, you reek - if you are injured get replaced). These picks cannot have been taken lightly, as you only get 5 selctions per week. What did the top cappers know that I did not know about that game? Trying to become a better NFL handicapper but it is tough to get information; the ones who are immensely successful do not give out info unless there are $$$ attached. Any opinions and info would be greatly appreciated. Iron Man/Subby[/QUOTE] For me, value on SF (I made the line Arz by 1), better defense and better running game. Arz, obviously, has the better passing game but that usually only worries me when they are the home team. On the road, that gets neutralized a bit by the better defense and running game. Turnovers obviously had a lot to do with this game. But, that's also probably a result of getting fat last week against Minnesota and coming in a little less focused, while SF dominated Seattle last week but turned the ball over and had terrible play calling down the stretch that cost them the game. They were clearly better focused in this game than Arizona.

Team gives up seven turnovers and only loses by 15...I think the sharps may have been on the wrong side. That said, going into the game, the very fact that ARZ showed so well on national TV the week before, usually is a good indicator that a play against them will have value. At the very least, if you liked ARZ, playing early in the week was the only time to bet. Alternately, if you liked SF, betting just before kickoff was the only way to go. Because of their very "public" showing the week before, it was almost a certainty that the line would be driven up most of the day Monday, which it was. I "won" the game before it started by betting both sides. I could have been trapped into a position, or forced to take a loss, had the line not moved in my favor. But given the same set of circumstances next time, I'll bet the line moves the same way again.

Kurt Waner is TERRIBLE in bad weather/cold damp weather There is a reason the man did well playing in Domes and in the Desert.

[QUOTE=Iron Man/Subby;12268] foolish 7 pt. teaser. PHI + 6 ARZ + 4 [/QUOTE] Handicapping is often situational. Sometimes teams will outperform one week in a good situation and then have a letdown. Arizona has an easy schedule to win the division. You want to take home divisional dogs in good spots. I hope you understand why teasing through zero is bad. For example, what would you pay for two points to take PHI from -1 to +1? In your case, PHI was barely a 52% favorite, and you needed each teaser leg to hit 75%+. Suppose you could have shopped PHI on the moneyline at around -110. That means you needed them to lose by 1-6 around 23%+ to make the teaser acceptable. Typically 6-point favorites are around -260 on the moneyline. That means the 1-6 hit only 22% or so. So it is hard to make the argument for the teaser here. Similar considerations apply to the Arizona leg. Do you follow this arithmetic? Here is another way to think about this. You could have just parlayed both teams or bet them both straight. The parlay would lose the same as the teaser and win more than twice as much. Do you really think the extra teaser points compensate for winning half as much as the parlay?! Two straight bets would lose slightly more, but will frequently lose only a little vig.

I'd love to see more of our top guys jump in here. I am not a handicapping expert, but I know that when I have the perception that one side is overwhelmingly superior, I should not bet it. Or taking it a step further, bet the other way. Just adopting that mindset -- translation: I quit betting my uninformed opinions -- improved my results. I'm sure it has to do with giving too much weight to short-term (or the latest) results at the expense of more important fundamentals, situations, and match-ups. Maybe that's the whole answer.

Several Veteran Cappers were incorrect w/ Cincy or Denver...How/Why?? also a good topic

flighty Cardinals Warner outdoors after Thanksgiving is absurdly bad the past few years. Just some gruesome games. Arizona has their division all but wrapped up and had little to gain in this one. Also big letdown after Vikings win. I don't think NFL revenge matters all that much. Despite last year's playoff run I don't think this flighty bunch is a tough minded team during the regular season. Was mostly a fade of the Cardinals for me. That being said, I went all of 2-2 this past weekend and I had the Bucs, Bengals, Chargers, and Niners. So I was both a brilliant genius and a complete idiot.

I was a complete idiot. Last night's game was the only game I got right. Sunday was a bloodbath. The weather was a nonfactor. No wind, with temps in the low 50s. Having no wind at the Stick is unusual. Tonight it will rain. Would have been a different game, but from a scoreboard perspective the result would have been the same. All I know is all my anti-Warner player props look a little brighter this morning (thanks, Fez).

" teasing through the zero is bad"..... tell bw that, he had Arizona teased every which way....... everyone is great a QB the day after, bottom line is that if Arizona hangs onto the ball, they most likely cover easily. San Fran was never ever in any way, shape, or form the right side in this game.