Several Veteran Cappers were correct w/ SF 49ers...how/why???

[QUOTE=11 > 10;12296]" teasing through the zero is bad"..... tell bw that, he had Arizona teased every which way....... everyone is great a QB the day after, bottom line is that if Arizona hangs onto the ball, they most likely cover easily. San Fran was never ever in any way, shape, or form the right side in this game.[/QUOTE] avg ypp was about even throughout the game. az was playing from behind the majority of the game because of their turnovers which shouldve padded their ypp stats much higher than they registered. there is no valid case for arizona being the right side of this contest based on that game. turnovers being even, +4 wouldve likely been the right side more often than not.

Turnovers are a big factor in a game's outcome 99% of the time (or whatever actual % bears it out). I had AZ as my non-PS pick in my weekly SMC football contest. Based on how well they played vs Minny last week, and how mediocre the 49ers had been lately, I thought they were going to win the game last night--but the unpredictability, week in and week out, in the NFL dictated otherwise. WTS, SF was CLEARLY the right side. The Cardinal laid an unexpected egg last night, that's all. :) Nice call to the main man (A.C.) last night with the right [I]call[/I] by the Fezman.

Arizona came off a huge win. They did not need to win (only need to win one with det and stl on tap). SF came off an unlucky loss vs a tough home team, Seattle. My power ratings had the game a pick. SF has the best ATS record in the NFL (all that counts to me).

Oh yes, 100% of my square friends were on Arizona!

Old School nailed it on the head. However, I don't believe in always following power ratings verbatim as they ignore situational capping. (not to say that he did so in this game)

"Arizona came off a huge win. They did not need to win (only need to win one with det and stl on tap)." Translation: they laid it all out on the table vs the Vikings, while the Niners came off a toughy in Seattle; and looking for another team to take it out on on a national stage. It makes sense to me... And then the Vikings come back strong at home vs Cincy (that part I had right for my contest's pick! However, it all boiled down to AZ on MNF: I hit them and I'm in the top 10, with at least $200 cash in my pocket. That's 2 free spins on Ole Faithful (my $100 R, W & B 7s machine)! :) ) The key is to find the peaks and valleys along with soft numbers at low vig to be a true pro at sports betting. Easier said than done. GL this week, fellas.

Thanks to everyone who contributed to this Thread!!! This Thread alone was worth the cost paid up front when this Forum was started. Great stuff for me to get busy improving. Especially the Teaser vs. Parlay angle. Iron Man/Subby

[QUOTE=Kruger;12338]Old School nailed it on the head. However, I don't believe in always following power ratings verbatim as they ignore situational capping. (not to say that he did so in this game)[/QUOTE] I agree with you that blindly following power ratings is incorrect (but not this year!). However, this was a case where both the value (judged by my power ratings) and the situation favored SF.

I second that. Enjoyed reading this thread too.

[I]Everyone[/I] should appreciate old school's contributions to this site. Just because a few of us rib him every now and then doesn't mean we disrespect him in a any way, shape or form. Good luck with your picks this holiday season, and may you start out the New Year with your winning streak intact. LTK