SF - NO great game. HORRENDOUS coaching

SF - NO great game. HORRENDOUS coaching Great game BUT HORRENDOUSLY coached. I dont expect the QB to think mid run to slide, but if you are the coach and you call a QB run at that point you must tell him if he makes the 1st down to slide. By scoring a TD there, their chance of winning was about 60% (see Pinny live lines). If he slides inside the 10, their chances are at least 97% if not 99%. But it gets worse for the Saints. Up 3 with 40 seconds left and the ball at the SF 30, you dont even rush any linemen. You tackle every receiver, tight end, and running back immediately. You give up 5 yards, 5-10 seconds go way and you repeat. The first time 10-15 seconds probably goes away as the QB figures out what the hell is going on. 30 seconds later, SF is sitting at midfield, throwing one hail mary trying to win. If you don't want to do that, surely with 14 seconds left and the ball at your 10 or 15, you tackle all of the above. Then there's 6-7 seconds left at the 5 and they must kick the FG. If they run a second play you tackle everyone again. Use this strategy and you can not lose in regulation there. IDIOTS This would only work for one year because the NFL would change the rules to something like 15 yards or 3 extra plays or something in the final minute for intentional holding, but its amazing no one ever does it.

Because it would almost certainly fit into the "palpably unfair act" rule in which the officials can award an automatic touchdown, player ejection(s) or even forfeit for making a travesty of the game. At the [B]very least[/B], it would be defensive holding and unsportsmanlike conduct, but I'm sure would be covered by the palpably unfair and travesty of the game rules. If not, then they ought to throw out the rules.

It would work well at end of half with opponent at your 10 yard line with 10 seconds left. If you yanked down all potential receivers you would give up the 5 yards for penaility and team would kick FG anyway....so mission accomplished. But in the SF game, with no rushing lineman, what's to prevent Smith from taking off and running for 20-30 yards? Also, you are talking personal foul penalties....as it would be tough to manhandle receivers without drawing one of those. That's 15 yards a pop, and it would only take 3 of those to get SF into FG range. But I agree, amazing that the slide play is not in any teams playbook. A coach should explain at summer practice that there will be a time during season when we want to make a first down but not score. You can demonstrate by showing Westbrook film from a few years ago when he went down at gola line. It would be easy to practice. Also, teams should practice a play that lets the other team score a touchdown. That comes up a lot too, and you could practice pursuing but not tackling so as not to make it too obvious. I would guess that these plays must be in Bellichicks playbook, and maybe Sean Peytons....I know he must have been relieved when Smith scored once he made first down. Did they even go after him? Maybe Peyton was using play.

Unfortunately it seems we gamblers are the only ones who care or get it. If he had not scored the TD and missed the FG and lost he would have been the laughingstock of the league. They play SAFE not percentages. Period!! Bellicheck, Payton and Fisher seem to be the only ones who get it and the worst if almost all owners dont get it or care.

Well put BK.

First off all, the Westbrook example IIRC was when Philadelphia led the game! If he scored a touchdown, Dallas (again IIRC) could have gotten the ball back, scored and recovered an onside kick with a chance to win. They had no time outs left so all Philadelphia did was take a knee and they won. That is unequivocally “playing the percentages.” There was no potential downside other than Joe Pisarcik II. I have seen teams not risk an interception or sack and instead play for a game-winning field goal. But unlike the Westbrook example, they were always either tied or trailed. One could argue that certainly is “playing the percentages.” I have never seen a team TRAILING that would give up a GUARANTEED go-ahead touchdown in return for a mere chance at kicking a game-winning field goal just to leave no time on the clock. If, while trailing in the game, trading seven points in hand in return for possibly three in the bush qualifies as “playing the percentages,” then I need to buy a new calculator. If anyone can come up with one example of a team trailing, yet still taking a knee in lieu of scoring a sure go-ahead touchdown; I’m all ears. Never saw it and doubt if I will.

I have never seen a team that is behind giving up a guaranteed TD for the chance of kicking FG either. That's the whole point of this thread.....there are times when a team SHOULD be doing this, yet they never do. See the above example....If Smith takes a knee they have a 97% chance of winning. If he scores a TD they have a 60% chance of winning. Most coaches have no concept of probabilities/logic in figuring out how best to win a game. In the SF game, to give their team the best chance at winning, the Smith should have been told that if you make a 1st down DO NOT score a TD...instead do a "Westbrook" right before the goal line. You can't possibly argue that Smith scoring the TD was a better move than stopping at the 1. It's a slam dunk.

I have seen a team give up a TD so that they could get the ball back. Fisher against the Texans down by 3 with a minute left. 1st and goal at the 5 and the first play the Texans run it right in and the idiots are cheering like they accomplished something. Linebackers literally parted like the Red Sea and the RB still spikes it. Difference is that they were ahead so they CLEARLY should have taken a knee. In this instance the team was behind. Much like if you were up 2 and on defense in a similar situation the percentages may say to let them score but there is NO way the team would do anything but try to hold them out of the end zone and make them convert the kick. Regardless of percentages. AGAIN, 90% of the people dont get percentages and odds and what the +EV thing to do is. All they know is you dont give up when you are winning and you dont not try to take the lead when you are losing.

I don’t buy those percentages. I know some will claim, “It’s just like an extra point,” but teams don’t go all out to block extra points like they would a game winning field goal. While I never have been a big fan of freezing the kicker, I do agree with the premise even at this level, the snapper, kicker, and holder can and will be affected by the pressure of a game-winning field goal regardless if it’s extra point distance. Plus the pressure of a game-winner is one thing. With the season on the line--two wins from going to the Super Bowl--is yet another. Somewhere out there, there is certainly a stat on a team trailing—they must be trailing—kicking a “chip shot” game winning field goal with time expiring. No way in heck it’s 97 percent. Even extra points with the season on the line are not a sure things Jessica Simpson tells me. You MAY be able to convince me it would be a good strategy to settle for the chance to win or go home with a FG, but to imply it's a no-brainer and 97-60 percentage play, no way. As good as the Saints are, they sure as hell don't score a TD on 60 percent of their possessions, much less having to run a two-minute offense. So I don't know where the 97 or 60 is coming from. They scored a three TD on their first nine possessions before that without being forced to run a hurry-up. How do we get a 60 percent chance of scoring one in a forced hurry up?

The 60% chance of SF winning was from Pinnacle in-game betting, according to Sean1 above. So that means odds of New Orelans scoring and winning game was 40%. That sounds about right to me, as Brees had over 2 minutes on clock, the 2 minute warning, 1 time-out, a tiring SF defense, and 4 downs if needed. That's an eternity for Brees.....enough for a dozen plays or so. I would have taken New Orleans in that situation in a heartbeat. I hear you regarding pressure of FG, but even if you factored in pressure, and other team trying desperately to block kick, you can't possible argue that the percentage would drop down any lower than 90% for what would amount to an extra-point, which are made 98.5% of the time. So now we are looking at 90% vs 60%, still a no-brainer if you are playing the percentages.