Shooter's Week #1 College Football

Shooter's Week #1 College Football Thurs 9/3 I had writeups posted, but got logged out and can't remember what I wrote. I'll try to do the best I can. 127 S Carolina (+5') LY the Pack were +14 on the road and now are laying 5 to 5'. I don't think NC State's program has improved THAT much and S Carolina hasn't regressed that much. NC State basically got hot at the right time last season. People are rushing to the window to back the Pack here b/c of that and b/c Russell Wilson had a 17:1 TD:INT ratio last year. The Gamecocks were mediocre LY, but keep in mind their starting QB Garcia was suspended and missed all of summer practice and was way behind. SC also turned the ball over 39 times last year. I don't see that happening again. I respect Tom O'Brien a great deal, but the Gamecocks are the better team and have more talent on both sides of the ball. 127/128 S Carolina/NC State UN 47 129/130 Utah St/Utah UN 52' New coach at Utah St is Gary Andersen, who was the assist HC and OC at Utah the L5Y. Utes strength this year is the defense. I expect that defense to be ready for Utah St's offense as well. Utah St's new OC is Dave Baldwin, who was the OC at New Mexico when Whittingham was the DC at Utah. Both teams familiar with each other's schemes. 133 Troy (-6') (-115) As Fezz said, -6'(-120) or (-7) is a no play. There is an interesting story in this game. Troy QB Levi Brown was at Richmond when Dave Clawson, the new BG coach, was the HC. He never got a lot of PT and transferred. https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/article/20090901/SPORTS0404/909010343/TROY-FOOTBALL--Brown-says-facing-former-coach--just-another-game- 135 North Texas (+21) See Fezz's thread in the archives regarding the opening lines being put out. I caught this at 21, but would play Ball St or nothing right now. Won't count this in the record. 135/136 N Texas/Ball St UN 59' Still like it at 58. Ball St's offense will struggle with the new RS Fr QB Page. He's had a mediocre camp and I expect BSU to run a lot in the early going to ease him into things. BSU's strength is their front four who will pressure the young, yet talented Riley Dodge. Will post the weekend slate tonight or tomorrow morning. GL

As of now, I don't like the Friday game as it looks priced right. Sat 9/4: 145 Navy (+22) The Buckeyes are unveiling a new variation of Nevada's "Pistol" offense this season. Jim Tressel and several other coaches went out to Reno to get the tutorial on the offense from its inventor Chris Ault. I'm not sure Ohio State will want to show too much the week before USC comes into town. OSU will look to establish the run early and often. Navy will go balls out the entire game like academies always do. Navy is 14-4 ATS as a Road Dog their L18. They are always live for a backdoor. 145/146 Navy/Ohio State UNDER 47' This will be the best defense that Navy has faced in a long time. I don't think Navy's option is going to do too much against this talent. They may be good enough to hit one or two plays early, but then nothing more. 147 Akron (+27') Akron has a 3-year starter at QB. They have a good offense and backdoored Wisconsin and came close to beating Cincy last year. Penn State has covered big numbers at home of late, but I know that JoePa doesn't historically run it up. 150 Michigan (-12) Ordinarily I would like Western Mich in this situation behind a good coach and a likely future NFL QB. However, this has been "pile on Michigan" week. Even if a decent amount of these players don't like Rich Rod, they still have pride. They are projected to be an improved team and now the media is dumping on them for the extra practices and Rich Rod being sued for a condo deal gone bad in Virginia. Plus, the Wolverines ae playing 3 QB's in this game. Looks like the perfect spot to take the dog here. No way.

I'm also on South Carolina. I like that Spurrier is also 18-1 SU in season openers and I read something somewhere that interested me that NC St last year was the only bowl team that was not favored in any game last season.

151/152 U Conn/Ohio OVER 46' U Conn is moving to a no-huddle offense this year with ND transfer QB Zach Fraser. He got them their comeback win at Louisville. With Donald Brown now in Indy with the Colts, I expect UConn to open it up offensively. Ohio U has two QB's with starting experience (Theo Scott and Boo Jackson). All of the important skill position players are back. Both teams have a rep for low-scoring affairs off last year's results. This will be a common refrain in my plays. LAST YEAR WAS LAST YEAR! UConn's offensive #'s were skewed b/c they ran the ball a ton with Donald Brown and were down to #3 QB Cody Endres due to Tyler Lorenzen's ineffectiveness and the injury to Frazer midseason. 153/154 Nevada/Notre Dame UNDER 62 Notre Dame's offense will be good, but I expect more balance with all of their RB's back and 4 OL starters back. I am a big fan of Chris Ault and the "Pistol", but their talent level can make it work against WAC teams but not bigger programs. They got held to 19 against Texas Tech and 17 at Missouri. ND is much better on defense than those two programs. Jon Tenuta made a huge difference on defense for the Irish last year and will make more of a difference calling the signals this year. 155 Georgia (+6) Played this a couple days ago at +6. Still would play at 5.5. Injuries have nothing to do with this on the OSU side. This is about Okla St having high expectations. I don't think they are ready for these high expectations. Mark Richt is historically a good underdog coach (7-2 ATS). Joe Cox is not as talented as Stafford, but he's an accurate passer and the team likes him a great deal. Georgia is much better up front on both sides of the ball here. I refuse to believe that the 4th-best team in the Big 12 is six points better than the #3 team in the SEC. 157 Kentucky (-14) (-120) I got this at -14 last week, but will grade it at -120. Miami-O has new schemes on both sides of the ball to learn. Their DC hasn't coached in six years and their OC has been out for a couple years as well. Mike Haygood is the new HC and was the OC at Notre Dame last year. This is the same Mike Haygood who got his playcalling duties stripped from him by Charlie Weis. UK will have more fans for this game in Cincy than Miami will. More to come. GL

Thanks Turk. I had that nugget about NC State in my initial writeup before I got logged out. How is NC State going to handle the higher expectations? Spurrier may not get the cream of the crop that he got in Gator Country, but he still gets Top 20-30 recruits nationally at all the positions.

163/164 Rice/UAB UNDER 63 Rice lost everybody on offense including two WR's with over 1300 yds and double-digit TDs (Casey and Dillard). They also lost their QB (Clement) who had 4400 yards and a 44:7 TD:INT ratio. They also lose their top 3 rushers. This isn't USC, this is freaking Rice. You can't lose players like that at their particular level and expect to come close to putting up those #'s. UAB ended last year with their best two defensive efforts (holding ECU to 17 and shutting out UCF on the road). This will be UAB's best defense in years. Not saying much, but UAB may the most improved team in the conference. All their offensive starters are back, but they are not a real explosive offense anyway. UAB is the right side, but all value has been lost on the side. 166 Wake Forest (-1) (-120) One of my fav plays to play. A small fav against a public underdog. Everyone knows that Baylor will likely be improved. The problem is that everyone knows Baylor will be improved. Everyone also knows that Wake under Grobe is money-earning as a dog and money-burning as a fav. They did cover three times as a home fav last year. Wake is not getting any respect. You have a four-year starter at QB who completes 2/3 of his passes and is a great leader (Riley Skinner). Baylor is on the rise, but still a work in progress. 168 Syracuse (+7) Usually I take one ugly dog that looks terrible on paper each week and Syracuse is that ugly dog this week. I really like the hire of Doug Marrone, a Cuse alum and OC with the Saints last year. Marrone has instilled discipline and accountability in this team. They already have 40000 tickets sold for this as of Wednesday. Minnesota opens their new stadium next week at home and this has been the big doings up in Minneapolis. Potential lookahead. You also have to look at the fact that you have a stating QB in Greg Paulus, who hasn't played football in 4 years, yet the line was at -6' for most of the week against a team that did make a bowl game last year? Marrone also brought in Rob Spence, who was a really good OC at Toledo and Clemson. Tim Brewster has made inroads in recruiting at Minnesota, but this line looks awful fishy to me.

169 Army (+6) I know I'm going up against one of the most respected cappers out there. I won't mention who it is so as not to give a service play away. However, I gotta go with West Point here. Army made a great hire in bringing in the brilliant Rich Ellerson from Cal Poly. Army is Ellerson's dream job. His father and two brothers are West Point grads. He will keep the triple option. However, if you watched Cal Poly's game at Wisconsin LY (a game they should have won and where they outplayed the Badgers, but 3 missed PATs killed them). They are also running the "Double Eagle Flex" defense which Ellerson helped implement for Dick Tomey out in Arizona and led to the "Desert Swarm" era. E Michigan is a slightly more experienced team and brings in Ron English as its head coach. English was the DC at Michigan in 06' and at Louisville in 07' and 08'. English has commented on how they don't have any speed on both sides of the ball. The line went up b/c of a good handicapper on the other side and coinciding with the announcement that Frosh Trent Steelman will start at QB for Army. However, they will use multiple QB's here. I like Ellerson here in this coaching matchup. 169/170 Army/E Michigan OVER 47 E. Mich is slow on defense and Army will be able to catch them off guard a few times. Army is also learning this new scheme and it will have some growing pains and missed assignments. These two clubs only scored 30 combined LY and this total is posted 17 points higher. Almost makes the Under easy doesn't it? :rolleyes: 175 Stanford (-16') Stanford is starting a frosh QB Andrew Luck in his first game on the road. You usually wouldn't take a team in this situation. However, Wazzu is way, way down. I know last year is last year and they may be slightly better (can't get much worse). The Cougs gave up 248 on the ground LY and Stanford has their entire OL back and a healthy Toby Gerhart. 175/176 Stanford/Wazzu UNDER 56 178 Auburn (-12') La Tech is a sleeper in the WAC and I like the job Derek Dooley is doing. However, La Tech is one of the trendy dog picks of the week. Auburn has low expectations this year because of the hiring of Gene Chizik, who was a stellar 5-21 at Iowa State. All summer long, the players and coaches have had to hear about the public skepticism of this hire. Auburn was anemic in the spread offense and fired Tony Franklin as OC in midseason. Auburn brings in offensive guru Gus Malzahn in from Tulsa and previously Arkansas. When Malzahn came to Tulsa, they were avg a respectable 28 ppg. The first season he was there, they went up to 41 ppg and LY to 47 ppg. He is one of the innovators of the "Wildcat". While Auburn struggled with the spread last year, they still at least got familiar with the terminology. Malzahn will get production out of them. Kodi Burns is a good runner at QB. I think there is some good value here with the Tigers. 180 Texas A & M (-14) I know I'm not getting the best of the number, but I still like this play a lot. A & M is coming off a 4-8 year where they started their season losing at home Arkansas State, as a -19 fav, in the opener. The Aggie fans are already down on Sherman. However, they get New Mexico coming in with a new HC and two new coordinators. The Lobo defense takes a HUGE step back with the dismissal of Rocky Long as HC. A & M is at the bottom of the Big 12, but will still be improved. They were in the midst of phasing out Stephen McGee at QB, which was highly unpopular amongst the seniors on the team. Sherman, who I'm not a fan of, does at least has more of his stamp on the team. This is more of a play against New Mexico though. Will post the rest tomorrow. GL

I'm also on #127 SC, #133 Troy -6 1/2, #145 Navy +21 1/2, #155 Georgia +5 1/2, #163 Rice under 63 1/2, #169 Army +5, and #180 A@M -14. Needless to say, I hope you KILL this week!

Thurs 9/3: 2 additions 130 Utah (-20') I know Whittingham won't want to run it up on the Utes, but he may not be able to help it. Gotten to a good pt where Utah has good value. 132 Boise State (-3) If this is a sucker bet, then I'm a sucker. I can't believe people are cutting in line to bet Oregon STILL. At 6, fine. At 5', fine. At 5, OK. People are still betting them at 3'. Oregon has a new coach and didn't hire an OC until AFTER spring practice. Big drop off from experienced Bellotti to Kelly. I gotta go with the Blue Meanies at this point. Say hello to the Blue Guys. GL

183/184 Idaho/N Mex St UNDER 54' New Mex St totally changes their offense with the dismissal of Mumme. New OC is Timm Rosenbach, former Wazzu QB. DeWayne Walker finally gets a shot at being a HC. I always thought highly of his defensive acumen. Idaho is not exactly an offensive juggernaut, so I see a low scoring game here. 184 New Mexico State (-2') Really against the grain here. This team will be terrible this year, but this might be one of their only two chances to win a game (also next week vs. Prairie View, the rest will be woodsheds). Idaho was a +12' LY AT HOME to the Aggies and won it outright, 20-14. Now they are only getting +2'? Has Idaho really improved that much? Has New Mexico St regressed that much? They were only 3-9 LY. 188 California (-17, -19' and -21) Won't play this over 21. More on 17 and 19'. Cal was down HUGE at Maryland LY and came back and almost won the game when they finally woke up. Terps lost over 30 senior lettermen and have 9 ret starters back. 189 San Jose State (+35) I know Pete Carroll has run it up on people in the past, but I don't think he will do it to his buddy Dick Tomey. Tomey asked for this game in order to recruit some second-level Southland talent, which can help themm in the WAC. Carroll has a talented, but true freshman QB under center. Road tilt at Ohio St on deck. May not want to show much here. 189/190 San Jose St/USC UNDER 48' USC only has 3 defensive starters back, but 7 of the 8 new starters were top 15 recruits in their respective classes including Everson Griffen, #1 defensive player overall in his class and MLB Chris Galippo, #2 MLB. USC reloads. I see a 31-7 final here. 191 Central Michigan (+14) CMU has went and played on the road at Michigan, Penn St, Michigan St, Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Clemson and Georgia over the past few years. I don't see them being intimidated playing at Zona. I think this line is skewed b/c CMU didn't put any emphasis on non-conf games in 07'. But LY they had Purdue beat and got unlucky and beat Indiana on the road. Arizona breaks in a new QB to their spread offense. Tuitama a big loss for them. 191/192 C Michigan/Arizona UNDER 55 Zona was the 3rd best defense in the PAC behind USC and Cal. Defensively they should be pretty good, but on offense, they have a little ways to go. Meanwhile, CMU returns LeFevour and should have a good offense. However, they struggle against teams the power conferences. 07': 7 pts at Kansas 07': 22 pts at Purdue 07': 14 pts at Clemson 08': 17 pts at Georgia You get my drift. They'll score enough to stay within the number, but I don't see a shootout here. 193/194 San Diego State/UCLA UNDER 52 Caught this yest before the move. Still like it, albeit less, at50. Two words for this one: Rocky Long. He's the new SD St DC. He comes up with great stuff. UCLA's offense is starting a Frosh QB in his first start and does not have a good run game. 196 Washington (+9') 1st Half 196 Washington (+17') Game I don't trust Les Miles laying this number on the road. Yes, Wash was 0-12, but Locker was hurt half the season and they get him back. There is some excitement around the program with the addition of new coach Steve Sarkisian. Long trip for the Bayou Bengals with their SEC home opener on deck. LSU already has a QB controversy. Jordan Jefferson is looking over his shoulder at Russell Shepard, the #1 QB in HS last year. 197 FAU (+23) This is a strange line as well. Every time FAU has played a Big 12 opp the last couple of years, they have been absolutely buried. They lost by 42 at Texas LY. Lost by 36 at Okie State in 07'. Lost by 45 at K-State in 06'. Now they only get 23 on the road against the Big 12 North favorite? 199 Middle Tenn St (+19) Clemson now starts anew with Dabo Swinney as their HC. They'll regret giving him the job when Fulmer became available. Clemson has a short prep week on deck for a big Thurs night game at Clemson. Middle Tenn brings everyone back but their QB and Dwight Dasher, a runner and passer, played quite a bit and will give them a different dimension. GL