Shooter's Week #2 CFB

Shooter's Week #2 CFB Early ones I took. If I hedge or scale back on something, I'll post. Hopefully these lines can be gotten, but I wanted to give some insight as well on each one. 317 Iowa (-7) (-102) ISU has covered the L5 mtgs. Iowa St has won 7 of L11. Iowa was outplayed by No Iowa, who is a powerhouse in FCS (D-1AA). People are now down on Iowa. This is a rivalry game, but Iowa St is still the worst team in the B12 North. Waiting to see what materializes on Duke-Army as there is a massive overreaction to Duke's loss vs. Richmond. 332 Tulane (+18) I got it at +18'. It's 18 or 17.5 most places. BYU is off their biggest win in years and have a big one with Fla St coming to Provo next week. Tulane wasn't great, but not horrible either. Final was misleading as Tulsa had a punt ret TD and a short field inside the 10 after an INT. 334 Oregon (-10) (-105) I expect the Ducks to be fired up off that bad performance at Boise. I watched a good part of Purdue's game and their defense is terrible against the pass. Granted, Toledo had to throw b/c they were down early, but still giving up 425 to Aaron Opelt and Toledo is not good. Oregon should be able to score at will. 336 Wyoming (+33') Texas has that big payback game vs. Texas Tech next week that cost them a chance at the national title. Wyoming is improved this year. The players were not trying as hard for lame duck Joe Glenn. New HC Dave Christensen (Mizzou OC LY) has seemingly inspired new energy. They only beat Weber St by 7, but Weber is projected to go to the I-AA playoffs this yr. 337 La Tech (+7') (-105) La Tech got beat pretty good at Auburn and Navy came oh so close to beating Ohio State in the Horseshoe. Navy historically a bad home chalk and they have a revenger at Pitt next week. 341 Idaho (+21) (-111) Not saying Washington isn't motivated to win a game here, but they did get up big for LSU and then have USC next week. Idaho will be motivated for this one big time. Also a lot of pressure on Washington, b/c this is the game they pointed to as their losing streak breaker. They may come out tight early and let Idaho hang around. 348 Virginia (+12) (-105) UVA lost to I-AA Bill & Mary by DD (26-14), but they also had SEVEN turnovers. You won't beat anyone turning it over like that. This is TCU's opener and they were one of 2 or 3 teams that didn't play this past weekend. A team with a game under its belt against a team in its first game is a decent bet anyway. Particularly a team off a bad loss. 357 Western Mich (+1') (-109) If a Big 10 school is laying this low a # to a MAC school at home, then you can tell who the oddsmakers like. Indiana still can't run the ball at all. They don't have their best running threat (Kellen Lewis, QB kicked off tm and now at Valdosta St) anymore. W Mich lost to IU in 06' and 07'. Their seniors, specifically Tim Hiller, will REALLY want this game. Get some of the sting out of the Mich loss. Michigan not a winnable game for WM, but IU is very winnable. C Mich also won at IU LY is a somewhat similar spot. 359 Bowling Green (+17) (-105) Mizzou off a big win over Illinois and now they get a little overvalued. Dave Clawson may have failed at Tennessee as an OC, but he killed it at Richmond as a HC. Very impressive win over a good Troy team. 365 Houston (+16) (-109) Still like this at anything over 14. Houston is a good team and lost 56-37 in Stillwater LY. Houston can put up points and are a veteran team. OSU probably thinks they are big shit now after the Georgia win. Now they play a team they beat and covered against LY. Houston's the play. 373 USC (-5) Early $$ on the Bucks, so maybe wait a little while. Matt Barkley is a frosh making his first start, but not your avg frosh. He was the consensus #1 or #2 QB out of HS LY. He's a future NFL 1st-rder without a doubt. OSU has some big holes in that defense. Navy was 8 for 11 on 3rd down against them. 376 San Jose State (+14) (-105) San Jose got crushed on Sat at USC and really just got wore out and were highly overmatched. They aren't as overmatched here. I will almost always bet Dick Tomey taking points, and will do so again here. 379 Arkansas State (+24) (-115) OK, Arky St is getting the same amount of points that FAU got yesterday. FAU is ranked ahead of Arky St in the Sun Belt in every preseason mag. Nebraska beat FAU 49-3 yesterday. Why wouldn't you take Nebraska again here? Well, Arky St has a dual-threat and mobile QB Corey Leonard. FAU has a potential NFL QB in Rusty Smith, but he can't run at all. Nebraska D is still susceptible to running QB's and spread teams. Those are the early looks. I'll see if anything else tickles my fancy when the totals get put up. GL

Thank you Shooter. Nicely done and out early!

I have # 334 Oregon and #373 USC. Good luck!

Add: 356 Washington State (+2) (-105) I didn't get the 3 here, but I think the Cougs win outright here. They got beat pretty good by Stanford, but they looked improved. I know they can't get any worse. LY when Hawaii NEEDED the win to get bowl eligible and Wazzu finally got a win over Wash in the Apple Cup, Hawaii couldn't really get away from them until late. The Cougs got right back in the game vs. Stanford with a great drive to start the second half but a KO Ret TD broke their backs. 377 Oregon State (-7) (-101) The Rodgers brothers are back healthy. OSU was shutting out Portland St and had their 3rd string in b/c Riley wasn't wanting to rub it in on Glanville. OSU also only played their starting QB Canfield for half the game and then went to RS Fr Ryan Katz. Lyle Moevao is out til the end of the month while recovering from rotator cuff surgery. Canfield knows the job is his for now. I don't think the Rebels have enough. GL

Thanks Shooter, I have you going 39-24 in week 1. Appreciate the write-ups and plays.

Like the Wash St. Had Stanford last week and everytime I looked up the game Wash St was driving. They had almost 400 yards in offense and I think Stanford's D is better than what Hawaii's will be on the road.

not sure on Wyoming for following reason - Texas mentality. Last year they feel they got screwed because Okie ran up scores. Also they are #2 and USC is #3 and playing OSU this week - if USC routs em and Texas struggles or is unimpressive, they could fall to #3 and that sets up Flor/USC assuming they both win out, which they could do. I just think Texas will not lay off this weekend and if Wyoming can't stabilize the game at all, they will cover this. That being said, won't lay it with Texas. thanks for the informative write ups shooter.

Add: 310 Penn State (-28) (-115) PSU, luckily for me and other Akron backers, couldn't muster any points in the 2nd half and failed to cover. They had a ton of chances though. They fumbled at midfield, had a 4th & 1 on the Akron 35 and punted and missed a 49-yd FG. They were in Akron territory 5 times in the 2nd and had zero points. I said LW with my Cuse +7 that I thought they would be slightly improved this year and they are. They should've won the game, but they were outstatted big time. Minny held them to under 100 yds rushing and outyarded them by 103. Cuse was also only 1/12 on 3rd D and gave up 3 sacks. Lot to ask for from Paulus, who by and large played fairly well, in a road start in Happy Valley. JoePa is probably not happy with that lax effort in the 2nd half and going through the motions. I think PSU goes for the throat early and often here. 313 Central Michigan (+14')(-105) Lefevour had his worst career outing at Ariz. Nevertheless, their defense held Zona to 19 pts. Mich St still trying to determine their starting QB. Cousins and Nichol both played well against lowly Montana St, but this is a bad spot for the Spartans. Big game in South Bend next week. CMU is no longer "phoning it in" against top flight competition. No lookahead for CMU with only Alcorn St coming in next week. 315/316 E Michigan/N'Western UNDER 52' E Mich was big-time confused last week vs. Army and gave up 6 sacks and were dominated by the Army D-Line. EMU also gave up over 6 ypc to Army on the ground. They got a garbage score to make it closer. NW got out to a big lead LW and coasted. NW is a running team. They ran the ball 54 of 76 plays against Towson. I see no reason why they change here. 320 Auburn (-14) (-105) Was looking to take the Over here as well, but MSU got a lot of their points off really short fields and their offense was hit and miss. Auburn continues to be undervalued here. As I was saying LW, Gus Malzahn makes a big difference on offense for this team. They piled up 556 yds on a decent La Tech defense and also shut them down and ran away and hid in the 3rd and 4th qtrs. LY, Auburn was so inept on offense, yet outgained Miss St by 200 yds and only won 3-2. It won't be this close this time. 326 Stanford (+3') Just went down to three as a lot of us were waiting for the hook. Stanford is arriving in Winston-Salem a day and a half early to get used to the time change. The last time in this situation in 05', Stanford won outright at Navy. Luck played decent in his first road start and Stanford's running game and OL can run on the Deacons. 317 South Carolina (+7') (-115) Spurrier is 9-3-1 ATS as a Road Doggie. So Car should have won this game last year and had 3 drives in UGA territory and came away with nothing. The athletes on both teams are relatively equal here as well. The Cocks have covered 3 of the L4 in Athens. 317/318 S. Carolina/Georgia OVER 37' (-105) These two teams scored 7 and 10 respectively last week and both games went under their respective totals by 4 TDs (5 in SC's case). The L12 mtgs have went under. I go contrarian here though. So Car was a little conservative LW and will be less so here knowing they need a statement road win in the SEC. With 2 good defenses as well, I can see a score or two off of defense as well. More to come.

Add: 333/334 Purdue/Oregon UNDER 59 (-115) By watching last week's Purdue game vs. Toledo, you can see that new HC Danny Hope wants to run the ball a lot more. Oregon's defense didn't play too bad at Boise. They got put in a lot of bad spots by the offense. Toledo was a complete sieve for Purdue, Oregon won't be. 339/340 Notre Dame/Michigan UNDER 49 Both defenses played really well against good offenses. This is a huge game for both teams. I expect them to be tight early. 339 Notre Dame (-3) Michigan is improved, but they are where ND was LY. ND is a year ahead in their rebuilding. Michigan had a huge effort LW at home off their controversial week and I expect them to be motivated, but they will run out of gas in the 2nd H. More to come.

We agree on #334, 357, 373, 376, , 313, 320, 326, 317; disagree on 317 total. Last week agreed on 14 games, and those went 10-4. Good luck this week!