Shooter's Week #3 CFB

Shooter's Week #3 CFB 84-54 YTD Game Sides 37-28 Game Totals 28-18-1 Halftime Sides 12-4 Halftime Totals 7-5-2 102 Miami (FL) (-5) I bet this at -4. It's now 4.5 in Vegas and 5.5 offshore. Avg out to -5. This line looks high considering Paul Johnson is 17-5 ATS as a Road Dog at Navy and Ga Tech and Randy Shannon is 3-9 ATS as a home chalk. However, the line movement shows where the shapries are going on this one. I have some concerns about the GT secondary and allowed the frosh QB from Clemson to hit them for big play after big play in the 2nd half. 103 Boise State (-7) Lots of movement for Fresno, but I wasn't that impressed with their performance at Wisconsin. Wisconsin never seems to get away from teams anyway. 171 Louisville (+14') (-111) Pinny My old "don't overvalue week 1" theory in play here. Kentucky absolutely dominated Miami-O in every aspect of the game and Louey struggled with Indiana State, who may the worst team in FBS or FCS college football. Plus, the 27-2 performance is fresh in the minds of bettors from LY. UL was -3 at home and lost 27-2 to UK and now they are +14 in Lexington. That's a huge reversal of fortune. Kragthorpe is on the hot seat, but his teams were under .500 at Tulsa his first two years and they did improve that program big time. Talent is = between the two clubs. More to come. GL

109 Eastern Michigan (+24) Michigan is off two Monster emotional games with W Mich (the week of the extra practice allegations) and a final second win over Notre Dame. Now they get a dud opponent in Eastern Mich. How much gas do they have left in the tank? They win two games and all is right with the world and Michigan is completely all the way back. At least, that's what the media would have you believe. I think these guys are starting to believe their own hype and read their press clippings. The coaches and players are doing every national interview possible. This is a play against the hype play. Now, E Michigan comes in after fighting back to tie Northwestern in Evanston. E Michigan is coached by Ron English, who was the longtime Michigan DC under Carr and was sent packing by Rich Rod. I think E Mich can hang around with a less than focused Michigan club. 159 California (-13') (-113) 159/160 Cal/Minnesota UNDER 53' Last tie Cal was laying 2 TD's in a far away road game, they were beaten badly in the 1st half by Maryland. Cal will be in Minny a day and a half early. Cal had the 2nd-best defense in the Pac-10 LY behind USC (who had multiple NFLers drafted). They may be the best or at least close to USC in the Pac. 119 East Carolina (+7') The whole world was on ECU at West Va LW and I faded that and the Mounties won easily. Now ECU goes to UNC and the line opened 7 and is now 7.5. I think people are jumping off the ECU train a little early. 117 Temple (+30) @ Bet Jam and Bookmaker. Most of Temple's coaching staff either coached or played under Joe Pa. Temple is off a bye week and lost in Week 1 at home to Div I-AA Villanova. Teams that lose a game to an FCS opp are usually good play-ons their next time out. Plus, PSU has the revenge game that took them out of the national title picture with Iowa. Smaller play here considering PSU has not covered their first two big #s and may be due. 116 Clemson (-6') -7 most places. -6' at Pinny. BC is still undecided on the QB situation. They played two good defensive games and had two easy wins at home. Clemson has some confidence with their performance at GT LW.

106 Army (-7) (-120) Army failed as their small chalk and then back to small dog role LW. This week they do get Ball State, who has a completely clueless new coach. Rich Ellerson against Stan Parrish is a total mismatch coaching wise. 131/132 Duke/Kansas OVER 50 Posted too late. I played 48' and its now 50 and 50'. Still like it. Duke's offense got going with the insertion of Sean Renfree at QB in the 2nd Half. 107/108 Northern Illinois/Purdue UNDER 56 Purdue has soared over the total in the first two weeks. #'s have now caught up to them.

We agree on Boise St, California, and EC. Disagree on EM/Michigan and Purdue total. Good luck big boy!

More agreements and disagreements to come. :)

145/146 Ohio State/Toledo UNDER 58 Toledo has been very impressive on offense the first 2 games and spotty at best on defense. Of course, Tim Beckman brought his porous defensive record from Ok State where he was the DC LY. Ohio State is frequently singled out, amongst other Big 10 teams, as not having good enough team speed. That is partially true when you compare them to LSU, Florida, USC and other powerhouses. But this is Toledo. I think OSU is going to go back to running the ball and keeping Toledo's offense off the field. 193 North Texas (+38') Bama has their SEC opener on deck with Arkansas. No Texas is an improved team. UNT has lost to 2 ranked teams under Dodge (07' at Oklahoma 79-10 and LSU 41-3 in 08'). However, this is a much better team. 125/126 Wyoming/Colorado OVER 52 (-103) 126 Colorado (-6') (-111) Colorado has lost their L2 in bad fashion and now they lay 7 here? Hawkins is on the hot seat big time and they should be focused after that embarrassment on national TV on Friday night. Wyoming, despite the offensive woes LW vs. Texas, is improved on offense. Their new HC is Dave Christensen, formerly the OC at Mizzou LY. He runs the same offense at Wyoming and they will be able to put up points on the CU secondary and run a lot of plays in a no-huddle spread.

196 Maryland (-5') (-112) Maryland blown out by Cal and then taken to wire by James Madison at home and eventually won in OT. James Madison is a top 10 FCS program. Maryland was -13 last year @ Middle Tenn and lost 24-14 and now they only lay 6 at home? Line overreaction here. They were 2 TD's larger of a dog at Clemson. I don't think Clemson, although a better team, is 14 better than Maryland on a neutral. The Terps were flat in this game LY. They will be focused here. This is the 2nd of a 4-game homestand for the Turtles. Middle Tenn ran Tony Franklin's offense better LW, but it was against a clueless Memphis team. 165/166 Tulsa/Oklahoma UNDER 58 I know Tulsa has put up 37 and 44 in first 2 games, but I don't think we have yet to see the drop-off in Tulsa's offense that exists. We will see it in this game. The loss of Gus Malzahn is huge and will be felt here. OU's RS Fr Landry Jones is talented, but he still makes bad reads and is not exactly grace under pressure just yet. 141/142 Nebraska/Virginia Tech UNDER 51 Both defenses are improved and this game was a shootout LY. It won't be here. GL

130 Akron (-4') Indiana is 2-0, but could've easily been 0-2. W Mich got down in Indiana's red zone at the end of the game before a late fumble. IU ran the ball well last week, which was a surprise. Akron played IU two years ago in Bloomington. IU covered (-13') 41-24, but it was a late cover (2 TDs in last 6:25) and Akron was playing 2 QBs (Carlton Jackson, now at Morgan State and current starter Chris Jacquemain). This was the game two years ago that Jacquemain won the job. They got behind with Jackson and Jacquemain brought them back. Akron opened their new on-campus stadium LW, but this is the game they have been looking towards. A Big 10 opponent in their stadium. This line is not smallish either. The oddsmakers firmly believe Akron is clearly the better team in this spot and so do I. 129/130 Indiana/Akron OVER 46 These two clubs put up 65 in the last meeting. IU's front four is good at rushing the passer, but their secondary stinks. 200 Troy (-6') (-107) Fading the steam here. Troy off 2 bad performances and now returns home. Troy (most of the yrs in I-AA) has never lost a home opener under Blakeney. This includes wins over Mizzou in 2004 and Oklahoma State in 2007. UAB was a DD fav at home LW to SMU and got dominated even only losing by 2. SMU had a 28-7 lead. UAB's defense is their weakness in this game. Rice moved the ball on them and so did SMU. Troy will get their offense going here. 144 Notre Dame (-10) Wanting to get it under 10. If it doesn't, I still like it. People are writing off the Irish too early. MSU still undecided about QB (although Cousins taking more of the snaps). MSU has won the L6 in South Bend. This is an underdog series and the line opens over DD. Seems as if they dare you to take Sparty.

137/138 USC/Washington UNDER 53' Much has been made of USC losing 8 starters on defense, but all they did was reload. Both sides familiar with each other with Nick Holt (DC) and Steve Sarkisian now at UW. 138 Washington (+20) UW clearly has an offense that can move the ball with a healthy Jake Locker that can stay in games against good teams (i.e. LSU). I think Sark will have the Huskies pumped for this one. They got the monkey off the back by breaking that losing streak and now they won't play as tense. 135 Utah/Oregon UNDER 53' Oregon still has problems in the running game and their offense (despite having 38 pts - 14 of which were pick sixes) still is in flux. Utah has a much better defense than Purdue. 133/134 Virginia/Southern Miss OVER 44 (-107) I think the UVA offense will perform better this week and So Miss is really grasping the spread under Larry Fedora. 127/128 Arizona/Iowa UNDER 42' (-115) Iowa is struggling to run the ball and got a lot of their 35 pts LW off short fields and Iowa St TO's (28 in fact).

167/168 UConn/Baylor OVER 44' 168 Baylor (-10) (-115) These two teams put up 59 LY, but we get good value off UConn only putting up 10 pts LW at home vs. UNC and 23 on the road at Ohio. Baylor off a bye week and was able to control the game and move the ball easily on a good Wake defense. Griffin got held to 46 yds on 23 carries LY. It was his first road start however. Baylor only has NWestern St and Kent St on deck. UConn will have their complete focus here. 155/156 Nevada/Colorado State OVER 57 Nevada got shut out in Week 1 at Notre Dame, but have had a bye week and that will do them good. Weber controlled the ball for 83 plays to CSU's 47 and had a 38-22 time of poss edge LW. Weber had a 25-12 1st Down edge. Nevada will be able to move the ball on CSU and CSU can do the same with the Wolfpack.