360 Georgia Tech (-2') (-108)
GT off an unimpressive performance in Miami and didn't drop the hammer vs. Clemson the week prior and nearly got beaten. They also let up vs. Jacksonville St. This team has shown potential to be real good, but has yet to put a full game together. I think this is the week for them to do it. They lay a small # here, with UNC off a good win over underdog-cover machine East Carolina.
359/360 North Carolina/Georgia Tech UNDER 45'
310 Northwestern (+1)
I think the good doctor may have hit this one the other way, but I get a little better # here. The revenge factor a little overrated here. Minny has covered the L5 in Evanston, but it ends here.
311 Indiana (+20) (-105)
This line looks awful small for Michigan vs. a 3-0 Hoosier team that's not great. Bad spot for Michigan though with a trip to Sparty country next week. Michigan's defense still leaves a little to be desired as well.
311/312 Indiana/Michigan OVER 54
314 Temple (-3)
I played this at -2.5 on Wed. Still like it at -3 or -3(-120). Temple got beat on a hail mary on the last play in Buffalo LY. Temple has ONE home win in the month of September since 2001 and have lost 3 straight to Buff and are winless on the year and yet they are favored? Hmmm.
315/316 Michigan State/Wisconsin UNDER 54 (-105)
327 Fresno State (+17) (-120)
I played this at +17 (-110) but will grade it (-120). I think the lines may be catching up to UC. Pat Hill had to finally figure out that Fresno is at its best when they run the ball.
339 Southern Miss (+14)
KU had all the money (sharp and square) LW and still covered vs. Duke despite the big spread jump. Now they have Southern Miss who had to comeback and were down big to the ACC's worst team (Virginia) at home. Looks easy for Kansas, doesn't it? :rolleyes:
332 Mississippi State (+13)
Big game for the Tigers next week between the hedges. Bulldogs offense is still a work in progress, but their defense can keep it competitive.
305/306 Wake Forest/Boston College UNDER 20' 1st H
Coattailing The Dude here. The play makes sense. BC's offense struggled LW and they still are undecided on their QB. Wake is also a slow-starting team typically.
341 San Diego State (+17)
SDSU lost at lowly Idaho (not that lowly this year, not great but not horrible). AFA comes off thrashing New Mex OTR. SDSU will be prepared for AF. Rocky Long is the DC for the Aztecs and he always had good stuff vs. Air Force when he was at New Mexico.
341/342 San Diego St/Air Force UNDER 53
348 Wyoming (+3') (-113)
Rebels off 2 good performances. Should have won vs. Oregon St and came back late to beat Hawaii in the final minute. Wyoming off 2 dismal performances at home vs. Texas (only TD off blocked punt) and at Colorado (shut out). Not exactly getting the sharp or top number here, but I still think the Cowpokes are the right side.
325 Central Florida (+10')
UCF is a better team with former Wake transfer Brett Hodges at QB. ECU has really struggled offensively. Pinkney is having a terrible year under center and star RB Lindsay is likely to miss another game.
366 NC State (-1) (-104)
There are only a couple actual good newsletters out there. Sports Memo and Phil Steele's Power Sweep along with Kevin O'Neill's are the cream of the crop. Marc Lawrence's Playbook is also good (it's a little trend-heavy for me), but also has some good stuff. One good system is to play against any 3-0 team that is an underdog in Week 4 and was a bowl team the previous year. Pittsburgh is one of those this week. Pitt may have the most talent in the Big East, but they still have a nimrod as their coach and NC State has Tom O'Brien, who does a hell of a lot with not as much talent year after year. Complete coaching mismatch here.
307 Illinois (+14') (-113)
Illinois always seem to give the Buckeyes problems. Spread teams tend to give OSU problems in general. We get an Illini team with good value here off a bye week. Illinois's huge face plant vs. Mizzou is still fresh in people's minds.
317/318 TCU/Clemson UNDER 43 (-112)
377 UTEP (+36)
I know it was against New Mexico St, but UTEP's offense seem to show some life LW for the first time all year. They get Texas off the revenge win over Texas Tech. UTEP actually outgained Texas LY in El Paso and lost by 29 at home. Texas still doesn't stop the pass very well and I think Vittatoe can lead the Miners to a couple cheap scores.
377/378 UTEP/Texas OVER 63
373/374 Miami FL/Virginia Tech UNDER 47' (-105)
374 Virginia Tech (+3) (-116)
All week we've heard the national pundits talk about how sh1tty Va Tech's defense is this year and how the "U" is back. People putting them in the Top 5. I think the Canes are improved, but most of this team is still frosh and sophs. While improved, this is not a top 5 team by a longshot.
349 Arkansas (+18)
349/350 Arkansas/Alabama UNDER 58 (-105)
We saw Ark's offense look good with the pass eff leader Ryan Mallett, but also saw their defense give up 52 to Georgia. I go contrarian with the total here. I think Arkansas can do enough to hang under the #.
329 Akron (+17) (-116)
Good value here off Akron's laying an egg to Indiana at home. If Rodgers starts again, it's still a good bet. It was his first start and he had some jitters early.
361 Idaho (+17) (-107)
Idaho has a good offense and was able to score and move the ball against Washington pretty easily and against a Rocky Long-coached defense in San Diego St. I think they can do enough to hang with Northern Illinois, who is off their upset win at Purdue and has MAC West rival Western Michigan in next week.
393 Western Kentucky (+30)
I like playing teams off a loss to an FCS opp. WKU lost at home to Central Arkansas (who should have won at Hawaii in Week 1). Navy has Air Force in next week and considering their recent domination over Army, it is the game that likely decides the Commander in Chief's Trophy. Big # for Navy to cover even against the horrible Hilltoppers.
389/390 UL Monroe/Florida Atlantic OVER 55 (-105)
390 Florida Atlantic (-3)
Both teams get into conf play and take a break from the guarantee games. I know all the money has been on Monroe early, but this has gotten as small as 3 and I will bite.
396 Arkansas State (-2)
Troy, who owns the Sun Belt, is an underdog in a conference game? Say it isn't so. Arky St off a bye this week. Ark St has a senior-laden team ready to pick off the bully of the league.
351/352 Florida/Kentucky UNDER 54 (-105)
The Gators offense got grounded LW by Kiffin and the Vols. They're due to break out of it here, right?
352 Kentucky (+22)
345 Ball State (+33)
Auburn off an emotional win over West Va and have been the covering and over machine I thought they would be early in the year. Now they play the worst team on their schedule. Should be a walk in the park, eh? BSU is terrible, but their backup QB Tanner Justice came in at Army LW and gave them a chance to actually win. Auburn has the Vols in Knoxville next week and may go through the motions here.
353/354 Arizona State/Georgia UNDER 54
Not counting this one, but I played this on Wed and then I saw that a notable totals player took out that #. I hate when that happens! :p It's now 50'. Still lean under at that #, but won't play it there.
334 Iowa State (-9') (-112)
391 UL Lafayette (+28)
Nebraska has already spanked two Sun Belt schools and come off a heartbreaker in Blacksburg. You'd think they'd make it 3 for 3 here. However, I don't expect Nebraska's best effort here.
391/392 UL Lafayette/Nebraska OVER 53' (-107)
322 Bowling Green (+17)
BG was clearly looking ahead LW at Marshall. BG is still pumped to get Boise to play in their place. Huge deal for that program.
337/338 UAB/Texas A & M OVER 63' (-108)
323/324 Ohio/Tennessee OVER 44' (-105)
This is what I played on Wed, but it's now 46 or 45', which is what I will grade it as. Ohio's not Western Kentucky, but Kiffin showed his guys can and will put up points on a team they have outmanned. I think he does so again here.
371 Louisville (+14) (-104)
Utah's BCS dreams ended in Eugene last Sat. Letdown.
387 Arizona (+3)(-115)
387/388 Arizona/Oregon State OVER 44' (-105)
Zona goes with the new QB in the first road start. Nick Foles does have the better arm, size and upside over Matt Scott though. OSU has owned this series and this looks like too good of a spot for the Beavs here.
343 Vanderbilt (-6') (-115)
Case of getting off a team too early and on another team after the previous week. Vandy laid an egg at home vs. Miss St and Rice covered the whole way easily at Oklahoma St. This is causing many smart people to assume this is a buy sign for Rice. I don't buy it.
375/376 Notre Dame/Purdue OVER 60
Danny Hope has said Purdue is going to let it all hang out offensively and won't go conservative. Notre Dame's pass defense is terrible and so is Purdue's.
367/368 Washington/Stanford OVER 52'
368 Stanford (-7') (-118)
I played -7 (-115), but the good doc took at the # before I could post. Love Stanford in this spot. Washington is going in the right direction, but no way are they a top 25 team. At best, they have a shot at a lower-tier bowl. They are still lacking talent in a lot of areas, especially on defense. Harbaugh has proven to be quite the bully in the fav role.
381/382 Texas Tech/Houston OVER 73 (-105)
383 New Mexico State (+10) (-104)
The Battle of the Land of Disenchantment. These two horrible teams play each other for who won't go winless against fellow FBS schools. However, I think Walker is a better coach than Locksley and from what I have seen of these two teams, New Mexico State seems to have more heart and more fight than the Lobos. New Mex St kept fighting against UTEP LW and New Mexico just rolled over and died against Air Force.
385/386 Washington St/USC OVER 53' (-105)
GL
