SNF Broncos @ Patriots Let's look at the three losses NE has had. Loss one came in week 5
@ Cincy in a driving rainstorm where down the stretch the Pats caught
the brunt of the downpour on their final two drives. Dropped passes due
to the wet conditions cost them, especially on that final drive and the game
ended with a shot into the end-zone that PacMan Jones picked off.
Loss two was at home vs the Jets in week 7. Game goes to OT and the
Jets miss a 56 yd FG attempt giving NE the ball in good field position.
N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Purdum, Holder-R.Quigley.
PENALTY on NE-Chr. Jones, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 38 - No Play.
On the play the refs call a seldom used penalty on Chris Jones for aiding
a teammate by pushing him into the pile on the kick attempt. A back-breaking,
15 yard penalty that gives Foles a much easier 42 yd FG that he hits for
the game-winner.
Loss three came last Monday Night in a bad spot vs a Carolina team that was
on a roll and playing in a rare MNF game at home. Game comes down to the
final plays and again, NE catches the bad break and a controversial non-call
on pass interference in the end zone ends the game instead of the Pats
getting a shot at the one yard line to win the game. Three games that came
down to the last play and NE caught really bad on two of them with the
third just being severely difficult conditions to try and work through.
NE off that bad-break loss and Denver off the big Sun night showdown with
the Chiefs would seem to be a pretty good spot for the Pats in a home game.
Line is Den -2.5 so the Patriots teaser is an obvious first choice to wrap up
the Sunday card with.
Peyton Manning got a surprisingly hit-free week vs the Chiefs as they
had zero sacks and barely touched the QB. Working on a high ankle sprain,
Manning got enough time and space to do his business without it being a
problem. Other injuries for Denver may be an issue in this game though.
TE Julian Thomas has been very limited in practice this week with a knee
injury so his status is up in the air for this game. WR Wes Welker has
also been working through the protocols associated with a concussion
but looks like he'll be cleared to play and a go on Sunday Night. Having Wes
in there looks to be a real big deal for the Broncos. Not only is it his former
team that played hard-ball with him in the off-season but it's vs a NE team
that ranks dead last in the NFL in defending opposing #2 WRs, which I would
classify Welker as. With Thomas hampered, Welker becomes even more important.
The last time NE was a reg season underdog at home was Nov 5, 2006 vs Indy.
The last time a Brady-led Pats team lost a reg season game by more then 7 points at
home was more then 7 years ago, Sept 24, 2006 vs Denver. Brady is 9-4 SU in
games vs Manning led teams. Teasing the Patriots will be my key leg this week.
Not worried about jumping the gun and then watching the game move to +3.
In fact, I think it moves the other way so getting my bets locked in now on NE.
