SNF Patriots @ Falcons The line is approaching 3 on this so hunting around for -2.5
on Atl or +3 on NE is worth the effort. SouthPoint and Aliante
are at -2.5 on Atl while Wynn and Stations has NE at +3.
Offshore indicators say the -2.5 is the better value. Aliante has
the best MLine prices on Atl with -135. On NE it's +135 at LVH.
Total looks like it is settling at 49. Was as high as 50 this week.
Offshore it's 48/48.5 so the line is heading south. The 49.5 at
Golden Nugget and Stations is the best UN available. Pinnacle has
the game at OV 48 -110. I leaned to UN earlier in the week but
line has dropped to where it's a pass now.
No Gronk or Amendola again this week so Edelman remains the #1
option for Brady. Thompkins and Dobson are not NFL starters IMO.
Thompkins has caught just 9 of 28 balls thrown his way but looks
like he'll get targeted at least one more week as his match-up this
week is pretty good. Ridley should get bulk of carries. Bolden has
a knee issue so Ridley is the safe bet for 15-20 carries.
For Atlanta Roddy Smith is the big question mark. Is he healthy
enough to resume his normal duties or will he remain mostly a
decoy. Julio Jones is safe bet to get 10+ targets. Tony G should
get a fair amount along with the RBs Snelling and Rodgers.
Atl off line is shaky so quick pops have been the only thing keeping
Matt Ryan upright.
Took Matt Ryan to throw a TD pass before Tom Brady -115.
