Derivatives I think they're called: player bets, prop bets, quarter bets. That's where the action is, but as books catch on, those, too, will go away.
If teasing gets too profitable, the payout on those will drop as well.
In-game running is what you should learn to stay ahead of the curve. How do books over/underreact to what happens on the field? How do bettors do the same? How often does a team with a 10-point lead with four minutes left actually win? What if the team has a QB with certain criteria?
What is needed is a database similar to Prof Meyer's that analyzes scoring patterns. In an elementary version, you'd put in the score and the time remaining, and it would spit out what the money line odds should be. The advanced version would also have you put in the teams playing and the venue. The ultimate version would take the feed directly from NFL.com.
Even with such an invention, it's as good as its code, and you quickly discover you never have a sample size that's statistically significant. Nobody said it would be easy. But by being forced to eyeball it, it also allows for wrong-side bettors to win more often. The reason hold 'em became bigger than lowball or draw or even stud is because playing wrong will still create a lot of short-term wins.
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Another view: In-game running attracts a different bettor, one who actually has to watch the game. You can learn some things by watching a game instead of analyzing a boxscore. You can also distort your perception as well. Watching sports is an emotional activity, no way around it. But if you can be stoic enough to rise above it, you clearly will have an edge over some ploppy at the Trop who is on tilt because there should have been a pass interference called or some such.
