Some CFB notes Last week I mentioned that Arizona's total was inflated because of reports they would be going no-huddle. But their total came in where I expected it, so I got needlessly backed off what would have been a winning under bet.
Akron, however, with their QB/WR injuries came in under. But though they still have the dead-passing-game problem, I think the total has dropped enough where it isn't a no-brainer to bet them under. I mean, it's down to 42 now, vs NI this week. But they're not out top 2 QBs, leading rusher tailback, leading WR.
Florida? Still under, despite their talk of speeding things up. I think their problem, like USC's, is that they are EVERYONE's focal point in conference play. They are the most geared up for team on the schedule. Above all else, no one wants to be humiliated playing them. Week after week my numbers say their game totals are fair, and week after week they come in under. Now they play GA, whose had an extra week to prep, and last year, by Florida, got... humiliated. And they're getting 15'? Florida is in dogfight after dogfight after dogfight this SEC year. I see it again this week.
BTW, Florida is shuffling its OL again. I have no idea whether this new player is good. That isn't the point. The point is that their shuffling the OL AGAIN, and OLs need cohesion more than any other part of the team.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/content/sports/epaper/2009/10/28/1027_uffoot.html
Colorado did switch from coach's son to non-son. Though it created buzz, like I said last week, it didn't change much. And he seems to be tag-teaming them anyway. I think there should be a rule against using a coach's son anyway. I think it's oddly demoralizing. Colorado, North Texas, both are failing to play up to even the low level of expectations had for them.
I had Baylor +10 vs Ok St and saw the line close +7', so some would argue I had the right side. I don't see it that way. I'm not results-oriented (a poker term, forgive me) but if the bet was made in anticipation that OK St would be looking ahead to the Texas game, it was wrong.
But having said that, I think this means OK St, having won well in a look ahead spot, is really in the zone right now, and will cover vs Texas. Last two years these guys have had great, tough, close games. I see it that way again. I'm holding my bet till gametime hoping somehow to get +10, but I seriously doubt it will be allowed. Early betting favors Texas, but sharps will be buying it back. If it does hit 10, I think it'll be a blink, so grab it fast. But I'll take them at 9 or even 8. The 9 and 8 in CFB are relatively trivial.
This week, Iowa is hurting for RB's and punt and KRs, due to injuries.
https://hawkcentral.press-citizen.com/article/20091028/HAWKS0104/910280343/1053
I'm not sure what to make of it. I thing RB injuries are among the least important of all (witness NW's 4th string tailback kicking ass last weekend). RB's are mostly OL's, really. But I do think Iowa has been playing above their head for some time, and NO team fails to have a flat game eventually, and if these guys can get excited to play Indiana, good for them. I don't see it happening, though. I think the injuries are a little gravy, but flatness is the meat-and-potatoes.
AF has lost 3 starting LB's in the past few month. That's got to weigh too much.
Utah St is in something of the same spot. 3 defensive starters out or big Q for Fresno St, including some real key guys.
As with AF, I worry about rashes of injuries on the same side of the ball for smaller (less depth) programs.
Tulane? Even less depth than the above two teams, and they just lost two starters in their secondary, LSU on deck.
QB injuries:
Pike probably still out for Cincy. Probably doesn't matter.
Page is out at Ball State. Doesn't seem to bother the linemakers. If it doesn't bother them, it doesn't bother me, generally. I'm just looking to see if I need to adjust my stats-based PRs. And if the line says I don't, I don't.
Symanski (sp) is out at Baylor. Losing Griffin there mattered a month ago. Losing Symanski prob doesn't matter now.
Since Hawaii lost Alexander, they haven't been the same team. Current starter left the game last week, but will prob be back. Don't see what difference it makes. They've lost two starting WR's this past month. There's hardly anything left here. But by my estimate it's in the line. If anything, too much so.
Iowa States QB sat out last week, as did their best RB, for that matter. But both are due back this week against a TexA&M side that MUST be flat after a season-making win like they had last week. I'm betting on it, anyway.
LaMo's Revell missed the Kentucky game last week and the line reflected it; he'll miss this Troy game, and the line reflects it again. But too much, maybe. New QB got his feet wet (21 of 44) vs an SEC team and the offense was halfway decent. Now with his jitters gone and vs Troy, they might be allright.
At Toledo, Opelt has missed the last three, and his replacement is now getting subbed for by a guy who didn't show much against Temple. Not looking good. I'm betting under, especially considering their opp, Mia-O, is also missing a starting RB and WR, and I don't see any of this in the total (57').
SMU may be in real trouble. If starter Mitchell can't play. I have no idea, but the line will probably tell us. His subs were weak last game, so they need him.
NI QV Harnish missed last game, and will miss next. I didn't see a drop off statistically, though.
Dobbs is still out for Navy. They geared up and won a death match against Wake last week. I like fading teams after a gear up like that. Leaning Temple; I think the under impact is in the line already (41').
Good luck.
