Some NFL thoughts leading into week 11 Looking to be corrected, because a lot of this is off the top of my head.
Thursday games tend to go over because the defense has fewer days to prepare. This gives teams with a simpler offense an advantage because it will actually work. Oh, look. Denver plays the Jets. And the Jets have an even shorter week because they played tonight. That means even Tebow can throw for 100 yards. I don't have a line yet, but I'll be taking Denver and the over at open. I may play some back at post if the line moves the right way.
Does anyone know why there were no bye teams this week? Historically, the last bye week was 10, and teams with a winning record heading into the final bye week were 90% ATS since 2002? Something ridiculous. This week there were three such teams. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Houston. They all covered. And I forgot about this trend. Mark it down in your 2012 calendar now. There was no excuse for me or anyone else not to point this out again.
Also, lay the wood against Indianapolis in Week 12. We've seen bad teams do poorly ATS after their bye week this season. It's worth another shot.
And I know it's the wrong forum, but fading Penn St seems sensible, if you follow the theory that it isn't till the second game that you notice the effect of something traumatic.
