Well, I've said that 90% of people just want to follow a winners' picks. Conclusion: if you want to get a big following, get posters to post at 57% ATS picks. However, there is a problem as NO ONE can pick 57% over thousands of bets vs Pinny or Cris. That's NO ONE, as in NONE. Sites with a lot of posters will have hot posters who get a huge following, but, over a thousand bets, extremely few remain +EV. I'm up about 90 units over three years, all plays for one net unit, all vs Pinny or Cris. I've never had a losing year in 51 years (betting the WORST line I can find, rarely at Pinny), but this year has been tough. Trust me, this is a WAR. You MUST bet near the APEX, and Fezzik's posted plays almost always move in his direction. Ditto for the Shrink's plays. That info is +EV over the long run. Your edge is extremely small, even in your "best" bets. Look at the Alabama/Texas game. NO One would bet Texas if they knew Mc Coy would go out after 2 passes. Yet, with 3 minutes to go, the score was 24-21, Texas with the ball, and +EV to cover. I had Alabama, and I fully expected to lose (in truth, we got -3 with two locals, so I expected to tie!). In the NFL, the team + in turn overs won about 85% ATS. Think it's easy to predict those?
Old School's rules: (1) get a lot of outs, both those favorite oriented and those dog oriented.
(2) make your own power ratings. (3) bet games early where you think the line will move in your direction (Fezzik is #1 in this!) (4) fade your friends who always end up -EV for the year. It's easier to fade public steam than to chase steam, as the book's are quick to move the line on hot touts' plays (Dr Bob, Steele, Score, Doc, and dozens of others who get hot). If you fade locals' action at post, you WILL not lose.
