Sunday Div Round Playoffs

Sunday Div Round Playoffs Not a whole lot of time for a detailed write-up but will try to add as the day goes on if I find more bets worth considering. 115 SanFran -1 @ 116 Carolina 41.5 Both teams worth considering if you can get them in teaser range but I prefer the visiting 49er side. In the first meet they had no Crabtree, V Davis went down and out in the 1Q and they had no Aldon Smith. Now at full strength and with playoff experience and confidence, I think they get the win here with a very small chance of a decisive Panther win. Teasing Car with their lack of off weapons is still the riskier of the two teases, despite the Panther rest and arduous travel week for San Fran. For both teams, I think the most bet worthy prop item may involve the kickers. Phil Dawson was a top kicker when playing for Cleve, often in bad weather. In the 1H of the season with SF he was respectable but in the 2H it seems as if Harbaugh has grown to trust him in a big way. After going 9 of 12 in the first 8 games, including 0-2 from 50+, Dawson went on a tear. The better he did the more Harbaugh extended his range. He went 23/24 in the 2H of the season and 4/4 from 50+. Over the last 8 reg season games he made a FG of 47 or longer in 7 of them and in 4 of those games he made FG of 52 or longer. On the Carolina side, Graham Gano has been perfect at home. He made 13 of 13 overall @ home plus on the season Gano went 6/6 from 50+. The weather is as good as you can hope for in a Jan game. Temp low 50s, wind 5mph. Both coaches should have no reservations on attempts 50yds or less. I took OV 43.5 longest FG in the game at CRIS.

Vernon Davis. His presence was not a factor in first meeting as he went out in the 1Q with concussion issue. This game he is a good upside player with a couple undervalued props available. Going to pass on receps and yardage and go with two of the higher variance bets. First is the longest recep. He's a big play guy with real good speed and his avg recep is high for a TE. At 16.6 YPR he ranks higher then known big-play WRs like deSean Jackson, AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas. Vernon ranked 8th overall in the NFL in YPR and although they line him fairly high, it's probably not high enough. I made the line 26 and am seeing 22 and 22.5 this morning. At 22.5 or less it's a play for me. Vernon Davis to score a TD +120 or better is the other bet I made. He has scored 14 times in 16 games (one of those 16 games was the 1Q appearance against these Panthers where he failed to score). He has scored in 11 of those 16 games including a score in last weeks icebox game in Green Bay to give him scores in 7 of his last 8 games. In a game where running may not be so easy vs Car def that excels in that area, expect Vernon to get some targets. I actually think they go to him early to try and loosen things up for the run game.

I'm not buying this Charger talk very much - R Mathews hobbled, the SD D is #31 vs opposing #1 WRs and #32 vs opposing #2 WRs - Peyton with an extra week to prepare for this team that came into Denver and won in their last meeting. Now the game has dropped into teaser range. The MLine is -350 to -380 all over so I'll use Broncos as a teaser leg. Can't pair them with SFran because that book is using teaser defense lines on SD/Den so filling some open spots with Den. Starting up some new open teasers is a tad dicey since there are only three games left in season and you never know if you'll find another leg to close out the teaser with. I will have a couple opens though as I do like this Denver spot a lot.

Agree on both counts. People are over-emphasizing the SD regular season win in that it was a Thursday game. Much easier to surprise a team missing three days of preparation. As for SF, you make the same argument I've made regarding Smith/Davis/Crabtree. I'll add that giving an inexperienced quarterback a bye week probably provides more harm than good. If you have defensive props available, NaVorro Bowman's family will watch him play for the first time, although with that story being on ESPN it might have already triggered a run on any line that exists.

In the SD/Den game the wind is the story. In the 1H its supposed to be a steady 25mph with gusts 40-50. Even better, it is blowing virtually sideways. Not good for kicking nor passing. I did fade a few players on their longest reception. Gates and Decker in particular. Gates (UN 17.5) because he is losing targets rapidly to the up and coming Green who stand 6'6" and who is going to Wally Pipp Gates real soon IMO. Faded Decker (UN 29.5) because in the previous two meetings with SD he registered just 5 targets in each. He averages 8.5 targets per game so perhaps SD does something that is detrimental to Deckers output. Just don't see Peyton strong-arming the ball downfield in this wind. More short stuff to Moreno, Welker and maybe the TE and less deep passes that could get affected by wind. Moreno had 8 and 5 receps in his two games vs Chargers. He may be a safe place to go for Peyton if he finds the wind tough to deal with.