Sunday Play

Sunday Play 231 Jacksonville +7 Something is missing with this San Diego team. For one WR Jackson is holding out. RB Mathews is very average so far in preseason and the first game running the ball and has trouble with blitz pickups. LT is also out. LB Merriman is horrible since he's off the juice. QB Gerrard can make enough plays with his arm and legs to kkep th Jags in it and possible win outright. GL to all today.:)

Not arguing with the play, just pointing out that +7.5 was available at many spots through Wed-Thurs and a few still on Friday. You goofed on LVMike for taking an off-peak number so only fair that it gets pointed out that you just did the same thing. You were pretty quick to state that any pro who had USC had them at -11. Similarly, any pro who has the Jags has it at +7.5 or +8.

Fair enough Frank. I got some 7' and some +8 during the week but I can't post a line that doesn't exist and was available for a very, very short time. I also run a service and my clients come first. I release games throughout the week. We gobled up the line just like you did I'm sure. It's a free pick. It's not my best play but something I wanted to share with the board and hopefully it wins.

I had the Jags +7.5, my perspective. The NFL requires good numbers to win. Note, this coming from a guy who hit around 65% in the Hilton Contest the last 2 years (and get hit with the rare 1-4 shredding in my Hilton picks today). Jags +8 good. Jax +7.5 ok Jax +7 no good. Ditto for NE-1 good, NE -2 ok, Ne -3 total garbage etc. If I could have picked vs. CLOSING NFL numbers today, I would have done great, fading the ridulous steam on game into key numbers. No pro is laying -3-100 on NE, Philly -6, Jax +7, Bears +7, etc. Touts tend to hate me, as I call it like I see it. Giving out 'right side, wrong line' plays buries customers in the NFL.........over and over and over again. Frankly, I think it buries customers in EVERY sport, with the exception of early season CBB RAS totals that are just take advantage of lines that are ultra soft. If someone who worked for me showed me tickets for example like "Az +6.5-105, Philly -6-107, Bears +7-105, etc" I would start yelling at him at how incompetent he was......Now at +7, -5, and +8, totally different story. A headline you will never see "Tout cancels Game Of The year, due to line movement".

I had a little on 7.5 and posted 7 because I didn't complete my NFL card until this morning. Too bad we missed out on the +25. Doh! I play a lot of games early in the season, but I can't tell you how true Fezzik's statements are. I used to bet a ton of bad #'s and still hit fair percentages. I did it because I was stubborn and so sure I had the right side. Since being on this forum and even as just a lurker at the old Fezzik's Place, I have drastically reduced the amount of bad #'s that I take. I can't tell you how many losers I have saved in just the first few weeks. It takes years to completely master weeding out all the bad lines from one's card. It's an ongoing process. For instance, b/c I made it a point to do NFL handicapping work early in the week, I was able to get better lines and pinpoint more winners, in spite of my halftime plays performance today. Washington +3 (-120) was a take early this week and thank god it was. To Fezz, Lee, Alf and any other pros. Please chime in on our threads if you feel we have bad #'s. Better yet, I'll just speak for me and let others speak for themselves. Even people that have done this for awhile learn a new trick every know and then. That's why I prefer this forum over places like RX, etc. There are pros here and not many other places (couple at EOG). Thanks for the assistance.

Yeah, I'd say USC -12 or -12.5 is a lot more forgivable than Jags +7 seeing as where they started and closed. But hey, as long as it's just a free advertising pick. No harm no foul.

I think you guys put too much stock in general into where the line was yesterday. If you make SD -5 over JAX for instance, and you believe that your opinion is sharper than the market on that game at the time of your bet, then not taking +7 -105 is a mistake. You probably can't win in general if you are taking +7 -110 at the same time that +7 -105 is available in volume, but whether the line was 7.5 or 6.5 2 days ago doesn't make any difference. I bet Jax +8. But so did someone else. I wanted to bet more, so I took some 7.5 too. If I had missed both numbers, I would have taken +7. I don't see anything wrong with that.

I see everything wrong with it................ Blinded by College Sports winnings with big edges, it is very easy to think you will win in the NFL sans a point onto a key number. LOVED Wash +3. At +2.5.............total garbage. LOVED Jets +3 AT +2.5............total garbage

What if the opener on jets/new england was NE -3.5. Then 3.5 sat there all week, then it moved to 3. I'm guessing you'd be writing, "LOVED Jets +3.5 AT +3............total garbage" yet the only difference would be where some a very small underpaid group of people opened the line. They'd still be playing the same game, and the market line would be the same.

had sd line ~9.3 since prior sunday night. played 9 +15 open, hammered sd 6.8-7.3 range. speaking in hindsight here, but there were many examples that point to the overall end of market trade for nfl week2 being an inefficient mess. way too much overvaluation based on week1 results. of course, market efficiency will get better with each successive week.