Sunday Totals Play from Prof Meyer All trends and systems quoted here can be verified with the Sports Data Query Language.
San Francisco at Atlanta UNDER 42.5 – The Falcons allowed the Saints to pass for 365 yards and three TDs last week, but they won 27-24 in OT by patiently rushing the ball FIFTY times and waiting for their opponent to turn the ball over. All this points to the UNDER here.
The Falcons are 0-10 OU as a favorite when they are off a win in which they allowed at least 280 passing yards, staying under by a significant 13.2 ppg. In addition, Atlanta is 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) the week they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average as an underdog.
In addition, Atlanta is 0-11 OU (-7.6 ppg) the week after they got at least 10 rushing first downs as an underdog, 0-9 OU (-11.4 ppg) as a favorite the week after they after they converted more than 50% of their 3rd downs as a dog and a very healthy 0-19 OU when they are off a game in which they benefited from a two-plus takeaway margin as long as they were not laying more than a FG in that game and it is not the last week of the regular season. The SDQL text for the 0-19 OU trend is:
[B]team=Falcons and p:TOM=-3 and week!=17 and 20001001=2 and p:AL and season>=2006[/B]
Since Mike Singletary took over in 2008, the 49ers have had four games under these conditions. They beat the Bills 10-3 with the OU line at 42, they lost to the Colts 18-14 with the total at 45, they beat the Jaguars 20-3 with the total at 42 and finally, they beat the Cardinals 24-9 with the number at 45. All of the games stayed under by double-digits and the only team that scored in double-digits against them was the Colts.
We expect a wait-and-see start to the game for both teams. The under in the first quarter is at least a good a play as the under for the game.
MTi’s FORECAST: ATLANTA 17 San Francisco 16
As always, intelligent comments welcome.
Prof Meyer
