Super Bowl prop

Super Bowl prop James Starks OVER 16 rushing attempts (-110 @ Lucky's) This one just jumped off the page at me. In the Packers' three playoff games, Starks had 23 carries against the Eagles, 25 against the Falcons, and 22 against the Bears. If he winds up with 15 or fewer in this game, i'll be very surprised. Particularly if the Packers are leading in the second half, which of course they're favored to be.
I like it also but the majority of the resistance is that the Steelers are a great run defense.
I smell a torn mcl or high ankle sprain on carry 11;)
I'd be careful here. I'm not expecting the Packers to run very much at all - they know it's a waste of time. Starks was able to put up those playoff rushing attempts because of the caliber of run defenses and because of the game situation. Starks is Green Bay's best running back, but Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn get carries. So does Rodgers. If protecting a lead, the Packers are savvy enough to throw short and safe rather than waste any type of down running. The cliche about needing a ground game to win the Super Bowl doesn't apply inside a dome against Pittsburgh's run defense, which ranks among the best of all time.

I disagree with the analysis here. That's not to say i disagree that the Steelers have a strong run defense, of course they do (and yes, i was well aware of that when i made the bet). But it's not like Starks has been particularly effective lately; he had a big game against the Eagles but was around 3 yards per carry during the last couple of weeks. That's pretty bad, and frankly, it'll be hard to do much worse against the Steelers. I don't expect Starks to run wild here, but we're talking about carries, not yardage. And it's apparent that Green Bay will feed him the ball regardless. Game situation will undoubtedly come into play here, it always does, and i definitely don't want to see the Packers fall into a big hole. But if you think that Green Bay is just going to abandon the run because Pittsburgh is strong in that facet of the game, then you don't know football very well. You "dance with who brung ya", and right now James Starks is a big part of that. If Green Bay gets out to a nice advantage, this one comes in easily (short of injury, of course). It sure as hell ain't a coin-flip, that much i know.
[QUOTE=DiscreetCat;38709]I disagree with the analysis here. That's not to say i disagree that the Steelers have a strong run defense, of course they do (and yes, i was well aware of that when i made the bet). But it's not like Starks has been particularly effective lately; he had a big game against the Eagles but was around 3 yards per carry during the last couple of weeks. That's pretty bad, and frankly, it'll be hard to do much worse against the Steelers. I don't expect Starks to run wild here, but we're talking about carries, not yardage. And it's apparent that Green Bay will feed him the ball regardless. Game situation will undoubtedly come into play here, it always does, and i definitely don't want to see the Packers fall into a big hole. But if you think that Green Bay is just going to abandon the run because Pittsburgh is strong in that facet of the game, then you don't know football very well. You "dance with you brung ya", and right now James Starks is a big part of that. If Green Bay gets out to a nice advantage, this one comes in easily (short of injury, of course). It sure as hell ain't a coin-flip, that much i know.[/QUOTE] Agree and McCarthy has always said rushing attempts are more important than yards per carry. He needs attempts to set up the rest of his gameplan. I do believe GB will look to throw early and often but if they run 60 plays and Rodgers throws 40 times that still leaves 20 rushing attempts. Rodgers may take some of those attempts. Forget about Kuhn and Jackson. They haven't seen much at all in the post season. And, if GB is up, Starks will get some attempts because of the game situation as well. Value at 17 or less IMO.
I hv 18.5 under.
[QUOTE=fullvalue1212;38713]I hv 18.5 under.[/QUOTE] That's great. Now, please take back your "torn mcl" statement on carry 11. Make it carry 17 and it will work better for everyeone:)
[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;38716]That's great. Now, please take back your "torn mcl" statement on carry 11. Make it carry 17 and it will work better for everyeone:)[/QUOTE] I smell torn mcl on carry 17!! ;)
Packers have been in front the last 3 games and have had every opportunity to give Starks the ball. They have yet to trail for a significant amount of time in the playoffs. If they get up on Pitt then yes this probably wins, but if they go down he may not get 10 carries, imo.