Super Bowl XLV Props [B]Longest Gross Punt Tim Masthay Over 55 yards -110[/B]
This prop has bounced around between 54 and 55.5 and Masthay is much better than the Steelers punter Kapinos who came on as a replacement later in the season. Masthay has had a couple of 62 yarders, but on top of that what we like is that Cowboy Stadium has the top punter average of 47.9 yds with Mark McBriar. NYG punter Dodge had his longest punt of the season at 69 in Dallas, and the Saints punter Morestead had his season best at 65.
It is much easier to punt indoors, with no wind, where there will be a sell-out crowd of 100,000+ people in the dome, making a warmer situation and the Steelers do not let their punt returnees of Antonio Brown and Antwan Randle El handle many inside 12 yards. More than likely that will be the punt that puts us over the top that bounces into the endzone for the extra yardage.
[B]Total Number of Green Bay Packers to have Rushing attempts
OV/UN 4......Over -170[/B]
RBs Starks, Jackson, Kuhn and QB Aaron Rodgers will all have carries. Some places have -4.5 -120, not good, 4 should give us an automatic push and if any other Packer say, Flynn comes in and takes a knee, or Jennings or Driver has an end around also RB Dimtri Nance has filled in, in some spots, gives us a win.
[B]Jordy Nelson Total Receptions
Ov/Un 3 .........Over 3 -130[/B]
Nelson is improving rapidly and is targeted more. He has been a force in the redzone and at 6' 3" he is the Packers biggest WR and not afraid to take on the Steelers secondary. He had 4 receptions vs the Bears and indoors on a fast track he had 8 vs Atlanta. Do not play Over 3.5 here....half a reception is worth plenty and 3 is a push.
[B]1st Field Goal Missed
Wide Right +100
Wide Left -130...........play Wide Left[/B]
I pounded this prop last year in Las Vegas to point that it has basically disappeared. It is at the Greek currently. Last year (Saints kicker G Hartley hooked one way left) was the first time we have seen the wide props and the way kickers have the holder (usually the punter) tilt the football to the left and the kickers are trying to produce a right to left draw similar to that of a slight hook/draw in golf, they get good contact and more distance as well instead of the dreaded wide right push which is usually a result of the plant foot sliding. That should not happen indoors on the beautiful matrix turf in Cowboy Stadium.
Packers kicker Mason Crosby missed 6 field goals during the regular season. THREE of those HIT THE LEFT UPRIGHT, one was wide right, one was blocked and one was completely wide left, so we are hoping he won't hit the left up-right, if it does or hits the crossbar, no action. (although I'd like to find a sportsbook that would book it at 100-1!) In the playoffs Crosby was 2 of 3 and his lone miss....you guessed it, hit the the left up-right in the dome in Atlanta. Realistically 7 missed FGs, 5 were missed to the left side.
Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham was on board with the Steelers after they let Jeff Reed go when he missed a couple of key FGs vs the Patriots. Suisham was 14 of 15 in the regular season and 2 of 3 in the post season, one was wide left and one was wide right, but we have seen Suisham's football flight and it is a right to left action as well. Total missed FGs were 9, ...6 missed left = 67%. This line should be much higher.
