superbowl mvp?

superbowl mvp? aaron rodgers looks good at +200.

if gb wins, it wont be a running back and probably not a wide receiver bc rodgers will pass it around. it will either be rodgers or a defensive player...and how often does that happen?

Seems like a fair price at best The current money line says they are a 58% favorite to win the game. For this to be a good bet, you would need Rodgers to win the MVP at least 60% of the time the Packers win. If it is a low scoring win, they could give it to a defensive player or even a special teams player (esp. if one of them scores a TD or makes 2 or more big plays). There is also some non-trivial chance that a RB or WR could win it. A player on the losing team could also get the award (it has happened before). If GB loses, there is almost no way that Rodgers would get it. Just some things to think about.

Link below is the list of MVP's by year with position. QB's are 50% all time. More recently. I think Rodgers winning 60% of the time Green Bay wins, sounds about right. Maybe 66% is closer, so there is a little value at +200. [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_Most_Valuable_Player_Award"]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_Most_Valuable_Player_Award[/URL]

I don't see much of a recent spike in QBs winning the MVP at all. In fact QBs were MVP in the first four SBs which may skew things somewhat. Also, this SB has a lower total than is typical for a SB. Suggesting that Aaron Rodgers has a greater than 60% chance of winning the MVP in the event of a GB victory is a huge leap of faith IMO.

I think the total has much less to do with the % of QB winning for a team than how much of the offensive success he and the passing game accounts for. Running backs are 2nd on the all time MVP list that has 50% for QB's. Running game is less important to GB than the average super bowl team, Brandon Jackson isn't even on some MVP bet lists. QB and WR must get a boost.