[QUOTE=Fezzik;12849]Might have been the year or two before the SB win, but I thought it was THE year.[/QUOTE]
Not everybody was on Philly that Sunday afternoon.
[url]https://www.talksport.com/tm.asp?m=174565&mpage=1&key=𪧯[/url]
PHILADELPHIA -4 Tampa Bay 34
I'm really amazed at how little respect TB is getting in this game. And people who are suggesting that Philadelphia will win this game easily because of the past contests between these two teams and because of TB's perceived lack of offense, just aren't reading the whole picture. First, forget about the last two years where Philadelphia beat this TB team in the playoffs here in Philadelphia. Why can we forget these two games? First of all, it's John Gruden coaching TB now and not Tony Dungy. Second, this is a completely different team, especially on defense. Remember the better defensive team in the CC game is now 44-18-2 since 1970. TB is allowing a staggering 12.3 points per game this year. If you think the Bears defense of 1985 was one of the best defenses ever, you better remember the 2002 TB defense. Chicago allowed 12.4 ppg that year. TB is allowing 12.3 ppg. That Chicago defense allowed 4.4 yppl while this TB defense is allowing just 4.2 yppl. That Chicago defense intercepted 34 passes. This TB defense intercepted 34 passes. The Bears defense did have 63 sacks compared to only 43 for TB but other than that, the TB defense is slightly better than the Chicago defense. I keep hearing questions like how is TB going to score on Philly. Well, how is Philly going to score on TB? You might say they have done it the past couple of years. Well, the TB defense isn't the same defense that we saw the past couple of years. Again, they are allowing just 12.3 ppg. Three years ago, they had a great defense that was allowing just 14.7 points per game and they went into St. Louis and held the high flying Rams offense to just 11 points. Remember that was the fourth best offense (points per game average of 32.9) since 1983. And that TB defense was allowing 14.7 points per game. This unit is allowing just 12.3 ppg. The last two years when TB has gone to Philly, their defense has allowed 17 and 18 ppg. That's five and six points more per game than they are allowing this year! You might say they already beat TB here in Philly this year (against this year's defense and John Gruden) but I would say this is a different team now than then. Gruden was still trying to get his offense straight at that time. For the season, TB's offense is averaging 21.6 points per game. But we know how bad their offense is when Brad Johnson isn't in there. When Johnson has played this year, they are averaging 24.0 ppg. And since that Philadelphia loss, TB is averaging 27.1 ppg (counting last weeks game). Prior to the Philadelphia game, they were averaging just 23.8 ppg (when Johnson played).
Philadelphia didn't look too efficient last week against Atlanta. And something has happened to this Philly defense since the McNabb injury. Before McNabb's injury, Philadelphia was averaging 5.1 ypr and allowing just 3.9 ypr. Since his injury, they have averaged just 3.5 ypr (also averaged just 3.5 ypr against Atlanta last week with McNabb) and are allowing a staggering 4.9 ypr. They allowed Atlanta just 3.9 ypr last week but teams are finding ways to run on this team. I'm not suggesting TB will run wild on Philly this week but I do think they can match the nearly 4.0 ypr that they got in the first game against Philly this year. Philly ran for 159 yards on 34 attempts in that game but Duece Staley had 57 of those yards on a carry at the end of the game, which means they only gained 102 yards on 33 attempts prior to that for 3.1 ypr. So, there is no reason to think Philly can run on this TB team. McNabb only ran for four yards on six attempts in their previous meeting this year and TB has shut down the quicker quarterbacks this year, evidenced by their domination of Michael Vick in two previous meetings. So, I don't see how Philly will generate any offense. The running game was shut down before and the TB pass defense is simply out standing. They are allowing just 4.5 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps and they held Philly to a measly 4.1 yps in their first meeting.
The Philly defense is excellent as well and I expect them to put a lot of pressure on Brad Johnson and he probably won't escape some of that pressure. He was sacked six times in the first game (actually five times and Rob Johnson was also sacked once) but Gruden usually has some safety valves in his offense for Johnson to check down to. This game should be a low scoring hard fought battle that will probably end up within seven points, either way. The problem with taking Philadelphia (if you really believe it will be a seven point game either way) is it will be very hard to cover a line that is sure to be over four points come Sunday. While, if you take TB and the points, you have an excellent shot at getting the cover win or lose. How are you going to feel about 1 ½ quarters into the game on Sunday if Philly is down 0-10? They'll need two touchdowns and to win and that won't be enough to cover the spread. Meanwhile, if TB is down 0-10, they'll just need a touchdown to get the cover. I don't think Philly will score based on turnovers. Brad Johnson just doesn't turn the ball over. He's only thrown seven interceptions this year and never more than one in a game with the exception of two in the Cincinnati game. If TB can muster 10-14 points, it will be very tough for Philadelphia to cover this game. And the TB offense is much better as of late with Brad Johnson in charge. TB allowed 23 and 26 points to NO this year. That is a pretty good offense (and six points in the first game were on an interception from the punter to end the game) and they allowed 24 points to Minnesota. The Minnesota points were scored mainly because TB had the game put away. They also allowed Philly 20 points in the meeting this year but seven of those points were scored after a turnover deep in their own territory. So, it will be very hard for Philly to muster more than 14 points in this game.
More importantly consider this. This TB defense is a special defense this year, allowing just 12.3 ppg. There have been 64 teams that have gone on the road in the CC game since 1970. On nine other occasions a team has gone on the road with a defense that allowed fewer than 14 points per game (pretty equivalent to the great TB defense of this year) and faced a defense that allowed more points per game than the road team (meaning the road team had the superior defense). Those nine teams went 6-2-1 against the spread. One of those losses were the 1976 Steelers who had to face the Raiders without Franco Harris and Rocky Blier, so you could say those teams are 6-1-1 when playing with their starting line up. Also, if our road team was facing a team that allowed at least 14 points per game (so they weren't facing another dominant defense), our road team was 5-1 ats with the only loss again the '76 Steelers team. So, when dominant defenses go on the road, they come back home with the cover, more times than not. If I stretch it out to road teams who allowed less than 15 points per game, I get 9-3-1 and 8-2 if the home team had a defense that allowed at least 14 point per game (8-1 if you discount the '76 Steelers). In four of those 10 contests, the road team lost to this same team but went 3-1 ats in the CC game. So, excellent defensive road teams win in the CC game and they still win if they lost earlier that season to this same team.
Lastly, if you read enough information this week, you'll hear about home teams in the CC game that played on the road in the CC game the previous year. Those teams are 12-2 ats since 1970, meaning Philadelphia sets up just fine for the natural progression to the SB here. But what you won't find out anywhere else but here is that when the road team had the better defense, the home team was just 4-2 ats. So, if the home team has the better defense and played on the road in the CC game the previous year, they are 8-0, but only 4-2 if they don't have the better defense. So, that is negated a little bit here.
My numbers indicate this line should be anywhere from a pick 'em to Philly by 4.5 points. I'm pretty sure by Sunday, this line will be 4.5 points, meaning the value lies with TB. I also get a final predicted total of 34 or 35 points, indicating this total is just right. I would feel better about the under if this total was 37 or 38 but at 34 I just think there isn't enough room for error, should a couple of turnover's, etc. result in scores. The study I did above which resulted in a 9-3-1 record for the road team with a dominant defense, produced a median point total of 31 points in those games and an average of 32 points.
TB has the better defense. Their offense isn't as bad as people think and they don't turn the ball over (seven interceptions by Johnson this year). The better defense is now 44-18-2 ats, including 16-8-1on the road and dominant defensive teams on the road, when not playing against another dominant defense, are 5-1 ats and 5-0 if you take out the '76 Steelers game. My predicted line says this line should be closer to a pick 'em than the 4 or 4.5 points on Sunday. Tampa Bay is a solid live dog here. TAMPA BAY 17 PHILADELPHIA 13
