Teasing #424 Green Bay Last week it was the Saints in the Superdome on Monday Night
that were used probably more then any other team in teasers and for
good reason. This week it should be the Packers. Green Bay is
off of a bye week where they have used the extra time to stew over
their mistake-filled loss @ Cincinnati. The Pack lost two fumbles
including the critical one in the 4th Q by rookie Johnathon Franklin
that was returned for a TD. Aaron Rodgers threw two INTs in
that game, something that hadn't happened in 2012 nor 2011 and
covered a stretch of 42 reg season games. It's been since early
in that same 2010 season since the Packers have lost two straight
games and you'd have to go back to 1991 to find the last time the
Detroit Lions won at Lambeau Field.
Detroit has looked good and broke a similar long term road losing streak
(21 games) when they won in Washington two weeks ago. The Redskins
were playing the worst defense in the NFL at that time (more yards
allowed in the first three games of a season by any team since 1966)
and the Lions caught the breaks at the end of that game when a TD pass
to Aldrick Robinson was ruled dropped in the end zone as he hit the
ground. This was the same type of ruling that cost the Lions a game in
Chicago a couple years back. That win ended an amazing 21 game losing
streak when visiting the Redskins, a mark for futility on the road that was
second only to the one held in this spot by the Lions who have lost 22
straight in Green Bay. Unlike the game in Wash, this does not look like
a set-up for an end to that losing streak.
Green Bay sits at 1-2 and Detroit and Chicago are both 3-1. If Green Bay
is going to make something happen in the NFC North they can not fall to
1-3 and go down in the div record tie-breaker at the same time. This is
as close to a must win at this stage of the season as there is. Coming
off of their bye week, playing at home and getting at least some of their
key injured people back (Clay Mathews and Eddie Lacy look good, Jermichael
Finley and James Starks are still wait and see), the Packers are in an
off-the-charts good spot in this game.
The line sits at GB -6.5/-7 but looks like it will be solid 7 soon and maybe
more. The moneyline is -300 or higher everywhere (CRIS -330) and that
is a price more in line with a game-7/-7.5. Using it in a teaser not only
perfectly aligns you with the "Packers will win" thinking but it is mathematically
superior to any moneyline bet that could be made right now. A 2 team teaser
costing 110/100 carries with it a required break-even win pct of -262. Clearly
the teaser is the better way to bet the Packers to win vs that hefty money
line. It's essentially the same bet at 15%-20% less the cost.
Loading up now on the Green Bay teaser side and it will be the key game
this week for those bets.
