Thur NFL - Cincinnati -2 1/2

Thur NFL - Cincinnati -2 1/2 Greetings, Since Yoda is partying on west coast with UCLA and USC cheerleaders I will step in with an NFL winner for Thursday. So far, I'm 6-2 this preseason picking spots - [B]Thursday NFL[/B] [B]254 Cincinnati -2 1/2[/B] All indicators along with probability factor power ratings suggest value. Many teams use 3rd preseason game as dress rehearsal for regular season before shutting down in last preseason game. Impressed with defensive middle of Bengal focus on shutting down run... Let's CA$H a Ticket Obi-ONE

I agree, also played the under.

NFLX basic strategy: bet bad teams. I see all the offsetting factors for Cinci: a) -2.5 at home is really small b) game 3 is tasken most seriously amongst exhibition games But I don't think that is enough. The reason to bet awful teams in pre-season is that they may well try to win. Cinci is good enough that they probably care only about the regular season. StLou is truly awful. I haven't yet decided between pass or StLou, but no way I bet Cinci.

[QUOTE=rhinoceros;1208]NFLX basic strategy: bet bad teams. [/QUOTE] i thought the strategy would be to bet on teams that are really trying to win that week. conversely, bet against teams that do not care. and there are some corollaries with betting on coaches that love to win (Shanny, Parcells) and against those that tend not to care (Reid, Dungy). Some coaches seem to really care about week 3 (Belichek) as it's the dress rehearsal week. i gotta tell ya, the coaching changes this year really blew away some good preseason betting, especially with shanny and dungy. with cincy and stlouis, it dont see a motivation either way. Lewis may want to get a win this week being at home and it'll show up better on HBO's Hard Knocks. Stlouis has been competitive thusfar but is this the game they try to show up and get a big win? It's unclear.

both teams are bad. I bet a nice chunk on Jags +7.5 Miami looks like a nice teaser team to me