Top NFL Newsletter Plays

Top NFL Newsletter Plays Phil Steele/Northcoast Sports ================== 458 New Orleans -3 vs Atlanta -It's interesting how much support is out there for the Saints yet pushing this number off the 3 has been tough except at the squarest of shops. Other games like TBay and Dallas slid off 3 with much less resistance. Tough to go against Saints in this spot. 8-0 at home with their coach on the sidelines in 2011. Crowd at Superdome should do their part. Saints offense will do theirs. It's the Defense everyone worries about. 481 Houston -4 @ San Diego -Steady stream of action on Texans this week so it's now 4/4.5 vs 3.5/4 earlier in the week. Steele claims he was 9-0 using Texans last year. Cites SD 0-4 record at home vs playoff teams. Marc Lawrence/Playbook =============== 458 New Orleans -3 vs Atlanta -Think this might be a popular one. 468 Carolina +3.5 vs Seattle -Seahawks 4-0 ATS preseason. Panther 2H of season success, West traveling East angle and teams being better prepared for Russell Wilson all pointed to as reasons to back Carolina. 463 Cincy +3 @ Chicago -Dalton 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in non-div road games. Cutler 6-18 ATS as fave at home in non div games. Data mined subsets to make his point of who plays better vs unfamiliar opponents. States that Bears are 2-9 SU/1-9-1 ATS prior to playing Vikings. Sports Reporter ========== 459 Tampa -3.5 @ NYJets -Probably more to gain by waiting on this than firing now but support for Jets may be less the reason than just pure buyback that will occur. Some guys holding big positions on Bucs and at the right price will come back on Jets and pray for TBay by 3. 473 Arizona +4.5 @ St Louis -Agree that laying more than a FG with Rams is asking a lot. Don't like Carson Palmer much but will admit to having some Cards at +5.5 in my pocket already. Think this settles at 4, maybe better. 469 Minny +4.5 @ Detroit -Another one I bet midweek. Took +6 on a game I think settles at 4. Preseason results pushed this line to it's midweek peak. Minny laid low while Detroit adding Bush and some bodies in the secondary, then walloping Patriots in week 3 "dress rehearsal" all fueled Lions support. Vikings quietly won 10 games and made playoffs last year. Pass game should be better even with the swap of Jennings for explosive Harvin. 472 Colts -10 vs Oakland -Here is one where if you don't have those Colts teasers already in, you have to lay doubles. Certainly not my first choice. 9 of 11 Colts wins last year were by a TD or less but this is not your typical opponent. If you have teasers in from August betting then you're in great shape. Winning Points ========= 459 Tampa -3.5 -More support for Bucs, or more accurately, disdain for Jets. 463 Cincy +3 @ Chicago -Another on Bengals. Cincy +3.5 was available for quite awhile in August. Now painted 3 and bleeding down. 468 Carolina +3.5 vs Seattle -Car played Sea last year at home and lost 16-12 in week 5. Both teams improved 2H. 3.5s are getting hard to find. 473 Arizona +4.5 @ St Louis -A lot of the anti-Cards money is due to how they just deteriorated as 2012 wore on. Fresh start with new coach and QB vs Rams trying to get their offense settled with new RB and no Danny Amendola as Bradfords go to WR. St L pass rush vs AZ off line that was awful last year and missing #1 draft choice Cooper could be real problem. Been looking at this total for a week now thinking that 42 seems a little high but no real movement yet. ------- These games were released by various service newsletters as their best bets. They are not recommendations, just info on what the touts were on early in the week and why the betting public may have been attracted to these plays. The line I quote is not theirs (they rarely give lines with their plays), it's the current most reasonable line available with extra info if relevant. These were released Tuesday or earlier. Caveat Emptor.

Bit Tardy but Gold Sheet plays were/are: INDY --- lost OVER in NE/BUF --- lost HOUSTON by 15 vs. San Diego --- lost Will put them up in a more timely manner next week

Goldsheet NFL Week 3 Key Releases We have decided that cut and paste of newsletter write-up material is not the way to go with this. We can discuss the picks here and analyze the market and the game. You can summarize the reasoning they gave, which is how I've gone about it thus far so reprinting it is unnecessary. I'll get these games up tomorrow along with the others and we can look at the current lines and the movement thus far. Thanks for the help though. Just leave the write ups out going forward.

NFL newsletter Plays Gold Sheet Colts Seahawks Over Lions Phil Steele N.Orl. Houston Detroit Marc Lawrence NY Giants Vikings Eagles

Thanks East Coast and Brutus Gold Sheet ------------- 202 Colts -2.5 vs Dolphins -Liked this one too back on Tuesday. That was before RB Vick Ballard was lost for the season. Line dropped a bit on that news. Ahmad Bradshaw steps in and has handled full-time RB chores before. He is also more of threat catching passes out of the backfield than Ballard was. 222 Seahawks -2.5 vs 49ers Think this line is right where it shoud be. Hovering between 2.5 and 3. One of those instances where it seems the 3 is worth more than the average game. 216 Det/AZ Over 48 -Like this OV as well, but can't pull trigger until fairly confident Larry Fitzgerald will be good to go. Ditto for teasing Cards. Need to know he's in there. Phil Steele -------------- 213 NewOrl -3 @ TBay A few out there still with NO -3 -110, but not many. Pinnacle has -3 -107 which suggests they'd prefer you make your Saints bets with them. Appears to be a very bad spot off of the fortunate win vs Atl while Bucs screwed themselves out of game @ Jets. If TBay loses here, they face the very real possibility of starting 0-3 as they travel to NE next. The situation itself screams Tampa. Action has been on Saints but peak was Wed when a few 3.5s were out there. Believe ticket count will favor Saints but that most of the big bets will be on Bucs. 200 Houston -8.5 vs Tenn. -This play was put out by NCoast on Monday, before the MNF game was played. He says he likes them no matter what transpired vs SD. Seems a little presumptuous to say "no matter what" when the result nor injuries are known At 8.5 or less, the teaser is the obvious play here if you must be on Texans. Whether you go for the points or the teaser, I would wait awhile before firing on Houston. That line should drop some on gameday. 215 Detroit -1.5 @ Arizona -Phil cites Reggie Bush and an improved OL as a main reason for backing Lions. Also notes that the Carson Palmer led pass attack of AZ put up the most first downs in a game since 2009 with Kurt Warner. All that sounds like good news for the offenses and an OV play seems logical. Charlie J used it as one of his plays this week and at 47.5 looks like a good bet. If you are in LV you can still get 47.5. Offshore it is mostly 48.5. As far as the Lions go, spot is similar to that of Saints, they looked good last week at home playing in a much better situation. Check status of Larry Fitzgerald. If he is in, I'd definitely pass on Detroit. No pun intended. Marc Lawrence ------------------ 219 NY Giants +4.5 vs Denver -Ten days rest for Broncos off resounding win while Giants did everything they could to not win in Dallas and succeeded in not winning. What comes next makes perfect sense. Every big bettor I know is all over the Giants. Peaked at 5.5 and now down to mostly 4. Might go lower so get it now if you want the GMen. 211 Vikings +6 @ Bears Going down 0-2 with both losses in your division is about as big a hole as you can dig this early on. Urgency is with Vikes. Have to believe money comes in on them on Sunday. 196 Eagles -7 vs Chargers -Game moved from 7 to 8 midweek and then back to 7 this weekend. Marc lists several trends favoring Philly. The most reasonable one might be that SD is 0-7 ATS in first travel game of season going East. The start time is early Sunday, which is what you want. Both are off MNF games.