TOs for week seven?

TOs for week seven? I'd like to hear from the cappers here about teams they feel will be + in TOs this week. I think a rested Indianapolis will get ahead of St Louis, and, St Louis will have 2 or 3 ints, trying to catch up. I have a hunch that Pittsburg will be + in TOs, but they are -5 for the season. NE should be +, but the weather is a concern. I have no solid feelings about any others as of now.

Look for the Falcons to have + TO's vs. the Cowboys.

[QUOTE=BAGIANT;6780]Look for the Falcons to have + TO's vs. the Cowboys.[/QUOTE] Yes, Dallas is soft and sloppy, but they are a rested favorite (on a 40-16 run ATS).

I don't believe turnovers can be predicted with any reliable degree of accuracy. However, if I was up against a wall and had to, I might look for teams who had a plus turnover ratio going into their previous game who suffered a minus ratio in that game. Looking for "plus" teams to bounce back off a bad t.o. week. Conversely, I'd look for teams with a minus ratio going into their last game who enjoyed a plus ratio in that game. Looking for these "minus" teams to revert to their negative t.o. ways after one good week. S.F. had a +4 ratio going into their Atlanta loss where they were minus-1. Would look for them to bounce back this week vs. Houston, especially off the bye. NYG was +6 going into the N.O. game, where they went minus-two. Look for them to bounce back vs. Cards. I'd also play on NYJ which went into the Bills game even on the season, but went minus-4 in that game. Conversely, Buffalo was minus-6 going into that NYJ game where they went plus +4. Would look for them to go minus this week vs. Carolina. Finally, St. Louis was a big minus-7 going into the Jax game and went +2. Would look for the Rams to cough the ball up more than the Colts this week.

[QUOTE=gaslamp;6789]I don't believe turnovers can be predicted with any reliable degree of accuracy. However, if I was up against a wall and had to, I might look for teams who had a plus turnover ratio going into their previous game who suffered a minus ratio in that game. Looking for "plus" teams to bounce back off a bad t.o. week. Conversely, I'd look for teams with a minus ratio going into their last game who enjoyed a plus ratio in that game. Looking for these "minus" teams to revert to their negative t.o. ways after one good week. S.F. had a +4 ratio going into their Atlanta loss where they were minus-1. Would look for them to bounce back this week vs. Houston, especially off the bye. NYG was +6 going into the N.O. game, where they went minus-two. Look for them to bounce back vs. Cards. I'd also play on NYJ which went into the Bills game even on the season, but went minus-4 in that game. Conversely, Buffalo was minus-6 going into that NYJ game where they went plus +4. Would look for them to go minus this week vs. Carolina. Finally, St. Louis was a big minus-7 going into the Jax game and went +2. Would look for the Rams to cough the ball up more than the Colts this week.[/QUOTE] This is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Very sharp IMO. SF is rested and a good dog. Arizona has had a hard time going East.

Nice stuff here!

I am sure that this is just one tool in your arsenal. If a team has a great plus day but it's because they play a turnover-prone team then this is not as big of a deal. In the case of the Jets, they were a minus-4 mostly because of Sanchez. Is the Bills' secondary that good, or is it a rookie quarterback not reacting to the adjustments made on him? This is an important angle to consider, but wanted to point out that it is just one thing to look at.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;6804]I am sure that this is just one tool in your arsenal. If a team has a great plus day but it's because they play a turnover-prone team then this is not as big of a deal. In the case of the Jets, they were a minus-4 mostly because of Sanchez. Is the Bills' secondary that good, or is it a rookie quarterback not reacting to the adjustments made on him? This is an important angle to consider, but wanted to point out that it is just one thing to look at.[/QUOTE] Clearly, the Jets' minus T.O. number last week was squarely on Sanchez. But whatever the cause, it makes sense to me that a team or player is going to be overly sensitive to it the following week and try to fix it. In the Jets case, I suspect their game plan will be to run the ball more than normal to set up easier situations fo the rookie QB. In addition, Sanchez himself will certainly be thinking "no interception" on each drop back. (True, this might not be a good thing). The point is, a team who turned the ball over the week before, when they hadn't been doing so before that, is going to fix the problem. I don't think the Jets will be minus turnovers in this game, and that's all O.S. was asking for. And of course you're right when you note this is just one factor to consider in the handicapping process.

Plus Oakland's rushing defense is poor. Philadelphia gave up on the run LW for some unknown reason. Pittsburg's coach said after LW's game that TOs were killing them, and they would have to stop giving away the ball, and start taking the ball away. It's a good spot for Pittsburg vs the undefeated Minnesota team. Farve has played perfect ball so far.