Treatise on an NFL OT decision

The main problem with ALL of this math is it does not change the human aspect of the equation of having the balls to go for it. Other than Belli there are few coaches who wouldn't just take the points and then blame the defensive coordinator if they dont get the stop. Unfortunately, you will get blasted for doing the non-conventional, albeit right, thing.

[QUOTE=larryphelps;38843]good god u math geeks, whats the BOTTOM LINE?? is overtime a good bet or not..... appreciatte the disertation, but need CONCLUSIUONS BOB! thats thePOINT of computations .. not ambiguity[/QUOTE] Larry, the discussion is about what to do when already in OT. Unless there is an in-running line offered by a book AND the coaches make the right decision, there is no betting opportuniy here. Whether the game GOES into OT is a different problem. As Fezzik pointed out, anything at around -1200 or better to NOT GO into OT is a good bet.

[QUOTE=bkeiller;38860]The main problem with ALL of this math is it does not change the human aspect of the equation of having the balls to go for it. [/QUOTE] I think it is more a confluence of ignorance and stupidity on the part of the coaches. If coaches really understood the odds they would have no problem making the right decision. In some cases, football strategy has improved, e.g. now having the QB take a knee when you can run out the clock. Until the Pisarcik fumble exposed the strategic flaw, coaches were apparently too stupid to figure out that a handoff had no reward and a small, but non-zero risk.

[QUOTE=larryphelps;38843]good god u math geeks, whats the BOTTOM LINE?? is overtime a good bet or not..... appreciatte the disertation, but need CONCLUSIUONS BOB! thats thePOINT of computations .. not ambiguity[/QUOTE] FFS did you understand ANY part of this thread?