UCLA Plus 7.5 over California 1 Unit UCLA +7.5 over California 1 Unit
I played this game on Sunday night and wrestled with the idea of how exposed I wanted to be on the UCLA side. Being a University of Wash Alum during the Rick Neuheisel era and seeing him take the 2000 Huskies to a Rose Bowl win over Purdue, The UCLA HC is never short of a bit of gamesmanship and strategy when it comes to trying to get an edge.
No more was this more predominantly displayed when Neuheisel kept QB Kevin Prince on the sidelines to provide key time to nurse his way back from a knee injury. Every indications from the blogs I have read is that if the match up was big enough last week, Prince would have been in the game. Instead, Prince should be at 100% and following his performance last year (threw for 311 yards), I expect him to give the Cal defense similar match up problems as did Nevada's Kaepernick. While UCLA's pistol is not as polished, the gaping holes seen on national TV require more than a by week to fix.
On paper, this is a spot that Cal should be laying 10 with a bye and first look at the pistol offense three weeks prior vs Nevada, but the number has not budged since the open at 7.5 which should tell everyone something.
A point often overlooked when handicapping college outcomes is the role of special teams and FG kicking. UCLA has a real edge in special teams with Kai Forbath as their kicker. With college football being some much about momentum, UCLA manages to preserve this momentum in games b/c Forbath (9-9 on the year) can end almost any drive with points, thereby invigorating the defense to put pressure on opposing offenses.
Cal has owned this match up the last two years, however the last two years UCLA was very much a team without an identity. After winning three straight now (including victories over then ranked Houston and Texas, plus an improving Wash St side), UCLA is actually beginning to gel. Even though last week's tussle against Wash St. was only decided by 14 points. It is more about Wash St. being better than a lot of people thought and sandwiching them in the schedule between Texas and Cal.
The two biggest arguments for the Cal side are they are coming off a bye and they were able to see the pistol offense once before against Nevada. This should give Cal's defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, of NFL pedigree, a chance to more adequately prepare and have the Golden Bears ready. I have a different perspective and why I think those on Cal are potentially getting trapped.
Arizona's offense is starkly different than that of Cal. Arizona features QB Nick Goles and RB Nicholas Grigsby. Grigsby has struggled against even decent defenses and did against Cal as well during Cal-Arizona game. This allowed Pendergast to continue playing a quasi-dime package, thereby frustrating Goles and limited Arizona's offense to 10 points, 3 of which were the result of a 2 yard drive, and the other 7 was at the game's end.
UCLA has three viable running threats which can provide much more of play action passing set up for QB Kevin Prince. Couple this with a Bruin defense that is every bit as athletic to compete against Cal's QB Riley and NFL potential back Shane Vireen.
In conclusion, the Pac 10 is really going to be a conference that will see value on a number of underdogs this year during the conference match ups (dogs 3-1 last weekend, exception being Stanford who lead 21-3 in 1rst Quarter but still lost Straight up and ATS).
I have UCLA and Cal as a pick'em on a neutral field and give the gold bears between 5-6 points for home field depending the situation. Therefore the number of Cal -7.5 as too high as the Bruins may very well win this outright...
