UFC 102 Plays

UFC 102 Plays Here's what I like for tonight's card in Portland: Randy Couture (-180) over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira If you saw Nog's last fight vs. Mir, you saw how terrible he looked. He looked old and slow. He's been knocked down with a punch in all 3 of his UFC fights. This is not the Nog from the PRIDE days. He's also taken a beating in his training camp. Randy is going to bully him up against the cage and work in close and engage in dirty boxing for 15 minutes. Demian Maia (+155) over Nate Marquardt Nate the Great is a stronger guy and will try to keep it on the feet. While he is pretty good on the ground, Maia is the best in the world at 185 lbs on the ground. Maia by submission. Thiago Silva (+120) over Keith Jardine This is a coinflip here, but I think Thiago is just a bit more well-rounded. Thiago will try to do what Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander did, which is too bullrush Jardine. He doesn't react well to that. If you fight Jardine at range, his awkward style can confuse you. Silva by TKO R1. Jake Rosholt (+130) over Chris Leben This is a "when in doubt, go with the better wrestler" play. Rosholt is a 3-time NCAA wrestling champ at Oklahoma State. He looked bad against Nissen Osterneck in February, so there's value on him. Leben lost to Michael Bisping back in Oct 2008, but then had a positive steroid test and has had a 10-month layoff due to the suspension. Rosholt can outwrestle him and stay in top position and lay on him for 3 rounds. Rosholt by Dec. Brandon Vera (-200) over Krzysztof Soszynski Vera is a lot better at 205 (LHW) than he was at Heavy. Vera is the better wrestler and striker. Vera by 3rd Rd TKO. Aaron Simpson (+105) over Ed Herman Once again, take the better wrestler. Simpson is also the asst wrestling coach at Arizona State and highly accomplished. Another note on Herman and Leben, is that they are fighting in their hometowns. Lots of pressure on those two. Most UFC fighters who fight in their hometowns have lost lately. Simpson by Dec. Mike Russow (-280) over Justin McCully I don't lay these big prices very often in MMA, but McCully has been submitted by lesser guys on the ground than Russow. Russow on a 7-fight win streak. It goes to 8 here. Russow R2 Submission. Todd Duffee (-180) over Tim Hague Hague off an upset win over Pat Barry in May. Duffee is an American Top Team fighter and trains with a lot better competition. Duffee R1 TKO. Mark Munoz (-220) over Nick Catone Another former Oklahoma State Cowboy wrestling champion with Munoz. Munoz trains with WEC star Urijah Faber. Catone is a good wrestler, Munoz is a better wrestler. He's off a KO loss to Matt Hamill, but that was at 205 and this fight is at 185, which is Munoz's proper weight class. Munoz by R2 TKO. Evan Dunham (+130) over Marcus Aurelio Aurelio is a BJJ blackbelt, but he never uses it. Aurelio, a PRIDE veteran, was cut by UFC last year. He won two fights in smaller promotions and is now back. He has lost his last 5 fights that went to decision and this will be #6. Dunham is a good young prospect who trains with Xtreme Couture in Vegas. Dunham by Dec. One prediction, but no play: Gabriel Gonzaga (-360) over Chris Tuchscherer Chris is a big kid, but completely outclassed here.He's a good wrestler (2-time AA at D2 Minnesota State-Moorhead). He trains with Brock Lesnar. In reality he should probably be training the inexperienced but athletically freakish Lesnar. Chris has a 17-1 record against subpar competition. His only loss was against journeyman Travis Wiuff in the failed YAMMA promotion (1 card and it was one of the worst MMA shows I've ever seen). Wiuff is a guy who had 63 fights at the time at the age of 31 and is washed up and he beat this kid. Gonzaga should win however he wants to win here. I don't lay this price though in MMA. GL

awesome post shooter...good luck on your plays

Good Stuff

[QUOTE=Shooter;1343]Here's what I like for tonight's card in Portland: Randy Couture (-180) over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira If you saw Nog's last fight vs. Mir, you saw how terrible he looked. He looked old and slow. He's been knocked down with a punch in all 3 of his UFC fights. This is not the Nog from the PRIDE days. He's also taken a beating in his training camp. Randy is going to bully him up against the cage and work in close and engage in dirty boxing for 15 minutes.[/quote] Going just by Nog's last fight is no good. They guy had just spent several days in the hospital fighting a staph infection. Now, if you want to pick Couture because Nog looked lackluster two fights ago against Herring, that makes a little more sense to me. The bigger problem for Nog is that this is a bad stylistic match for him. Nog doesn't KO people and Couture isn't going to fall for cheap submissions and is a better wrestler. Still, I think there's more value here on Nogueira than Couture. [quote] Brandon Vera (-200) over Krzysztof Soszynski Vera is a lot better at 205 (LHW) than he was at Heavy. Vera is the better wrestler and striker. Vera by 3rd Rd TKO. [/quote] I agree with this pick, although I think Soszynski's wrestling is better than Vera's. The difference makers are that Vera is better at submissions (although Sos is no slouch) and has more accurate striking. I think he can pick apart Sos on their feet and neutralize him on the ground. [quote] Aaron Simpson (+105) over Ed Herman Once again, take the better wrestler. Simpson is also the asst wrestling coach at Arizona State and highly accomplished. Another note on Herman and Leben, is that they are fighting in their hometowns. Lots of pressure on those two. Most UFC fighters who fight in their hometowns have lost lately. Simpson by Dec.[/quote] You realize that this is also Couture's home town, even though he lives in Las Vegas these days? Does this angle apply to him as well? Honestly, unless you're crossing enough time zones for jet lag to kick in, I don't think this matters. [quote] One prediction, but no play: Gabriel Gonzaga (-360) over Chris Tuchscherer [/QUOTE] I think it's okay to lay the wood here.

npc, I know the Natural is a Portland (Gresham) native. However, I think this is a good matchup for Randy. The hometown won't affect him at all. Plus, they only sold like 10k tickets for this. They bought all the cheap seats and are having to move people down to the floor and lower levels. 70% full according to a buddy of mine that's there and just texted me. BTW, Gonzaga won by brutal death. Just crushed the guy. Simpson won Round 1. Herman had a limp at end of R1. He threw a head kick, Simpson grabbed the leg and took him down. Herman probably blew his ACL. They stopped the fight. Simpson wins by TKO.

9-2 on the night with 4 small plus-money winners. Sucks to lose the main event though, but the right decision was made. Not shocked at the result. Marquardt KOing Maia was the only surprise to me.