Uh-Oh Netto , Wind Chill 7 degrees in Pittsburgh!!

[QUOTE=IceTea;37947]And he also claims Jets will have great starting field position and how superior their return game is, which would also bode for more points.[/QUOTE] A run game is undeniably a benefit to the under. A team in the Jets situation will want to control time of possession and control field position. This can/will shorten the game considerably. Watching their last two games at the Colts and Pats, this was exactly how they played with no reason to believe the philosophy will shift now. My angle on the beneficial starting field position is it will keep the Pittsburgh defense honest and limit their aggressiveness. This keeps the game in front of them and less big plays on both sides as a result. This is beneficial to the under as both the colts and pats games were played in a way that should have had them both see the under. Only a series of very bizarre plays at the end of NE/Jets helped that game finish over...

[QUOTE=johnnetto;37961]A run game is undeniably a benefit to the under. ...[/QUOTE] Disagree with this statement. Statistically teams that rush for a high average per attempt go over the total a greater percentage of the time. A friend of mine runs a site called The Totaller (he has been quite successful over the last ten years) and his model says that the number one determiner of a teams point total is their ability to rush. Look at how many of the Jets totals went over this year when their run game was working. Not sure how you can query this on database but I am confident it gets backed up.

[QUOTE=johnnetto;37961]A run game is undeniably a benefit to the under. A team in the Jets situation will want to control time of possession and control field position. This can/will shorten the game considerably. Watching their last two games at the Colts and Pats, this was exactly how they played with no reason to believe the philosophy will shift now. My angle on the beneficial starting field position is it will keep the Pittsburgh defense honest and limit their aggressiveness. This keeps the game in front of them and less big plays on both sides as a result. This is beneficial to the under as both the colts and pats games were played in a way that should have had them both see the under. Only a series of very bizarre plays at the end of NE/Jets helped that game finish over...[/QUOTE] But this total is significantly lower than that one. You said Jets win 20-13, with a chance the Steelers only score 9. So I have to wonder why you think Pit is only scoring between 9 and 13, when the lowest they have scored all year is 17, and that was without Heath Miller who is one of Bens favorite targets, who led the Steelers in receptions and TDs last weekend vs. Baltimore? The Steelers average 27 ppg at home this year. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the league this year. More 20+ gainers than both the Colts and Pats. Meanwhile, the Jets have not held anyone on the road all year to less than 14 points, and the only team they held to 14 was the Bills. It just baffles me why you think the Steelers could score just 9 points? Because the Jets will run the ball? And what do you think will happen when the Steelers stuff the run? The Jets know the weakness of the Steelers is their secondary, they will be throwing to Holmes and Edwards, and they will put up points. The Steelers will as well. I think you are underestimating what the Steelers offense will do if you think they get 9 to 13 points max.

[QUOTE=IceTea;37968]But this total is significantly lower than that one. You said Jets win 20-13, with a chance the Steelers only score 9. So I have to wonder why you think Pit is only scoring between 9 and 13, when the lowest they have scored all year is 17, and that was without Heath Miller who is one of Bens favorite targets, who led the Steelers in receptions and TDs last weekend vs. Baltimore? The Steelers average 27 ppg at home this year. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the league this year. More 20+ gainers than both the Colts and Pats. Meanwhile, the Jets have not held anyone on the road all year to less than 14 points, and the only team they held to 14 was the Bills. It just baffles me why you think the Steelers could score just 9 points? Because the Jets will run the ball? And what do you think will happen when the Steelers stuff the run? The Jets know the weakness of the Steelers is their secondary, they will be throwing to Holmes and Edwards, and they will put up points. The Steelers will as well. I think you are underestimating what the Steelers offense will do if you think they get 9 to 13 points max.[/QUOTE] Agree and if you look at the first game the Jets accumulated 46 of their 106 rushing yards on their second drive of the game. After that they rushed for 60 yards on 20 attempts for only 3 yards per rush. This from guard Matt Slausen of the Jets: “I feel like we have a better offensive line,” Slauson said. “We have a better running game. As far as our passing game, we have a lot more playmakers. We can spread the ball out more..." That also tells me they may very well try and spread the ball with all their receivers, which could lead to a higher scoring game either because they are successful or because this creates more interceptions and possible points for Pittsburgh.

[QUOTE=IceTea;37968]But this total is significantly lower than that one. You said Jets win 20-13, with a chance the Steelers only score 9. So I have to wonder why you think Pit is only scoring between 9 and 13, when the lowest they have scored all year is 17, and that was without Heath Miller who is one of Bens favorite targets, who led the Steelers in receptions and TDs last weekend vs. Baltimore? The Steelers average 27 ppg at home this year. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the league this year. More 20+ gainers than both the Colts and Pats. Meanwhile, the Jets have not held anyone on the road all year to less than 14 points, and the only team they held to 14 was the Bills. It just baffles me why you think the Steelers could score just 9 points? Because the Jets will run the ball? And what do you think will happen when the Steelers stuff the run? The Jets know the weakness of the Steelers is their secondary, they will be throwing to Holmes and Edwards, and they will put up points. The Steelers will as well. I think you are underestimating what the Steelers offense will do if you think they get 9 to 13 points max.[/QUOTE] Thank you Ice Tea for your feedback. If I may rephrase my comment about running the game being an edge for the under. In the case of an underdog like the Jets, headed into a hostile environment like Pittsburgh, against a team that likes to put pressure on a QB, that a run game can go a long way in helping the underdog control momentum and time of possession, thereby putting the under in a good place to hit. Generally speaking I would not make the case that a strong run game helps the under categorically. So speaking within the context of this Jets-Steelers matchup, if the Jets can run the ball for 4 yards a carry, and they control field position through their edge in special teams, then I like my chances with the under. I think both teams have strong enough defenses and tackle well enough that big plays either way from either offense will be hard to come by. In terms of my reasons for the Steelers score, just like I tell people when I'm trading the markets, not everything can be quantified. There is a very qualitative aspect to being a successful trader/handicapper. Part of that is making calls which may set a precendent. For me I am projecting a similar defensive effort from the Jets as we saw against New England, (which is much more explosive than Pittsburgh) and against Indy. The Jets held New England to 14 points until a late TD by NE cut the lead from 28-14 to 28-21, but through nearly 3 quarters, the Pats only had 11 points and were visibly frustrated. Statistically everything you say makes sense, but from my perspective I see the Steelers seeing the same sort of difficulty in scoring against a defense that put together a respectable body of work during the regular season, but had gotten materially better in the postseason. Again, this is my perspective and I'm sharing it here. This is nothing personal against anyone. Pitt may win 40-3 and I'll lose a lot of money...but it won't be the first time I'll be wrong and it won't be the last...Good luck...

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;37976]Agree and if you look at the first game the Jets accumulated 46 of their 106 rushing yards on their second drive of the game. After that they rushed for 60 yards on 20 attempts for only 3 yards per rush. This from guard Matt Slausen of the Jets: “I feel like we have a better offensive line,” Slauson said. “We have a better running game. As far as our passing game, we have a lot more playmakers. We can spread the ball out more..." That also tells me they may very well try and spread the ball with all their receivers, which could lead to a higher scoring game either because they are successful or because this creates more interceptions and possible points for Pittsburgh.[/QUOTE] I don't read anything into this. I'm not saying Rex Ryan won't take shots down the field, in fact it's essential the Jets do, but this to me is more of a Red herring than anything insightful as to what the Jets will build their game plan around...

[QUOTE=johnnetto;37994]Thank you Ice Tea for your feedback. If I may rephrase my comment about running the game being an edge for the under. In the case of an underdog like the Jets, headed into a hostile environment like Pittsburgh, against a team that likes to put pressure on a QB, that a run game can go a long way in helping the underdog control momentum and time of possession, thereby putting the under in a good place to hit. Generally speaking I would not make the case that a strong run game helps the under categorically. So speaking within the context of this Jets-Steelers matchup, if the Jets can run the ball for 4 yards a carry, and they control field position through their edge in special teams, then I like my chances with the under. I think both teams have strong enough defenses and tackle well enough that big plays either way from either offense will be hard to come by. In terms of my reasons for the Steelers score, just like I tell people when I'm trading the markets, not everything can be quantified. There is a very qualitative aspect to being a successful trader/handicapper. Part of that is making calls which may set a precendent. For me I am projecting a similar defensive effort from the Jets as we saw against New England, (which is much more explosive than Pittsburgh) and against Indy. The Jets held New England to 14 points until a late TD by NE cut the lead from 28-14 to 28-21, but through nearly 3 quarters, the Pats only had 11 points and were visibly frustrated. Statistically everything you say makes sense, but from my perspective I see the Steelers seeing the same sort of difficulty in scoring against a defense that put together a respectable body of work during the regular season, but had gotten materially better in the postseason. Again, this is my perspective and I'm sharing it here. This is nothing personal against anyone. Pitt may win 40-3 and I'll lose a lot of money...but it won't be the first time I'll be wrong and it won't be the last...Good luck...[/QUOTE] First, good luck to you. Second, allow me to respond: I don't think the Jets are heading into Pittsburgh with the attitude of "we are underdogs and need to control momentum so we'll run the ball". Did you see how much they threw the ball in Indy? I don't think they will put the reins on Sanchez, that's the only why they will move the ball. That's a big "if" you have when you say "if the Jets can run the ball for 4 yards a carry", because they didn't run for 4 in the first game and the Steelers are tops in rushing defense. The Steelers know to win the game they must make Sanchez beat them. They truly believe he won't be able to. I think the only way the Jets get 4 ypc is if they break one really long run. I think that 95% of their runs will average much less than 4 and the Jets will realize they need Sanchez to take the top off the defense. Also, the Steelers offense is the one which is far more explosive than the short passing offense of the Patriots. They had more passes of 20+ and 40+ than did the Patriots, and Ben didn't even play 4 games! You witnessed it last week against the Ravens. How often is Brady going deep downfield? Compare that to Ben. I think you are definitely wrong on that assumption. Even in that first game, without a big key in that offense (Heath Miller) the Steelers were 10 yards away with plenty of time left and 4 downs to score a go ahead TD and post 24 points. Of course, the guy replacing Heath missed 2 passes from Ben and they didn't get the 24 points. Either way, should be a great game and one of us will be right.

[QUOTE=bkeiller;37945]I missed that one. I thought Fezz was joking when he said "so says my proprietary database". Respect your stuff Netto but am curious about one thing. You say your point was that the Jets can move the ball against Pitt but doesn't that bode well for points. When teams can rush against an opponent it usually means scoring and thus an over.[/QUOTE] It might mean an over for their team total, but not for the game. When teams can run the ball, they will run the ball more often and eat up more clock and thus have less plays per game which is good for the under. Teams that run the ball well, usually win the game and usually control the game, so of course they will score more than normal, but the other team (assuming they are not able to run) will hardly score any points at all. If John is right and the Jets can run while the Steelers can't (dubious imo), the score probably will be something like he predicts with NYJ and under cashing.

[QUOTE=Rumpelstiltskin;38043]It might mean an over for their team total, but not for the game. When teams can run the ball, they will run the ball more often and eat up more clock and thus have less plays per game which is good for the under. Teams that run the ball well, usually win the game and usually control the game, so of course they will score more than normal, but the other team (assuming they are not able to run) will hardly score any points at all. If John is right and the Jets can run while the Steelers can't (dubious imo), the score probably will be something like he predicts with NYJ and under cashing.[/QUOTE] Thanks Rumpel...You nailed exactly what I was trying to convey...

4' in places now - have not bet the game, have some futures riding- but remember far easier stuff bet to bet than these games.... dont go wild