UIGA Killed the Dr. Bob Star

UIGA Killed the Dr. Bob Star Someone please forward this to the good doctor: I have complete respect for Dr. Bob and his abilities. The man has great handicapping skills, and has done great over the last 20 years. However, his understanding of the sports betting marketplace, and efficiency level is lacking. Look no further to Bob always pointing to his '20 year' track record of 55-56% being the 'key factor' in evaluating his prowess. Without realizing how much more difficult it has become. From 1999-2005 Bob rolled along, he improved his models, the market got more efficient, and he hit his 'usual' 55.3%, with a bad 51% year in 2002, a great 58% year in 2005 (but note 2002-2004 were all worse than the 1999-2001 years). Post 2006, the WALL has been hit. 52.3%. 50.3%. 53.5%. 54.1%. This year he is right around 53% and correctly bitching up a storm about bad variance, bad bounces, etc. While I AGREE he has been very unlucky, a 5 year record of BELOW 53%, after a 15 year record of 56% is very interesting when forecasting how he will do THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. I don't think a rationale logical answer would be 'somewhere in between', since the market is only going to get more and more effeicient, and just how much better is Dr. Bob going to get at this? Is he going to suddenly hire on key analysts and researchers like RAS to pound local papers, and comb over injury reports? If not, I can only forecast him to DECLINE to below 52.9%, and that is beyond problematic as he assures all "YOU WILL WIN!!", if you follow him..............I think this is beyond Pollyanna, as those following him sans a 1/2 point are almost certain to lose IMO given the clear 5 year data, and the market getting harder and harder. It is a fascinating study to handicap the handicapper as to how he will do. My advice? Toss the NFL. The most recent 5 year results are lousy, and if he just devoted all that time to college football he could start playing more college football totals, where the real soft numbers are. As an aside, I DO get a kick still out of his and others "THIS game has a 61% chance to cover, THIS one a 57% chance, etc". NEVER MIND that the actual results on all games ALWAYS underperform the model. Obviously, one has to tweak the model and assume that if your successful model makes a game '10' and the market deals it 7, the right answer is very, very likely somewhere between, and late in the week, it is likely closer to 7!

I think this is a very good post with an excellent summary of the history of Dr. Bob and the current results and with some thoughts of how the future might be. I do bet Dr. Bob so it is very useful to me but I think it applies generally. During the years 2006-2008 I was very successful with Dr. Bob even in those down or underperforming years. If you used the marketplace numbers as your barometer Dr. Bob was so popular that his numbers would move 1.5 pts from his release number. If the play was good, your job had to be to bet the "the last good number" on him. However, when the play pushed back which it inevitably did my job became "get the last good number against Dr. Bob". The market acted as a selection process for what plays Dr. Bob had which were good and which were bad. These actually were pretty good years for me for Dr. Bob because of betting strong numbers and games actually falling in the middle. The problem now is for Dr. Bob the bettors or his customers don't trust his selections enough that very few of the plays go 1.5 pts from release. In fact, we know his selections are somewhat weak because his release number---and better in many instances---appear in the market after his selection---although not right away---it is just bad work to "bet it and forget it" with Dr. Bob. Although there are some who probably follow a model of betting Dr. Bob at reduced juice to "optimize" their results (like I do) I would have to be of the opinion that Dr. Bob is a handicapper not worth betting on release but if you like his plays pick your best number near game time and betting him. Obviously, you will miss a few great ones and bet at a worse number than release but I have a pretty good idea you'll pat yourself on the back for the several weak selections he's obviously throwing in the mix that one can bet at a better number if you're just determined to get down on his plays. Right now I am in the middle. I will bet at reduced juice. But I know my night has just begun as I fix all of the problems I have by betting at the number to begin with for several plays.

I play some of Dr. Bob's plays and have done ok. One thing I do do is if his plays are losing at half time and there is good value in his play I play his play at half time also. Just my 2 cents. Cool

What do you expect him to say. He's under .500 in the NFL the last 5 years. Will never happen. He will hold on to that 20 year record as long as he can. Just like one year when he was losing so bad he stopped counting juice because those numbers varied so much. The next year when he was winning he counted juice again. It's all a marketing spin. Doesn't make him dishonest and he's a good handicapper who has taught me a lot but he does spin things too much. It's amazing how unlucky he can be every year in the NFL.

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;39316]Doesn't make him dishonest [/QUOTE] If he stops counting juice when losing and then counting it again when he's hitting 53-54%, I'd say that does make him dishonest. If he doesn't say his 5 yr record is losing but says his 15 yr record is winning, that does not make him dishonest, but it should make people look at "what he's done for me lately"... Afterall, as a bettor, a winning track record is important, but if he's had consecutive mediocre seasons that don't justify paying for the service, why would I pay for next season? A winning track record that was winning several years ago and still winning last year WILL make me pay for next season.

I think he was ahead of the game, but the game caught up. And I, too, hate the spin. He puts out strong opions, but they aren't his picks. But if they are hitting, for that year, you will definitely see the percentage. Then he'll spin about how well his 2 stars are when his 3 stars are sucking a tail pipe. The whole tout business is ridiculous with the GOM's and GOY's and gold picks, platinum picks and diamond picks from the same scamdicapper. The 20 year investment angle is a joke. The first thing I thought when I saw that was "wow, he doesn't want anyone to know how bad he's been over the last few years" I really hate to see Dr. Bob's spin. I have a lot of respect for him. I just wish all handicappers would say "here is my record. on a one year basis, three year basis and five year basis. this is how much you'll have to bet per game in order to make buying my picks profitable based on my record over the last 5 years."

He pointed out he wasn't counting juice so he was honest but not easily spelling it out for people. But is always quick to sell out things when he is winning. Just be consistent.

My ridiculous conversation with a fellow actuary Bob picked 55.5% for 20 years Then he picked 52.8% for 5 years. What will he hit the next 3 years? Fez: 52.4% Other Actuary: He hit 58% 6 years ago! 54%. Good Grief. I just don't understand this....... We will have a side bet on EVERY season of Bob going forward, ov/un 53.5%. I expect to make a lot of money........

I am going over 53.5 for BoB next year. 10k Fezz. You in?

I was ahead of the game too. Game caught up. Now you reinvent or find something else to do.