The Value of Picks Suppose a handicapper releases a 53.44% pick. That gives a 2% edge at -110. If you get a half point worse then it is roughly breakeven in football or basketball. Winning handicappers like Fezzik anticipate line movement and affect lines, so you had better move fast.
With a $10K Kelly-equivalent bank, you should bet around $200 with a 2% edge. Then your EV is $4. But risky money is worth only half as much as safe money. Therefore the pick is worth only around $2 to you.
Good picks are worth a lot more than mediocre picks. For example, a 53% pick is worth less than $1. But a 55% pick is worth $15 and a 60% pick is worth more than $100. You can appreciate why pros shop their best picks hard. You can also appreciate why it helps to have a $100K bank.
[left]Probability[/left][center]EV at -110[/center] [right]Approx. Value to $10K Bank[/right]
0.53 [center]1.3%[/center] [right]$0.85 [/right]
0.54 [center]3.4%[/center] [right]$5.78 [/right]
0.55 [center]5.5%[/center] [right]$15.13 [/right]
0.56 [center]7.6%[/center] [right]$28.88 [/right]
0.57 [center]9.7%[/center] [right]$47.05 [/right]
0.58 [center]11.8][/center] [right]$69.62 [/right]
0.59 [center]13.9%[/center] [right]$96.61 [/right]
0.6 [center]16.0%[/center] [right]$128.00[/right]
