Warning: Ignore Fezzik if Chicago Covers +7

Warning: Ignore Fezzik if Chicago Covers +7 Tournament strategy is different from cash strategy. Fezzik is trying to maximize his probability of winning the Hilton contest, not picking to win money. If Chicago covers +7 tonight, then Fezzik will be half a game behind the leader (Big E.). In this case he needs variance next week. Picking the same games as the leader will doom Fezzik to second place. If the leader wins all his games then he remains the leader, and there is nothing anybody can do. The only chance of making up ground occurs if the leader loses some games. This effect is important. This week, nine out of the top ten contestants picked HOU, around half of them picked NYG, NYJ, and WAS, and almost nobody went against these picks. Interestingly these selections went 1-3. The resulting two-game swing would have been enough to put any of the top ten in the lead. Presuming the leader will lose some games, competitors need to be opposite those games. Fezzik must try to choose opposite the leader, even if he knows the picks hit only 40%. It is better to have a 40% chance of winning than matching the leader and abandoning any chance. So be particularly careful about following Fezzik this week!

[QUOTE=KimLee;13359]Tournament strategy is different from cash strategy. Fezzik is trying to maximize his probability of winning the Hilton contest, not picking to win money. If Chicago covers +7 tonight, then Fezzik will be half a game behind the leader (Big E.). In this case he needs variance next week. Picking the same games as the leader will doom Fezzik to second place. If the leader wins all his games then he remains the leader, and there is nothing anybody can do. The only chance of making up ground occurs if the leader loses some games. This effect is important. This week, nine out of the top ten contestants picked HOU, around half of them picked NYG, NYJ, and WAS, and almost nobody went against these picks. Interestingly these selections went 1-3. The resulting two-game swing would have been enough to put any of the top ten in the lead. Presuming the leader will lose some games, competitors need to be opposite those games. Fezzik must try to choose opposite the leader, even if he knows the picks hit only 40%. It is better to have a 40% chance of winning than matching the leader and abandoning any chance. So be particularly careful about following Fezzik this week![/QUOTE] actually they went 2-2 didnt they..and doies this change the point of ur post?

i know my son, Eddie Money went 2-3 this week which is about what some others had. going to be a tough race for the last week. I'm struggling to get into the top 20 to cash.

Fezzik is down by 1/2 game, so he needs to pick up 1 game and hold off the others. A tough place to be, but Fezzik is up to it.

[QUOTE=commish;13363]actually they went 2-2 didnt they..and doies this change the point of ur post?[/QUOTE] Sorry, I was originally considering NYG and WAS, which went 0-2. Let me simplify this. Suppose you are behind by 4.5 games going into the last week. Then you need the leader to go 0-5 while you go 5-0. It's unlikely, but possible. If you go opposite the leader then you have a small chance. Otherwise you need the leader to bomb and you also need to pick perfect selections yourself for an even smaller chance. It will be interesting to see how many people change strategy next week compared to this week: BIG E . 47 27 1 SEA HOU DEN NYJ CHI FEZZIK . 47 26 2 OAK HOU NYG ARI SF EDDIE MONEY . 46 28 1 GB HOU NYG TB WAS RICKJSPORTS PLAYS.COM 46 28 1 BUF HOU CAR BAL WAS SPORTSMEMO TIM . 46 26 3 HOU NYG PIT NYJ WAS MISTER P. . 45 26 4 BUF JAX BAL DEN NYJ PUT THE MONEY IN THE BAG 45 27 3 OAK HOU NYG NE WAS TAKE OUT THE TRASH 45 27 3 OAK HOU NYG NE WAS RUSSIAN 2 . 45 30 0 OAK HOU NYG ARI SF MIKE BOYD 1 . 45 28 2 GB HOU NO JAX DAL MR.SQUINTS . 44 28 3 TB JAX BAL DEN NYJ VEGAS JOYRIDE . 44 30 1 TEN HOU JAX BAL DEN SLICK 50 . 44 29 2 BUF TB STL DET WAS CONTINENTAL SPORTS SERVICE 44 28 3 GB KC HOU JAX NYJ BIG LIB . 44 29 2 SD MIA PIT PHI IND SEVEN YEAR ITCH 44 28 3 ATL MIA NYG PIT SF RONIN . 44 30 1 OAK ATL NYG PIT DEN GO BUST BOOKIES 44 29 2 SD OAK KC WAS MIN KILLER 1 . 44 28 3 CLE NE ARI SF NYJ.

[QUOTE=KimLee;13393]Sorry, I was originally considering NYG and WAS, which went 0-2. Let me simplify this. Suppose you are behind by 4.5 games going into the last week. Then you need the leader to go 0-5 while you go 5-0. It's unlikely, but possible. If you go opposite the leader then you have a small chance. Otherwise you need the leader to bomb and you also need to pick perfect selections yourself for an even smaller chance. It will be interesting to see how many people change strategy next week compared to this week: BIG E . 47 27 1 SEA HOU DEN NYJ CHI FEZZIK . 47 26 2 OAK HOU NYG ARI SF EDDIE MONEY . 46 28 1 GB HOU NYG TB WAS RICKJSPORTS PLAYS.COM 46 28 1 BUF HOU CAR BAL WAS SPORTSMEMO TIM . 46 26 3 HOU NYG PIT NYJ WAS MISTER P. . 45 26 4 BUF JAX BAL DEN NYJ PUT THE MONEY IN THE BAG 45 27 3 OAK HOU NYG NE WAS TAKE OUT THE TRASH 45 27 3 OAK HOU NYG NE WAS RUSSIAN 2 . 45 30 0 OAK HOU NYG ARI SF MIKE BOYD 1 . 45 28 2 GB HOU NO JAX DAL MR.SQUINTS . 44 28 3 TB JAX BAL DEN NYJ VEGAS JOYRIDE . 44 30 1 TEN HOU JAX BAL DEN SLICK 50 . 44 29 2 BUF TB STL DET WAS CONTINENTAL SPORTS SERVICE 44 28 3 GB KC HOU JAX NYJ BIG LIB . 44 29 2 SD MIA PIT PHI IND SEVEN YEAR ITCH 44 28 3 ATL MIA NYG PIT SF RONIN . 44 30 1 OAK ATL NYG PIT DEN GO BUST BOOKIES 44 29 2 SD OAK KC WAS MIN KILLER 1 . 44 28 3 CLE NE ARI SF NYJ.[/QUOTE] I think it gets more convoluted this week because of so many meaningless games. Your chance of picking opposite the guy ahead of you are tougher because these games can be interpreted differently the last week.

A number of games will be well off of the market come Saturday morning due to the week 17 effect. It is from these games that you can pick and choose which to go contrary if you need swing. I have observed over the years that a good pct of those who are in a cash position after week 16 are very reluctant to gamble and make aggressive picks. With a payscale that escalates at a decent rate this is usually the wrong move.

By my understanding Fezzik has a 1/2 point lead in the contest correct? Two ties to One tie for Big E. 48 points to 47 1/2. Isn't that correct?

[QUOTE=Bleonard;13397]Fezzik has a 1/2 point lead in the contest correct?[/QUOTE] No. Last week Fezzik was leading by a half point. But Fezzik went 3-2 while Big E. took a half point lead by going 4-1. [I]BIG E . 47 27 1 SEA HOU DEN NYJ [B]CHI[/B] FEZZIK . 47 26 2 OAK HOU NYG ARI SF [/I]

I will CLEARLY post which picks to bet Sat AM here Check back 11am here..