Week 11 Thread

The last month has left me with a very firm conclusion Winning betting, still isn't that difficult. Winning more than 53.5% ON WIDELY AVAILABLE selections, is almost impossible in major sports. Yes, I have gotten RIDICULOUSLY unlucky the last 3 weeks, but I likely got lucky the first few weeks of the season. The 'right' way to play NE/indy Philly/WASH, and Atl/Rams was to lay the -3 on all the favorites when the lines were 3.1 and and clearly leaking up. THEN to come over the top with the other teams +3.5 or +4 reduced vig. EVERYONE I know who has accumulated small fortunes betting does exactly this (sometimes just playing 1 or the 2 sides, sometimes doing both) And your edge is decent, your risk minimal if you play both sides, and you have winning season after season after season.........in fact, this is pretty much the way I've bet for the last 10 years. But the mind plays tricks with you. When you know more than almost everyone else, and you are winning consistently you can convince yourself that you beat widely available lines. And have you put out GodAwful stupid plays like NE -4 since your reseach shows the Colts 0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS losing by an average of 8-31 in temps below 40. BUT.....the game was in 37 degrees, not 14. So the trend barely qualified. And even if it did....... The WRONG way is to fool yourself (like I did this week) that a certain NFL side is the 'right' side, and you can play it at any number, and have a good wager. More and more I'm on the phone with a helper, and when asked about a game like MNF Saying "Denver, they are +10 -105? OMG. BET WHATEVER THEY WILL LET YOU" "They are +10 -114? Garbage! No bet" Guess what? 53% bets kick but -105, but they aren't very good at -110.

More 4 unit plays early in the year, less late in the season.

its called value hunting.

I actually had been looking at that Atl/RAMS game for 3 weeks LOVED the game. Was 100% convinced the line should be close to pk'm. I'm an idiot......I'm the one in my meetings that keeps chastising everyone saying 'THE LINES ARE BASICALLY RIGHT!" on all the games.......

One of my favorite all time quotes about bettors... by Nick B "Sharps have been slow to react because of their own overconfidence. Look, it takes a certain amount of swagger and confidence to be a sports gambler in the first place. You have to think you're smarter than everyone else or you wouldn't be betting. If you have several seasons where you win big, the confidence grows even bigger! Your're on top of the world, and start to believe you can do no wrong." ----Nick B.

I should have said this before the games, but the one line that stood out to me was TB +3.5. Sure in hindsight, it's easier to bring it up, but what were the lines folks thinking? Two teams going in very different directions. +3.5 was very bizarre to me.

What direction were the 49ers going in before today's game?

TB goes in 6-3 with its three losses coming to 3 of the top 6 or 7 teams in the game (Pittsburgh, NO, ATL). They have not lost a game all year to an average team. TB had a legit chance to make the playoffs for the first time in forever and SF is a must win for that to happen. (Gotta win the average teams since you are not elite) SF goes in 3-6 with losses to Seattle, NO, KC, ATL, Philadelphia, and Carolina. Sure NO, ATL, and Phily are elite, but the losses to Seattle and Carolina are to average or bad teams. (KC is kind of in the middle). Thus SF is 3-3 or 3-2 against average teams. SF is going no where and has nothing to play for. Not sure how TB gets 3.5 with that in mind. I was thinking TB would be -2 or so and I rarely think NFL lines are off more than a point. Obviously I'm missing something here as lines are never off that much, but this in my mind is the very rare off line that is out there.

I inferred "going in different directions" to mean recent history only as opposed to the entire season to date.

[QUOTE=sean1;33305]I should have said this before the games, but the one line that stood out to me was TB +3.5. Sure in hindsight, it's easier to bring it up, but what were the lines folks thinking? Two teams going in very different directions. +3.5 was very bizarre to me.[/QUOTE] This game stood out to me also amd since I thought the wrong team was favored, I thought it was a BIG trap. Still wound up taking it in my Hilton Contest (4-1), and bet it heavy. Nice being right for a change.