[QUOTE=sean1;33307]TB goes in 6-3 with its three losses coming to 3 of the top 6 or 7 teams in the game (Pittsburgh, NO, ATL). They have not lost a game all year to an average team. TB had a legit chance to make the playoffs for the first time in forever and SF is a must win for that to happen. (Gotta win the average teams since you are not elite)
SF goes in 3-6 with losses to Seattle, NO, KC, ATL, Philadelphia, and Carolina. Sure NO, ATL, and Phily are elite, but the losses to Seattle and Carolina are to average or bad teams. (KC is kind of in the middle). Thus SF is 3-3 or 3-2 against average teams. SF is going no where and has nothing to play for.
Not sure how TB gets 3.5 with that in mind. I was thinking TB would be -2 or so and I rarely think NFL lines are off more than a point.
Obviously I'm missing something here as lines are never off that much, but this in my mind is the very rare off line that is out there.[/QUOTE]
I didn't bet the game (well I had the over which was clearly the wrong side) but the number probably should have been around -2 or -2.5 for SF. The losses you point out for SF were road losses. This team has played much better at home than on the road. They had NO defeated at home, fell behind Phil early and got close in the end, defeated Oakland and the Rams. They were finally moving the ball and not turning it over with Troy Smith at qb, which is why the line stood where it did, IMO. TB has terrible numbers on defense but they seem to be playing better and their offense has really improved with Blount running the ball and they are hitting big plays over the top.
Like you said Sean, in hindsight, pretty easy but I think you could make an argument for TB covering without all things going right versus SF covering without all things going right. There was room for error on the TB side, not on the SF side.
