Week 16 Round Robin Parlays

Week 16 Round Robin Parlays Set One: 8 teams, set into 56 3-team parlays. $5.00 cost basis. SD ML + 135 OAK + 3.5 Jax +8 BAL + 3.5( bought 1 point) PHI -6 Rams + 14 Jets + 6.5( bought 1 point) WAS +7( bought .5) spend 280 to win 1558 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Set Two: SD ML + 135 Oak + 3 Mia ML -145 Jax + 8 PHI -5( bought down 2 points) STL + 14 Indy -2.5( bought down 3 points) Was + 7 spend 280 to win 1498. $5.00 cost basis. -------------------------------------------------------------- Set three: 4-team Parlay. $100 cost. SD ML + 135 Bal + 3.5( bought 1 point) IND -2.5( bought down 3 points) WAS +7 Spend 100 to win 976. Notes: Trying to "middle" the NYJ/IND game. SD better taking ML instead of the + 3 @ -125 juice. I honestly think the Bolts are gonna win anyway thus puting the $$$ where my mouth is. MIA - don't wanna lay 3 w/ HOU. The last Parlay: 1st game is Xmas - Friday - all the next are Sunday games: 2nd game is 10 PM ( EST) 3rd game is 1 PM 4th game is 5:20 PM. Each game I can hedge or opt out somehow at halftime if things look ugly, thus recouping the total cost of the $100 parlay. If things progress reasonably, I can let things ride. If I have three winners going into the last game, I can do a hedge of some type, thus locking up some $$$. For example, I can bet $300 DAL ML to lock up no less than $676, with the possibility of winning the ML bet as well. Or spending $200 on DAL -4 to win the $100, with same chance to win both bets. Any comments are msot welcome. Any better methods are most appreciated. I know that there HAS TO BE far better bettors out there - I am the worlds worst bettor by far. Thanx Good luck all Iron Man/Subby

[QUOTE=Iron Man/Subby;13047] BAL + 3.5( bought 1 point) FINE Jets + 6.5( bought 1 point) FINE WAS +7( bought .5) FINE PHI -5( bought down 2 points) WTF? Indy -2.5( bought down 3 points) WTF? Bal + 3.5( bought 1 point) FINE IND -2.5( bought down 3 points) WTF? SD better taking ML instead of the + 3 @ -125 juice. FINE I am the worlds worst bettor by far. [/QUOTE] You are smart enough to buy through the "3" and compare moneyline value to the pointspread. I don't quarrel with buying the "7". I can also condone buying the "4" if it allows you to buy through the "3" at ten cents per half point. But what are you doing buying the "5"? Have you ever seen an NFL game land on 5?! Parlays can be good if you get better than -110, but you don't seem to get this, e.g., 6.5:1. If you do parlays then round robins are easier than clicking in all the bets. But they are still riskier than straight bets. Parlay results obscure your handicapping. You might go 0-8 for sixteen weeks and then go 8-0. Then you win money despite being a terrible handicapper. In conclusion, buy on or off the "3" and "7" only. Summon the discipline to make straight bets only (pointspread, moneyline, even halftimes or team totals) for one whole NFL season. Then you will know whether you can beat it. Straight bets offer flexibility to shop numbers. Parlays should be used only if they offer superior odds, if you want to increase risk for bonus hustling, or if there is positive correlation. Otherwise parlays are just gambling, and we don't approve of that around here. :)

You didn't reply to my earlier attempt to help you, and didn't absorb my lesson about teasers. [url]https://www.lvasportsboards.com/showthread.php?t=1997[/url]

[QUOTE=KimLee;13088]Jets + 6.5( bought 1 point) FINE[/QUOTE] No way buying up from +5.5 to +6.5 at 10c a half point is +EV.

[QUOTE=skrtelfan;13097]No way buying up from +5.5 to +6.5 at 10c a half point is +EV.[/QUOTE] You are right. I misread it as -6.5. I don't want to embarrass the OP, but that line opened at +7. Betting +6.5 -130 when +7 -104 was available at Pinnacle is questionable.

[QUOTE=KimLee;13096]You didn't reply to my earlier attempt to help you, and didn't absorb my lesson about teasers. [url]https://www.lvasportsboards.com/showthread.php?t=1997[/url][/QUOTE] Sorry I did not reply. I do thank you and sincerely appreciate your efforts. I did stop teasing through zero - and I stopped teasers for now anyway. Am trying to learn sas much as possible. Long curve ahead. IMSM