Week 2 "over" Barrage continues in the NFL 10-5 to the 'over'

Week 2 "over" Barrage continues in the NFL 10-5 to the 'over' Weeks 1 and 2 are traditionally lower scoring. If we get 2 weeks like this, an ez conclusion for me is that the game has changed, the rules have handcuffed the pass defenses, and the scoring is going to be way up all year long............ Remarkably, the old fossil coaches in the NFL DO continue to kick fgs on 4th and 1 insided the opponents 10........mind boggling.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;46430]Remarkably, the old fossil coaches in the NFL DO continue to kick fgs on 4th and 1 insided the opponents 10........mind boggling.[/QUOTE] lol "gotta come away with points". It is hard to believe that in a $10b industry or whatever it is, coaches are still allowed to damage their team's chances of winning with moves like this.

Week 2 overs were with 0 special team / defensive TDs! Looks like the game has changed. Just look at Brady throwing for 400+ yards in consecutive weeks, yesterday against a defense that should be pretty solid. Brady/Bilichek usually finds out whats the right formula for winning a couple of weeks before everybody else.

So "real touchdowns" are up over week 1 as everyone makes adjustments. (I think of "real touchdowns" like the real interest rate, so it's touchdowns not scored by defense/special teams.) Unless we see officiating change, we may expect another week of overs until the defenses catch up. There will be a time when the unders win for the week, but by then, the average total on the board may be 44.

Several teams are willing to throw 20 times a game or more from shotgun formations and willing to perform hurry up offense strategies has to be impacting teams on defense. There just isn't the time to get the right personnel in defensively when fighting hurry up strategies. Defenders are gassed from the plays happening quickly and the top quarterbacks/receivers are able to exploit it even more than the typical QB. You probably all saw that TD pass that Brady threw against Miami against the defender who was obviously limping after the previous play. The Benglals quick snap the Browns for a big plays as well that first week. The offenses are filled with these playmakers who get any open space they create big gains. Several teams have these types of players who are just phenomenal athletes and OC and coaches are smartening up and writing plays for their players only no matter who he is on the roster to play to their strength. The offensive linemen just seem to be so much more athletic than they were. Originally, set up to do some pass blocking and blow some holes but now these guys look like they have a brain and they aren't so fat. They pick up blitzes, they block the right man, they can run off the line and get ahead of a receiver and be effective. There was a time the defensive linebackers and linemen were way ahead of these guys and more athletic and could easily blitz and get around these guys and blow off their blocks because they were like posts who could move things a foot left and a foot to the right. The Patriots have had an above average offensive line for years. It is possible more big guys are finding being on the offensive line is just as sexy as the defensive line. In last night's game Collinsworth came back several times to the work that Jason Peters does for the Eagles. What a weapon that guy is. There was a great thread last week about the totals moving a few points up and already being adjusted to start the week up. Has to be an entry point somewhere that the under's will be pretty good bets but I've been soundly beaten on my under bets. The closest I had was under 55 yesterday. Belichick pulls the sabermetrician football angle and goes up by 14 setting the game to come 56 which of course it does. Of course it could have come 54 and I would have middled but it didn't work like that.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;46446] The offensive linemen just seem to be so much more athletic than they were. Originally, set up to do some pass blocking and blow some holes but now these guys look like they have a brain and they aren't so fat. They pick up blitzes, they block the right man, they can run off the line and get ahead of a receiver and be effective. There was a time the defensive linebackers and linemen were way ahead of these guys and more athletic and could easily blitz and get around these guys and blow off their blocks because they were like posts who could move things a foot left and a foot to the right. The Patriots have had an above average offensive line for years. It is possible more big guys are finding being on the offensive line is just as sexy as the defensive line. [/QUOTE] My knee-jerk reaction was going to be, "Then why didn't the run-and-shoot from 20 years ago stick around in the NFL?" But then you wrote the paragraph above, and I think you've figured it out. I always enjoyed those Oilers and Falcons teams.

Looks like another track meet brewing with gmen and rams

I am betting every over until 2 weeks in a row lose. These things need to go up like 5 points. Defenses aren't allowed to hit anyone anymore. Last year it was fines. This year is gonna be suspensions. Football is being ruined, but when you can not hit receivers, it opens up 80% of the field that used to be off limit. The NFL is becoming a joke, but I'll let it print money.

The classic example here is NE but other teams now have this as well - two talented tight ends. Teams are coming out in two TE sets, indicating they are going to run the ball. With the two TE sets, they have an offense that can run the ball if the defense sets up in a nickel defense or run one of their TE's down the seam if the defense plays the run. They then go no huddle - not a hurry up but no huddle so the defense can't make adjustments - and now the offense is calling all the shots with favorable matchups on the field. Very, very, very tough to defend leaving all the advantages with the offense.

Rams punting down 12 with zero timeouts and 1:34 remaining. Way to move your win probability from 2% to 0%.