My ideas Baltimore appears to be a slam dunk. If you take them and they win, you won't separate yourself from too many others, since everyone else will be on them too.
My inclination in Survivor Pools is to look for teams playing at home who are not the overwhelming favorite, and who you feel pretty good about. This will save the really good teams (like I think Baltimore is) for later use, and you never know, if Cleve pops up and gets a lucky win, you've separated yourself from a huge amount of people.
I gotta say, S.F. at Minnesota scares me. We just don't know how good the 2-0 Niners really are yet, as they haven't done anything wrong.
If it were me, I'd take Houston over the Jags. As Fezzik noted around a week ago, Jax is garbage. Houston looked mighty good against the Titans, and if they don't bounce off that, I see them winning fairly easily. You'll still have Baltimore saved for a rainy day.