[QUOTE=Superskrub;5933]"DDF are 9-2 so far TY"
As far as i remember, it was the other Way around last year, with double digit favourites covering the first ten games?
How did this change that much in the span of a year, with NFL doing everything they can to even out the teams?
[B]I know a lot of it is caused by variance, but it just seems the bad teams from last year have gone from bad to worse. [/B]
It's crazy seeing a 14-pt. home team dog. Would they be +20 if played in Philly or is there no home field advantage in Oakland?
In soccer it's very normal for big underdogs to play a very conservative game when playing against toprated teams - 11 guys behind the ball - total defense and a very conservative offense. Does the same happen in football? I would guess that eating clock by running the ball a lot could lead to a lot of covers with a win once in a while?[/QUOTE]
Not "a lot of it is caused by variance," but ALL of it is. It's just variance and has no predictive value going forward, except that possibly you might want to bet on regression to the mean, if anything.
As far as your soccer analogy, I don't think it does hold up in US football. Every once in a while, maybe, like with Tennessee vs. Florida earlier this year. But generally, in football, playing conservatively when inferior just gets you 3 and out and the ball in the other team's hands.
