Week 8 Key Teaser Leg

Week 8 Key Teaser Leg 216 Kansas City -7 vs Cleveland Betting on the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL is not a good way to get value but the numbers on this are screaming that the Chiefs need to be teased right now from the line of -7. They're playing a Browns team who is in a real bad spot QB wise. They have scored 17 or less in each game QBed by Brandon Weeden Common sense says that if the coaching staff thought Jason Campbell was even close to Weeden they'd be playing him. The Browns management simply does not want Weeden as their QB. They have made that abundantly clear. They have no choice though but to throw the immobile 29 year old 2nd year QB back there. Vs this Chiefs defense that is blowing the NFL away in QB sacks (one for every 12 opponent pass attempts) this is a real bad match-up. Of the bottom five QBs in the NFL as far as time they hold the ball before throwing, Weeden is the only one who is not a running QB. Kaepernick, Vick etc are all understandable. Weeden is not that type of QB though, so he is pretty much a stationary target back there. The betting numbers say this needs to be bet now. The Chiefs MLine is anywhere from -330 to -360 which is high for a 7 pt have. What this suggests is that this game will move beyond 7 everywhere before long. Locking in your Chiefs teasers now is wise if you intend to bet them.

OK - so we all know this is not a picks site - - - What companions are you looking at with KC?? Sea - Det - Phil - Oak - GB - others ?? your insight please - - -

Betting teasers is one of the best possible ways to invest in football. It is also one of the most mis-used bet options so your question is one that deserves something more then spitting out a few teams to pair with a strong leg. Will start a separate thread to discuss teaser betting. Did not have to commit to any other teams because I play the vast majority of teasers at books that allow Open Teasers and Parlays. Playing multi-leg bets like teasers and parlays in open plays is the far superior way to go. You get to bet your team at the precise moment the line is worth betting and not be forced to include other teams that you may not be ready to bet on yet due to the line that's available etc. Right now I have at least 12 open teaser bets pending at various offshore books that I will fill in as other legs become worthy of including. As far as who to include in a teaser if you don't have open-teaser play available to you, there are several candidates: 103 Carolina -6 220 New England -6.5 222 Cincy -6.5 224 Oak +2.5/+3 227 Atl +2.5 103 Carolina I eliminate because the MLine is cheaper then the price you pay on a teaser leg. MLine or points is the way to play the Panthers if you like them. 105 NEngland is the best of the group. The MLine on them is above the teaser break-even point and the line should settle at 7 so line movement suggests betting now as well. The situation is also good with The Pats off a loss that wasn't necessarily phony (because the Jets did move the ball well) but certainly can be viewed as unlucky at the end. Belichek off a loss and at home again will be a tough one to beat. Pats would be my first choice as a teaser leg if I had to choose, which as was just covered, I don't actually have to. 222 Cincy is very similar to the Pats except I think the line bleeds down rather then up towards the 7. I am on hold with the Bengals and not using them at the moment. Jets +7 might be the value bet at the moment. 224 Oakland will be a somewhat popular play with system and trend guys. The situational stuff mostly lines up with Oakland. Not using them yet, but may. Steelers are at least playing better and may be a couple wins away from thinking they have a shot at something. 227 Atlanta I do not care for. Not the type of team I trust in this spot. Arizona defense can step up at any time and pitch a good game and Atlanta is still something of a mess right now despite what they did to the dysfunctional and highly contagious Buccaneers last week. Falcons won 23-19 vs AZ in Atlanta last year as 10 pt faves. Ryan threw 5 INTs and now has a much easier to defend receiving group. Arz has a few extra days rest and prep so I actually like the Arizona side here and will pass on the Falcons tease. Choice would the Patriots if you need a partner leg now for the Chiefs.

Following up to the Chiefs bet. Jason Campbell will get the start for the Browns this week. I would have preferred the immobile Weeden instead of the immobile Campbell but don't think this will affect the line or the bet much. Campbell is just lower variance type QB. Don't think he will accomplish much vs KC unless they take the week off which is always a possibility with a team in this type of spot. 7-0, seemingly easy opponent and off a big win vs Texans. This is where the coaching staff earns their paychecks getting the team ready for a game like this.

Chiefs line has settled at -7 and the money-line is still a strong -340 or so. KC remains a good value on teasers on game day. The line on the Patriots has dropped to where they are no longer a good value. Better off laying the points or taking the money line of -250. Points at -5.5 at CRIS is best option. The GB Packers are now in teaser range at -8. This is a decent play. The uncertainty of GB with all those injuries makes it just OK. The Vikes with Freeman not starting and what should be a real commitment to AP and the run could play a fairly clean game. I'm sure this will be an ultra-popular play with the public so the line may move up a little. Sharp action likes the Vikes at more than a TD so a Pack win by 3-7 will be a bad result for the books.

Packers now a very good play based on lines. Moneyline is as high as -400 (Stations) on Packers but pts have plummeted to -7 at CRIS, LVH, G Nugget, TI. Teasing to -1 (-262) is a real good deal vs laying the money line. Pack -7 is also much better. Anyone laying the MLine when you have a teaser or -7 available is doing something wrong.