Week One NFL total

Week One NFL total I played 453) Indy/Chicago OVER 40.5 (Station Casinos). Normally, I don't make a bet on an NFL total this early (due to unknown injuries or inclement weather). However, I wanted to catch the value on the key number of 41 in my favor. Since the total has now moved up, you may want to consider this bet only if you can still catch a 41. In my opinion, the market has not adjusted enough the offensive power ratings of both teams. Using both team's 2011 statistics as a benchmark would probably be inaccurate. Last year, the Colts played the full season with a "bottom quartile" quarterback (Collins and Painter).Chicago finished the latter half on 2011 with Caleb Hanie under center. Of all 32 teams, I made my largest upward adjustment to Chicago's offensive power rating. With the adjustments that I made to both teams' total power ratings, I made the total 43.5 on this first week matchup. Replacing Mike Martz as OC, should be worth at least a point of adjustment to the Bears' offensive power rating. His sytem did not fit Chicago's personnel. Cutler was not protected and the team suffered numerous sacks and turnovers because of the Matrz play calling. It should be pointed out that Outland Trophy Winner and first round pick,Gabe Carimi, missed virtually the entire 2011 season. His return to the offensive line should bolster production of this unit. The Bears made some great off season moves which should improve offensive productivity. A healthy Cutler is reunited with Brandon Marshall who should be their "go-to" receiver. Picking up WR Alshon Jeffery in the second round of the draft may look like a steal. With Hester, Bennett and Knox returning, Cutler has some of the best targets in the league.The Bears also picked up RB Michael Bush to give the team a great goal line runner and complement to workhorse Matt Forte. Bush rushed for over 900 yards for the Raiders last season. When handicapping Bears' totals, you need to factor their great punt/kick return units. Chicago's defense is getting a "little long in the tooth." Key members, Urlacher, Peppers, Briggs and Tillman are all north of 30 years of age. Since he just had arthroscopic knee surgery and has missed all of the preseason, I think that is very possible that team leader Urlacher won't suit up for this game. The Colts hired Arians as their new offensive coordinator. He was let go as the Steelers' OC supposedly because he relied too much on the pass and Pittsburgh wanted to have a more balanced attack in 2012. Arians' style should fit in well for first pick, Andrew Luck. The team should be trailing in many of their games this year and Luck will have the opportunity to earn his money. I have watched both of the Colts preseason games and am impressed with Luck's poise and physical skills. He is developing a chemistry with WR Reggie Wayne which should lead to some big plays.Like any highly drafted rookie QB, Luck will have his share of both "pick 6's" and great plays. This is not last years's version of the Colts which had very little chance to put together a successful drive. Indy has completely revamped its defensive strategy with new DC, Manusky. Their two best pass rushers, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, are being asked to play some downs at the linebacker position. Given their age and strengths at rushing the QB, there should be some busted coverages which will result in big plays against this stop unit. Indy is already experiencing cluster injuries on the defense. Last year's leading tackler,Pat Angerer, will not suit up for the opening game. When handicapping this game, I am also assuming that we will get at least a TD or great field postion from either of the defenses or special teams. Good luck, charliej