Week16 Fezzik Thread

WOW Bad Day :eek:[QUOTE=Fezzik;35939]107/108 Minny/Philly UN 20 1h 2 weight (Pinny has this still) 116 Buf +8 1 weight (Ok, week after Miami, but this line is REALLY inflated) L 117/118 Jets UN 17 points -115 2 weight (greek and other spots) L 120 CLEV 3.5 2 weight L 128 GB -3 3 weight (line sure to close -3.5 IMO)W 130 San Diego U44 L 124 Oakland +3 L Good luck to all.......[/QUOTE] Tough Day:eek:

I concur on that. We've had some good days too (earlier in the season), but this wasn't one of them. Oh, well.

[QUOTE=Coolmil;36017]:eek: Tough Day:eek:[/QUOTE] thanks Coolmil

I don't want to overreact, but I think it is very clear..... Beating -110 lines isn't in my future on 'picks' vs. these lines. Blame it on bad luck, poor preparation due to too much work on halftimes/in running/etc, a tougher market, or most likely all of the above. I go back to what I've been saying for the past year. 1. Plenty of great opportunities to win betting sports. 2. REALLY hard to post winners vs. widely available numbers....... I'd like to tell all I will be on My A game all year next year, not just in September, but realistically, my "game" on these is going to get worse next year, not better.....and frankly, I am rapidly considering all these game bets post 10/1 a complete waste of my time, contrasting them with the edge on other things* * In no way does this mean that I think the NFL is 'unbeatable' or 'cannot be beaten midweek'. However, a week or two like the past few, in a bad patch, AND having a series of games I DID finally really like, and stinking up the place is enough for me. I'm a huge believer in working harder to achieve results, and this would improve mine, but the ceiling on what One can achiever vs. W.A. NFL lines is so low, and the time committment so high, it just isn't in my future. I will post SB props, but after a week like this past one, and much more importantly 2 years of coin flipping on widely available selections, I simply have no desire to put up 'picks' with any confidence followers will win. Sorry for the crappy plays guys........

Fezz I thought your NBA last year was good...... how about that? MrTop

As has been said, why play chess when you can play checkers? Regardless of your success rate in the NFL, the energy spent on it will pay higher dividends if applied toward other bets.

This is not criticism, but something to think about. Week after week, I watch you make your picks and they are dead accurate on the way the lines are going to move. There is absolutely huge value in that. The problem is, the past 2-3 years, a lot of sharps have gotten buried (After September) and the lines are still moving with the sharps. I can't make an argument with data, but I watch week after week as you get beat by the good teams. (New England, Indy, Atlanta, etc). Every week, I watch your picks, watch the lines move, and then bet the other side on the faves (see my comment this week on Indy, a few weeks ago on NE vs the Bears). With the lines that keep coming out, I've been riding Indy, NE, and Atlanta and NE and GB overs. They just keep setting them too low. You said it yourself earlier this year. 5 years ago, you said you would have gotten Browns +6 vs NE and this year you got 3 or 3.5. With that said, why not play more favorites and overs? You clearly are good enough at this to change your style a bit. These were my bets yesterday - in years past, these would have been the squarest bets you could make, but given the way the lines are lower on both dogs and totals it seems (Totals are lower on 2Hs as well and buried me early in the season till I started playing essentially only overs) they are working last year and this year. ATL O48.5, Balt -3, Jax U46, STL O39.5, NE O44, NE O26.5, NYJ O35.5, IN -1, NYG O43, Phil O36.5 (canceled), STL ML, NE -6.5, Balt U40. Those went very well. Unfortunatley, my wheel of teasers on Mia, SF, NE, NYJ, Balt, SD, NO, Jax kept it from being a great day. Just food for thought. The NFL is very beatable, but times have really changed. I'd bet you hit 54% if you only post overs and favorites next year. I'll likely add ATL -2 to my O48.5 tonight. No way the home fave should be less than 3. -Sean

The other thing I will add is we need to be playing a lot more halves, team totals and quarters. I think everyone would agree that the lines are getting more accurate. The more accurate the lines, the more valuable a half point. For instance if the game is 49 and you have no opinion, U24.5 or O24 for the half has to be a 53% play. Likewise if you look at team totals, they are often off by 1-2 points and across key numbers (NE 26.5 yesterday for example). Problem is these are very very hard to post as they move quickly. -Sean

Excellent post Sean. I agree. Fezzik, is your new focus going to be primarily 2H betting?

[QUOTE=sean1;36051]The other thing I will add is we need to be playing a lot more halves, team totals and quarters. I think everyone would agree that the lines are getting more accurate. The more accurate the lines, the more valuable a half point. For instance if the game is 49 and you have no opinion, U24.5 or O24 for the half has to be a 53% play. Likewise if you look at team totals, they are often off by 1-2 points and across key numbers (NE 26.5 yesterday for example). Problem is these are very very hard to post as they move quickly. -Sean[/QUOTE] I agree and have been playing overs myself. Although I'm not winning a ton, my over bets are ahead for the year. I make the plays and always think I may be playing the square side (or total in this case) but there are certain patterns that are happening week after week. On Atlanta and over tonight. Something else I do is play the team totals. Have had a lot of luck playing over team totals. Sometimes just one team and sometimes both teams. Unfortunately, thanks to the missed extra point by Dallas the other night I missed the over 26.5 points in their game.