Week9 NFL picks

thats OK, stay at it, looking back at it, we did go AGAINST the best team in NFL and bet on the WORST..... we appreciate your efforts

nice job today with jim caldwell and the colts...nice effort...suck for luck ...caldwell is such a horrible hc...his coaching resume sucks..he got crushed at wf, and just a disaster with the colts.. NICE EFFORT COLTS

[QUOTE=larryphelps;47934]thats OK, ...we appreciate your efforts[/QUOTE] It's Nov 6th, I didn't realize it was April 1st again. Not sure what the "efforts" are you refer to. Not sharing a lick of info as to why these are bets we should be on, or the effort of typing out bets that lose? I've told Anthony time and time again - your website will do much better if you give insight into the plays. When they lose at least we know whey we were on them to begin with. No analysis, no logic + losing plays week after week is a losing business model.

Fezzik is phenomenal at predicting line movement. The problem is line movement is not winning anymore. Out of about 1000 bets this year, I've beaten the closing line on about 58% of them and placed the majority at -105 or +1/2 a point over the market and have had just two winning weeks since Sept 1st. If you are on the right side of many line moves this year you are getting hammered. (At least I am)

Chin up old man. I don't care who you are, what you've accomplished or who your sources are. You WILL get smashed by the Variance factor from time to time and it can last long enough to kill an entire season. Why do you think those that know, know that no one can sustain a win rate above mid to high 50 percents? As you are well aware, a bad run will consume a good run and knock down a nice mid-60% ATS stint down to 50%. Then, you have to, as you say, work hard, keep playing good numbers and dig out. We get spoiled by our success and expect it to run indefinitely. Doesn't work that way. We have to eat the bad runs and persevere. Keep working hard, betting good numbers and staying positive and you'll once again rise to the top.

Echo above comments , keep at it . I know the pro betting syndicates this year in the NFL have not done anything also - to be honest they bet the same stuff as you do...... no surprise there as often the best bettors in the business find themselves on the same side more times than not........

Agree with the sentiment stated. It's just math. If you're upset, you're betting too much. If it weren't for variance, it would be too easy, and then it wouldn't work. [QUOTE=IceTea;47939] I've told Anthony time and time again - your website will do much better if you give insight into the plays. When they lose at least we know whey we were on them to begin with. No analysis, no logic + losing plays week after week is a losing business model.[/QUOTE] It's just a guess, but I think his site is doing OK.

Here is a sample from another board of the kind of stuff people are saying. Sure hope you guys are not losing out on the free money this year the Colts are handing out. I know I have said it since before game 1 but it is so money in the bank betting those 1H and game sides against Indy. Linemakers and the betting world just don't see how broken this team is. Use it...and cash it. Beyond frustrating. As was said earlier we bet against the undefeated team that keeps winning and on the winless team that keeps losing. One of the first things I was told as a gambler was bet ON the streak or dont bet because if you keep betting against it you could lose indefinitely but on it you can only lose once. We seem to disregard that because of a power rating. Hopefully its hip to be square doesnt continue all year.

NE s 16-0 team went 2-8 ATS down the strech..... But I have to agree, it is beyond frustrating to bet idiot teams, idiot coaches, when the numbers say 'bet it' .............and get your teeth kicked in.

Watched the first half of that game and Curtis Painter was atrocious. One of the least accurate QB's I've seen in the NFL and especially in that offense which is all about pinpoint passing. Which leads to the bigger questions of what the Colts have seen in this guy to keep him around for three years.