Week9 NFL picks

Ok ok so Fez got the memo a few weeks late re: the colts...its okay...Fez is one of the greatest sports bettors I know...he will bounce back ten fold for you loyal followers...just be patient and the rewards will come...Fins up!

Actually, I think I've blown it this year........... In the past I've just actively handicapped the handicappers, and watched the market like a hawk. This year, I've devoted tons of time to actively make MY numbers on games, along with another NFL specialist. It's clear to me this method has us with spot-on power ratings, but my weekly selections have been disastrous. Not to mention the tremendous tmie it has taken to do all this. I'm going back to 80% of my old methods............ this means I will likely be releasing on Saturday. And I'm not going to release stuff that I don't think has value. I know it sucks being down huge, and then only get a few plays, but I am only going to give out stuff I truly feel is solid. In a losting streak, you buckle up and tighten up. Note, it is AMAZING to me how well we can make good numbers on GOYS and lookahead lines.........and equally amazing how Philly -5 bets have been losing all year long...........

I just don;t understand how a very experienced bettor like yourself is having trouble deciding to go with power ranking, line moves, other people etc. At this point in your career shouldn't you have it nailed down what you do each and every year? Changing mideseason just screams like you don't know what your doing?

I would cut him some slack here. I'm sure someone should give him some smelling salts. I feel like I went a round with Klitchko myself and I think Fez went a 10 rounder with him. If I took Fez's write up here too literally----and I"m LMAO----I would think that he has given the board plays he knowingly had no value when he gave them out and he didn't truly believe were solid. On behalf of the board I'm looking forward to receiving the plays that have value and you truly believe are solid. LOL. From my betting perspective, I think Calsport had a good point: I don't think variance has been too kind to the plays making it on this board. And with Fez comments regarding some other bets he has made this past week I got to tell you that variance sounds worse. But I really don't feel that too many of these bets were bad bets. I'm sure many didn't beat the closer but I think all of us out here or who have read the great post by frank b are familiar a little where some ideas come from. The 4 star bets?---well they have underachieved so far but a few of them sounded pretty good at least to me.

I like Oak 7, Pitt -3, Den O42, Indy U38, Buff 5.5, TB 3.5, WA 4, NO -1, STL 3, Balt -6.5, NYG 3.5. Thus if you play the other sides you should go about 8-3 if the season trend holds up

[QUOTE=Fezzik;47968]Actually, I think I've blown it this year........... In the past I've just actively handicapped the handicappers, and watched the market like a hawk. This year, I've devoted tons of time to actively make MY numbers on games, along with another NFL specialist. It's clear to me this method has us with spot-on power ratings, but my weekly selections have been disastrous. Not to mention the tremendous tmie it has taken to do all this. I'm going back to 80% of my old methods............ this means I will likely be releasing on Saturday. And I'm not going to release stuff that I don't think has value. I know it sucks being down huge, and then only get a few plays, but I am only going to give out stuff I truly feel is solid. In a losting streak, you buckle up and tighten up. Note, it is AMAZING to me how well we can make good numbers on GOYS and lookahead lines.........and equally amazing how Philly -5 bets have been losing all year long...........[/QUOTE] Quick question. If you have been 100% going off you and your partner's numbers... and your power ratings are spot on, why have the majority of NFL plays come so late in the week? I know you don't have to wait that long to get down enough on NFL. This week it was Wednesday for the first plays. Last week it was Thursday I think. Those aren't really the days most guys going off their own numbers are going to fire at a market that opens Sunday night.

I've used EVERYTHINGthis year. I've just spend the time to do power ratings myself on every team in addition to my normal stuff. I'm still listening to lots of guys I respect in the NFl as well.......much of that input doesn't come in until late in the week. OF COURSE, I am not just selecting purely on power ratings, I look at the key trends and the other things.........one thing I've done less of is spending lots of time actively listening to the radio. In the past, I'd spend 2 hours a day listening to the sports memo, etc. and others. I've found that the quality of the radio info. out there has gone way down IMO.....too many handicappers doing too many sports.......

keep the head up - be conserative with the bankroll - steady yourself...... stiff drink once in a while is no harm i.e brandy (preferably hennessy) it will clear the head and settle the nerves... people might find this funny but i swear by it

[QUOTE=Justin1820;47969]I just don;t understand how a very experienced bettor like yourself is having trouble deciding to go with power ranking, line moves, other people etc. At this point in your career shouldn't you have it nailed down what you do each and every year? Changing mideseason just screams like you don't know what your doing?[/QUOTE] I think it's fair to question ones methodology (an even more common to do so when they aren't doing as well as some might expect) but I don't think it's correct to assume they "have it nailed down each and every year." You always have to be adjusting in my opinion, because what worked last year and five years ago, doesn't necessarily continue to work. I know I am constantly making adjustments to my model. While, the fundamentals are basically the same, I am always trying to find new edges, throwing some things out that haven't worked as well the past few years and trying to find new ideas. Ideally, new methods would be run through the mill to make sure they have worked in the past but tweaking ones methods is something I absolutely think needs to be done annually.

For someone who talks with Fezzik in Vegas every week when I am there, I can tell you he is very intelligent when it comes to this market. Spending five minutes talking to him tells you all you need to know about what he does. Other than he talks faster than my brain can comprehend he has made me a better sports bettor. I know he's always giving me crap about being a "handicapper" but not understanding the math as well as he does, etc. The problems with these forums sometimes is you don't really get to know who the person is. And, Fezzik is unique, in that he isn't so much a handicapper like so many people on forums, but one who is trying to find value in the market in many different ways through the numbers. People who expect him to just give "picks" more like I do aren't really taking advantage of what he is bringing to the table. Understanding what he brings to the table will make you so much smarter from a numbers perspective. Sometimes, I think that is hard to translate in what he is doing.